ACUS01 KWNS 210558 SWODY1 SPC AC 210556 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1256 AM CDT SUN MAR 21 2010 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING A DEEP CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AT 12Z SUNDAY WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON...AND THEN TURN NEWD REACHING NRN AL/ SRN APPALACHIANS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCLUDE OVER NERN AR...WHILE A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPS OVER NWRN AL BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THIS LATTER LOW TRACKING NNEWD TOWARD KY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS TO CENTRAL GA AND NRN FL BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT WILL ADVANCE E/SEWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...WHILE THE NRN EXTENT SPREADS NEWD THROUGH SC AND MUCH OF NC. STRONG SLY LLJ /40-50 KT/ EXTENDING FROM THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO AL AT 12Z WILL TRANSLATE ENEWD THROUGH NRN FL/GA TODAY AND THEN THROUGH THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY EVENING/OVERNIGHT. ...FL/SRN GA... EXTENSIVE AREA OF CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES PER REGIONAL RADAR/ SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE SERN STATES/FAR NRN FL TODAY. THIS WILL TEND TO INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING TO LOCATIONS FARTHER S ACROSS THE SRN/ERN FL PENINSULA. INCREASING SLY WINDS WILL ADVECT MOISTURE NWD TODAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS S FL AND UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S INTO SRN GA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MUCAPE OF 500-800 J/KG ACROSS THIS PART OF THE PENINSULA BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH STRONGER SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS WILL SPREAD INTO GA...SUFFICIENT STRENGTHENING OF THE WIND FIELDS OVER FL TODAY WILL SUPPORT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /35-40 KT/ FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS...PRIMARILY WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR GREATER SEVERE COVERAGE AND PRECLUDES THE INTRODUCTION OF A CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. FARTHER N ACROSS NRN FL/SRN GA...STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR/LARGER HODOGRAPH CURVATURE EXPECTED ALONG THE AXIS OF THE LLJ WOULD SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS...BUT EVEN WEAKER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT. ...ERN CAROLINAS... AN AXIS OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S-LOWER 60S WILL ADVECT INLAND FROM THE GULF STREAM THROUGH THE ERN CAROLINAS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS NEWD SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME DESTABILIZATION WITH MUCAPES GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG. DESPITE STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED ROTATING STORMS...MODELS DIFFER IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS AS CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTERCEPTS THE MOIST AXIS. THE NON-ZERO THREAT MAINTAINS LOW SEVERE WIND/TORNADO PROBABILITIES FOR THIS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. ..PETERS/JEWELL.. 03/21/2010
ACUS02 KWNS 210439 SWODY2 SPC AC 210438 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1138 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE CUTOFF UPPER LOW SITUATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE EAST TO BE CENTERED OVER NRN AL OR SRN TN EARLY MONDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL REACH CNTRL NC OR SRN VA BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD. EARLY MONDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM AN OCCLUDED LOW IN KY SEWD THROUGH NC THEN SWD TO THE TIP OF THE FL PENINSULA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFF THE NC AND VA COASTS DURING THE DAY WHILE THE OCCLUDED LOW LIFTS NWD THROUGH ERN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY. ...ERN NC THROUGH CNTRL/SERN VA... SELY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT PARTIALLY MODIFIED AIR FROM THE GULF STREAM NWWD THROUGH ERN NC AND VA WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S INLAND...BUT THE MOISTER WARM SECTOR WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. THE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE LESS THAN 500 J/KG. INITIAL BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING EARLY MONDAY WITHIN ZONE OF ASCENT ALONG WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND SHIFT NEWD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND ERN NC DURING THE DAY. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR. SOME OF THE CONVECTION OVER ERN NC/SERN VA WILL BE NEAR SURFACE BASED AND COULD POSE A LIMITED RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE EVENT. ...OH VALLEY AND CNTRL APPALACHIANS AREA... BAND OF CONVECTION WILL EXTEND NWWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE OH VALLEY AREA EARLY MONDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT NEWD DURING THE DAY. A LIMITED MOIST AXIS WILL ADVECT NWWD ALONG THE SELY LOW LEVEL JET WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40F TO NEAR 50F POSSIBLE. SOME POTENTIAL FOR DIABATIC WARMING ALONG THE MOIST AXIS WILL EXIST IN WAKE OF EARLY CONVECTION AND...GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT WITH -20C IN NERN QUADRANT OF UPPER LOW...MLCAPE COULD APPROACH 500 J/KG. ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS EAST OF OCCLUDED LOW EXHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL TURNING WITH HEIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY SEVERE RISK IN THIS AREA STILL APPEARS MARGINAL AND WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL UPON SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION. ..DIAL.. 03/21/2010
ACUS03 KWNS 210543 SWODY3 SPC AC 210542 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 AM CDT SUN MAR 21 2010 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z ...SYNOPSIS... THE ERN U.S. CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE AN UPSTREAM OPEN WAVE TROUGH ADVANCES THROUGH THE WRN STATES. AT THE SURFACE AN OCCLUDED LOW WILL LIFT NWD ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SWD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY...CNTRL PLAINS...CNTRL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN AREAS. ...DISCUSSION... DESPITE RETURN TO SELY WINDS OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO...THE GULF BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY OWING TO PRIOR INTRUSION OF CP AIR. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SWRN STATES AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH AND SWRN EXTENSION OF BAROCLINIC ZONE. PROSPECTS FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE U.S. WILL BE LOW TO NON-EXISTENT AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ..DIAL.. 03/21/2010
ACUS48 KWNS 200754 SWOD48 SPC AC 200754 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010 VALID 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IS THAT ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SRN STREAM UPPER TROUGHS WILL AMPLIFY SEWD REACHING THE SRN PLAINS LATE DAY 4 /WEDNESDAY/ INTO DAY 5 /THURSDAY/. A PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS WILL BEGIN RETURNING NWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS WARM SECTOR BY DAY 4 AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DAY 5. SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF TX WEDNESDAY THEN EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY THURSDAY. EXTENT OF ANY SUCH THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY CONDITIONAL UPON THE QUALITY OF GULF MOISTURE RETURN WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME GIVEN PRIOR INTRUSION OF CP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF AND LIMITED TIME FOR BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY PRIOR TO ARRIVAL OF THE IMPULSE. BEYOND DAY 5...MODEL SOLUTIONS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISPERSIVE WITH LOW PREDICTABILITY. ..DIAL.. 03/20/2010
FXUS63 KDVN 201956
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
256 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
MORNING ANALYSIS HAD THE UPPER TROF OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
ROCKIES INTO WEST TX. WEAK H8 LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SRN OK WITH A
STATIONARY H8 FRONT AND STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING NE THROUGH
SE IA INTO SRN LM. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD THE SURFACE FRONT
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER INTO THE EAST TX WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER WRN
OK. A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS CURRENTLY EXIST ACROSS THE CWFA. DRY
NE FLOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GRT LAKES HAS SHUT DOWN
MOST OF THE SN OVER THE NW THIRD OF THE CWFA WITH THE NW CORNER
PROBABLY SEEING SOME SUN AND TEMPS APPROACHING 40 DEGREES. OVER THE
SERN 2/3RDS THOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE H8 BOUNDARY AND
FGEN CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BANDS OF -SN/SN WITH TEMPS HOLDING IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
SHORT RANGE MODELS SUPPORT SNOW CONTINUING OVER THE SERN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE CWFA INTO THIS EVENING AS THE TX UPPER LOW HEADS INTO
THE MS VALLEY AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE SLIDES EAST ACROSS NRN MO AND WRN
IL AND LOW LVL CONVERGENCE IS MAINTAINED NEAR THE STATIONARY H8
BOUNDARY. AREA OF -SN/SN CURRENTLY MOVING NE THROUGH NW MO SHOULD
HOLD TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE CWFA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SNOW FALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO POSSIBLY 3 INCHES BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE
FAR SRN CWFA. THE NW THIRD SHOULD REMAIN PCPN FREE AS NELY FLOW
CONTINUES TO FEED DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE THE
ADVISORY WITH THIS ISSUANCE. IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MINOR BUT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE ROUNDS OF MOD SNOW...ESPECIALLY
AFTER SUNSET...AND WITH ROAD SURFACES COOLING OFF WITH THE SNOW
EARLIER TODAY...FEEL THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR SOME LESSER
TRAVELLED ROADS...BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES TO BECOME SLIPPERY.
BY MIDNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE PCPN WINDING DOWN AS BETTER FORCING
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. KEPT TONIGHTS TEMP CLOSE TO THE LOWER MOS
NUMBERS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AHEAD OF SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING
INTO NW IA AND HIGH CLOUDS THINNING. CLOUDS AND PCPN SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS FROM DROPPING MUCH OVER THE SERN HALF OF THE CWFA.
FOR SUNDAY THE SERN CWA WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW
AROUND THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER OH VALLEY SO EXPECT
CLOUDS TO LINGER THERE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. WILL ALSO KEEP SOME
LOW CHANCE POPS GOING. PCPN BY THEN SHOULD BE MAINLY -RA AS WARMER
AIR WRAPS IN FROM THE NE. THE NW THOUGH SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE SUN SHOULD HELP TEMPS IN THE NW RECOVER INTO THE
MID/UPPER 40S WHILE THE CLOUDS IN THE SE WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING
MUCH ABV THE LOW 40S. ..DLF..
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...
WX TO BE GENERALLY QUIET SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AS THE LAST REMNANTS OF
THE WEEKEND STORM EXITS THE AREA. WET GROUND...CLEARING SKIES...AND
DECREASING WINDS COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. FOR NOW WILL ONLY GO WITH PATCHY FOG SUN NIGHT AS
MODELS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT MIXED REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL. QUIET WX IS
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED BUT MODELS INDICATE SOME FORCING WITH
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS LOWERING. THEREFORE...WILL GO WITH
SCHC POPS WITH THE IDEA THAT SPRINKLES ARE THE MORE PROBABLE OUTCOME.
WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. PHASING
ISSUES WITH THE RESPECTIVE ENERGIES AND SMOOTHING OF MODEL SOLUTIONS
ARE CONTRIBUTING TO DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS. GFS/UKMET WOULD
SUGGEST MOST OF THE TIME PERIOD BEING DRY WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF BRUSH
THE SOUTH WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. EXTRAPOLATION OF THE WRF BEYOND F84
SUGGESTS IT COULD GO EITHER WAY. THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
SCHC POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONFINE THEM TO THE SOUTHERN HALF
TO THIRD OF THE CWFA.
FRIDAY ON...GENERALLY DRY WX LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE AREA.
SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON TIMING BUT THE GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST ANOTHER SYSTEM
POSSIBLY AFFECTING OR PASSING VERY CLOSE TO THE AREA THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEKEND.
...08...
&&
.AVIATION...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW LIFTING NE OUT OF MO SHOULD RETURN/KEEP MVFR
TO IFR CONDITOINS AT KBRL/KMLI. KDBQ/KCID EXPECTED TO BE JUST
NORTH OF THE SIGNIFICANT PCPN THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT A PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS/VSBY IN -SN IS POSSIBLE. AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECT
ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE SE OF KDBQ/KCID. SOME LIGHT FOG IS
POSSIBLE BY SUNRISE THOUGH AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. 06Z-12Z KMLI/KBRL
TO REMAIN UNDER AN MVFR CLOUD DECK WITH VSBYS OF 3-5SM AT TIMES
IN -SN. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT KMLI AFTER
15Z BUT KBRL WILL BE ON THE FRINGE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND OH
VALLEY LOW PRESSURE...SO MVFR CONDITIONS MAY HANG ON THROUGH MID
DAY SUNDAY. ..DLF..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR DES
MOINES-HENRY IA-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR HANCOCK-
HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT FOR CLARK-
SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
DLF/08
FXUS63 KLOT 210702
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
202 AM CDT SUN MAR 21 2010
.DISCUSSION...
258 PM CDT
BAND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION CONTINUES ALONG STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE WITH HEAVIEST NOW ALONG I-55 CORRIDOR. THERE HAS BEEN A
GRADUAL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY...WITH SNOW DIMINISHING TOWARD
WI BORDER. RAIN-SNOW LINE APPEARS TO BE ALONG I-55. LATEST
SURFACE OBS SHOW PRECIP HAS CHANGED TO SNOW AT PIA BUT RAIN AT
PNT. FOR OVERNIGHT WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS S AND SW PART OF
FORECAST AREA WITH LOWER POPS NEAR WI BORDER. EXPECT ALL SNOW
NORTH BUT A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AND MAYBE SOME SLEET ALONG I-55
CORRIDOR. FAR SE PART OF AREA SHOULD JUST SEE RAIN. SOME AREAS...S
OF CHICAGO TO OTTAWA...COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BUT MOSTLY ON GRASSY AREAS WITH LITTLE
OR NO TRAVEL IMPACTS. OVERALL TREND IN MODELS IS FOR THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS UPPER LOW SPINS
UP IN SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. LOW LEVEL TEMPS GRADUALLY
WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY SUN MORNING. AT THE SAME TIME RH IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE OF -10C TO -15C DECREASES. THUS ONLY EXPECT
A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IN THE EARLY MORNING...THEN JUST A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN THE REST OF THE DAY SUNDAY.
AS UPPER LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE APPALACHIANS MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL STAY SE OF FORECAST AREA. EXPECT CLEARING
N TO S ACROSS FORECAST AREA. TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER SOMEWHAT SUNDAY
WITHOUT PRECIP...AND EVEN MORE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH INCREASING
ISOLATION. EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE LAKE WITH WEAK
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. WINDS MAY SHIFT SW BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GFS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF
IN BRINGING WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING. EXPECT TO SEE SOME CLOUDINESS BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SPRINKLE. NOT A LOT OF COOLING BEHIND THIS FRONT BUT LAKE
INFLUENCE WILL BE ENHANCED WITH SYNOPTIC NE WINDS.
YET ANOTHER LOW TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. AT
THIS TIME WILL INCLUDE A CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTH...OTHERWISE DRY.
ALLSOPP
&&
.AVIATION...
200 AM CDT
0600 UTC TAFS...MVFR AND AREAS OF IFR IN -SN/-RASN/-DZ TO PERSIST
TIL PRE-DAWN ACROSS CHI AREA TERMINALS THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND
SUNRISE. KRFD TO REMAIN VFR. NE SFC WINDS GENERALLY 10-12 KT
TODAY WITH SOME OCNL 15-18 KT THIS MORNING. WINDS DROP BLO 10 KT
FOR THIS EVE.
SHORT WAVE THAT HAS BEEN LIFTING NORTHWARD OVER NORTHEASTERN MO
HAS SPREAD A BIT HEAVIER LIGHT SNOW BACK INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND NE
IL AS OF 05Z WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES REPORTED UNDER STRONGER RADAR
ECHOES. THIS SHORT WAVE IS STARTING TO SHEAR NORTHWESTWARD AS IT
HAS MOVED THROUGH THE NE QUAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND IS NOW TURNING
TOWARD TO NW.
UPPER TROUGH MOVING E FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TO SUPPRESS NORTHWARD EXTEND OF ANY REMAINING PRECIP TO THE
S OF THE LOCAL TERMINALS BY 12Z...SAVE POSSIBLY KGYY DUE TO ITS
SOUTHEASTERN-MOST LOCATION.
CONTINUED ADVECTION OF LOW DEW POINT AIR ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
HAS RESULTED IN VFR CEILINGS PREVAILING EXCEPT UNDER SOUTHERN
PORTION OF PRECIP BAND WHERE DRYING HAMPERED BY CONTINUED
MOISTURE ADDITION FROM ABOVE VIA PRECIP...AND A BIT OF MOISTURE
BEING BROUGHT INLAND OFF OF FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MI.
WITH CENTER OF UPPER LOW MOVING E ACROSS NORTHERN MS AND AL
TONIGHT ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OF EDGE OF ASSOCIATED CLOUD
SHIELD TO REACH THE LOCAL TERMINALS.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
224 PM...A COLD FRONT/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM NEW
ENGLAND SOUTHWEST TO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO....WITH A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES. NEW LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THIS COLD FRONT OVER ARKANSAS TONIGHT
THEN SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE DEEPENING.
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES WILL SAG SOUTH AS ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY SUNDAY.
AS A RESULT OF THIS COMPLEX PATTERN...LIGHT AND VRB WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT.
ANY AREA OF LIGHT WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL THE RIDGE WEAKENS. FURTHER
SOUTH... IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING GRADIENT FROM THE LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WHEN A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKE. THIS NORTHEAST FLOW COULD
BE A BIT STRONG A TIMES...15-20KTS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS POSSIBLE. WITH A SHORT BREAK IN WINDS EXPECTED SUNDAY
MORNING... WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRU 12Z SUNDAY
MAINLY FOR WAVE ACTION. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
FXUS63 KILX 210520 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1220 AM CDT SUN MAR 21 2010 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 857 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010 CURRENT FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK...AS BAND OF LIGHT PRECIP CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE KILX CWA. RADAR LOOPS HAVE SHOWN A GENERAL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP THIS EVENING AND THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS 850MB FRONT WEAKENS AND SHIFTS FURTHER NORTHWEST. LIGHT SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING WEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER...BUT AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS IN ALOFT...SNOW WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH RAIN. NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED...PERHAPS AROUND ONE HALF INCH ACROSS KNOX AND STARK COUNTIES. FURTHER EAST...A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE I-55 CORRIDOR...WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. WILL SEND A ZONE UPDATE TO REMOVE SNOW MENTION FROM I-55 ZONES...AND TO LOWER POPS ACROSS THE E/SE. BARNES && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1220 AM CDT SUN MAR 21 2010 IFR/LOW MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AT SPI...PIA AND BMI OVERNIGHT. DEC IS IFR NOW BUT COULD IMPROVE TOWARD MORNING AS WARMER AIR AND HIGHER CIGS ARE LIFTED NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE AREA. BASED ON MODEL RH FIELDS...SPI AND BMI SHOULD SEE CIGS LIFT INTO MVFR CATEGORY DURING THE DAY. CMI IS ALREADY VFR AND THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING WHEN CIGS DROP INTO MVFR LEVELS. LIGHT PCPN CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND WILL AFFECT SPI AND PIA FROM NOW UNTIL MORNING TIMEFRAME. PCPN WILL THEN DISSIPATE AND LIKELY REMAIN DRY OVER ALL TAF SITES. HOWEVER...PCPN SHOULD RETURN TO SPI...DEC AND CMI AFTER 03Z... BUT SHOULD BE ON LIGHT SIDE SO WILL JUST INCLUDE VCSH FOR NOW. CIGS SHOULD ALSO BE MVFR. WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME GUSTS. AUTEN && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 142 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010 MAIN CONCERN IS PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNT OF SNOW/ICE THAT MAY ACCUMULATE TONIGHT IN OUR NW CWA. THE 12Z MODELS ARE IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD AND WARM LAYERS ABOVE THE GROUND...AS WELL AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PROGRESSION OUT OF OUR SE CWA. A COMPLICATED AIR PATTERN EXISTS ALOFT...AS THE 850 MB FRONT WILL BE MOVING NORTH AND WEST ACROSS OUR CWA AT THE SAME TIME THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR MIXED PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS WARM AIR STRENGTHENS ABOVE 900 MB...WHILE COLD AIR MAINTAINS THEN SLOWLY ERODES BELOW 900 MB. WILL GO WITH A COMBO OF NAM/GFS FOR THE SHORT TERM...THEN SWING TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR THE EXTENDED. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE PRECIP INTENSITY HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN IN THE LAST HOUR...WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF HEAVIER PRECIP LIFTING NORTH FROM MISSOURI TOWARD OUR WESTERN CWA. THE MODELS SHOW THE BULK OF OUR PRECIP COMING THIS EVENING...WITH A LET UP BEGINNING AFTER MIDNIGHT. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A TOUGH CALL. THE RAIN SNOW LINE APPEARS TO HAVE STOPPED ADVANCING TO THE SE...AND HAS SET UP ROUGHLY ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER. SOME SLEET WAS REPORTED EARLIER TODAY NW OF THE IL RIVER...BUT HAS CHANGED TO SNOW FOR THE MOST PART. WITH THE ADVANCING WARM AIR ALOFT...PRECIP MAY CHANGE BACK TO SLEET AT TIMES DUE TO MELTING ALOFT. HAVE GONE WITH RAIN/SNOW FOR JUST SOUTH OF THE IL RIVER...AND SNOW AND SLEET FOR NW OF THE IL RIVER. I KEPT POPS THE SAME AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. A BREAK IN THE PRECIP IS INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY SUNDAY...UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS OUT OF THE SOUTH TOWARD SOUTHERN IL. BY THAT TIME THE AIR ALOFT WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN EVERYWHERE IN OUR CWA. WE WENT WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE SE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SLIGHTS ELSEWHERE. SUNDAY NIGHT I WENT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR RAIN SOUTHEAST OF I-70...WITH LIKELY POPS UP TO SHELBYVILLE TO CHAMPAIGN. LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER MONDAY MORNING IN THE SOUTHEAST...WITH DECREASING CHANCES OF RAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MON NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SATURDAY. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KLSX 210518
AFDLSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
1218 AM CDT SUN MAR 21 2010
.UPDATE...
/905 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010/
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AS WARM AIR ALOFT ALREADY MIXING SNOW WITH
SLEET AND RA/FZRA ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI. FORCING AND FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT FROM NORTHWESTERN CWA TO SOUTHERN CWA
OVERNIGHT AS ENTIRE STORM SYSTEM DEEPENS TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST RUC
PROGS 850 TEMPERATURES TO BE 2 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE
ENTIRE CWA BY 12Z. IF THIS PANS OUT...THE ADVISORIES MAY BE
DROPPED EARLY AS PRECIPITATION TURNS TO ALL RAIN.
CVKING
&&
.DISCUSSION...
/318 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010/
PLAN ON LEAVING GOING ADVISORY AS IS FOR THIS FORECAST. MODELS
REMAIN IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CLOSED CURRENTLY OVER THE
SRN PLAINS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON SUNDAY BEFORE LIFTING NEWD IN THE MID ATLANTIC. RAIN/SNOW
OVER THE NWRN HALF OF THE CWA CURRENTLY IS BEING GENERATED BY
DECENT 800-600MB FRONTOGENESIS WHICH IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING...GREATEST
LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE SRN CWA WHERE MID
LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS/LOW-MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL
MARKEDLY INCREASE. FORCING IN THE NRN PART OF THE CWA WILL
DECREASE BRINGING ONLY SLGT CHC/CHC POPS FOR THE WINTRY MIX. FOCUS
FOR PRECIP WILL THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE SERN CWA BY LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY AS UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT.
THIS INTENSE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP WARM AIR AROUND IT...WITH
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM/GFS INDICATING THAT THERMAL
PROFILES IN THE AREA CURRENTLY SEEING SNOW WILL CLIMB ABOVE
+1C IN THE 950-850MB LEVEL...AND EVENTUALLY ABOVE +3C BY MIDNIGHT
WHICH FAVORS SNOW CHANGING TO SLEET AND THEN RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY DEPENDING OF SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THE
HEAVIEST AXIS OF ADDITIONAL SNOW/SLEET OF UP TO 2" WILL LIE
NORTHWEST OF A COU-UIN LINE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED THE MENTION OF
-FZRA OVER CNTRL/NERN MO AND W CNTRL IL LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AS LOWER ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO WARM...BUT DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH ICE ACCUMULATION. PRECIPITATION AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING SWD AND
GROUND TEMPS ACCORDING TO MO AG WX OBS ARE IN THE MID 30S TO
AROUND 40.
DID BACK OFF ON HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT THE NEXT TWO DAYS BASED ON
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION.
MAIN QUESTION FOR THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST IS TIMING AND
AREAL EXTEND OF PRECIPITATION WITH NEXT CLOSED LOW MOVING INTO THE
CNTRL CONUS LATE NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME
MINOR CONTINUITY ISSUES AND DISAGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH/TIMING OF
THIS SYSTEM...THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GO CONTINUE CHANCE OF
SHRA OVER PARTS OF THE CWA FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
THE FORECAST DEPTH OF THIS CLOSED LOW WILL NOT BE AS DEEP AS THE
ONE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
RELATIVELY WARM...SO HAVE NOT MENTION OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
BRITT/BYRD
&&
.AVIATION...
/1201 AM CDT SUN MAR 21 2010/
PRIMARY CONCERN THIS TAF PD CONTINUES TO BE PTYPE AT KUIN/KCOU AS
WARMER AIR WRAPS INTO THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. -SN HAS
TRANSITIONED TO A MIX OF -PL /PER SPOTTER REPORTS/ AND -FZRA.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE 24HR TAF PD BEFORE
DECREASING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FM THE AREA.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...SPOTTY -RA CONTINUES TO PLAGUE KSTL/KSUS
TONIGHT AND HAVE COVERED THIS WITH A TEMPO GROUP SINCE IT IS
DIFFICULT TO TIME EACH BATCH OF RAIN. CIGS WILL RISE AND MAY
BECOME VFR TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PD.
KANOFSKY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-
MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-SHELBY MO.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADAMS
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
FXUS63 KPAH 210456 AAB AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1156 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010 .UPDATE... DISCUSSION FOR 06Z SUNDAY ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE. && .DISCUSSION... /PREVIOUSLY ISSUED 1243 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010/ 17Z FRONTAL POSITION ON NW DOORSTEP OF FA...SEPARATING 60S/NR 70 ACROSS FA FROM 30S OVER MUCH OF MO/BEHIND FRONT. THE NAM HAS A GOOD GRIP ON THE NEAR TERM CONDITIONS INCLUDING PCPN. IT MODELS POPS IN VERY SLOW TONIGHT...WITH A DRY EVENING FOR ALL BUT WRN SEMO...MOST POPS COMING IN LATE TONIGHT/AFT MIDNIGHT. IN THE FAR EAST...ARGUABLY THE POPS HOLD OFF TIL TOMORROW...BUT COLLAB CONSENSUS MAY BE TO RIDE A 20 OR SO THERE...WILL MONITOR THRU PRESS TIME BEFORE FINAL CALL. SUN IS A CLOUDY/COOL/WET DAY. ALL MODELS ROTATE UPPER/SURFACE LOWS ACROSS MS VALLEY WITH CATEGORICAL POPS. ONLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY INDICES SUPPORT THUNDER...BUT WITH SPC SWODY2 AND INHERITED SLGT CHC T...CANT ARGUE ENOUGH TO TAKE IT OUT...THOUGH DID TAPER IT TO MAINLY EASTERN 1/2 REGION (E OF MS RIVER) SUNDAY...AND WILL MONITOR THIS TOO THRU PRESS TIME BEFORE FINAL CALL. MON S/B MAINLY AN EARLY DAY POP AS WE WASH OUT THE CRUD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. DO NOT BELIEVE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC TEMPS SUPPORT FROZEN PCPN AT THIS TIME...SO KEEPING ALL LIQUID AS DID PREDECESSORS. AFTER THAT...MID WEEK DRYING IS FOLLOWED BY LATE WEEK RETURN POPS. BOTH GFS/EC MOVE IT ON THRU...THOUGH EC IS A LITTLE MORE HIGH AMP WITH THE PATTERN AND AS SUCH IS SLOWER WITH TRACKING THE OPEN WAVE ACROSS THE AREA...STILL DOING SO PRIOR TO WEEKEND ONSET THOUGH. FAVORED NAM/THEREFORE MET MOS SHORT TERM TEMPS/TDS WITH SLIGHT COLLAB ADJUSTMENTS. && .AVIATION... MAIN ADJUSTMENT FROM THE 00Z TO 06Z SUNDAY FORECAST ISSUANCE WAS A MORE RAPID BACKING OF THE WINDS AT EACH OF THE TAF SITES AT THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. I HAD TO CONSIDER A MORE RAPID REDUCTION TO MVFR CEILINGS AT KCGI THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BY 12Z SUNDAY...LIFR TO VLIFR CEILINGS WILL DOMINATE KCGI/KPAH TAF SITES WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES AS SURFACE LOW AND RAIN MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. SIMILAR CEILINGS WILL MOVE OVER THE KEVV/KOWB TAF SITES AFTER 21Z SUNDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SMITH
FLUS43 KDVN 201009 HWODVN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 505 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-211000- BENTON IA-BUCHANAN IA-BUREAU IL-CARROLL IL-CEDAR IA-CLARK MO- CLINTON IA-DELAWARE IA-DES MOINES IA-DUBUQUE IA-HANCOCK IL- HENDERSON IL-HENRY IA-HENRY IL-IOWA IA-JACKSON IA-JEFFERSON IA- JO DAVIESS IL-JOHNSON IA-JONES IA-KEOKUK IA-LEE IA-LINN IA-LOUISA IA- MCDONOUGH IL-MERCER IL-MUSCATINE IA-PUTNAM IL-ROCK ISLAND IL- SCOTLAND MO-SCOTT IA-STEPHENSON IL-VAN BUREN IA-WARREN IL- WASHINGTON IA-WHITESIDE IL- 505 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL IOWA... NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THIS MORNING BEFORE DECREASING BY MIDDAY AND EARLY AFTERNOON. 1 TO 3 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS MAINLY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATION AND DRIFTING BY BRISK NORTH WINDS MAY STILL OCCUR ON ROADWAYS THIS MORNING AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED SLICK SPOTS. THE SNOW WILL END SOONER BY MID MORNING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 IN NORTHEAST IOWA. ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW WILL PUSH NORTHWARD AND AFFECT AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 4 INCHES BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FAIRFIELD IOWA...TO MONMOUTH ILLINOIS. AREAS FURTHER TO THE NORTH TOWARD INTERSTATE 80 MAY GET UP TO ANOTHER INCH TONIGHT. AGAIN...ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR MOSTLY ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THE MILD GROUND AND AMBIENT TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE MUCH OF THE SNOW TO MELT AFTER IT HAS FALLEN TODAY. AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER... SNOWFALL REPORTS OF AN INCH OR HIGHER WOULD BE APPRECIATED TODAY AND TONIGHT. $$ 12/NICHOLS
FLUS43 KLOT 202043 HWOLOT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 343 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010 ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019- 212045- WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE- DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON- IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON- 343 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010 /443 PM EDT SAT MAR 20 2010/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE SNOW IS FORECAST TO FALL NORTH OF A LINE FROM VALPARAISO INDIANA TO PONTIAC ILLINOIS...WHERE AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH MAY ACCUMULATE ON GRASSY AREAS. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS AREA THERE WILL BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SNOW AND SLEET WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. PORTIONS OF THE ILLINOIS AND KANKAKEE RIVERS WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. PORTIONS OF THE ILLINOIS AND KANKAKEE RIVERS WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ LMZ740>745-212045- WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR- WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND- NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY- GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY- 343 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. STRONG WINDS AND HIGH WAVES WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT FOR THE ILLINOIS AND INDIANA NEAR SHORE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868- 870-872-874-876-878-212045- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TOW RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- 343 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ ALLSOPP
FLUS43 KILX 202012 HWOILX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 312 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010 ILZ027-028-211100- KNOX-STARK- 312 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AND COMING TO AN END OVERNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE COMMON...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ ILZ029>031-036-037-040-041-047-049-050-211100- CASS-FULTON-MARSHALL-MASON-MORGAN-PEORIA-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-TAZEWELL- WOODFORD- 312 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT RECENT RAINS HAVE PRODUCED FLOODING CONDITIONS ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER FROM HENRY TO DOWNSTREAM OF BEARDSTOWN. FLOODING SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF AND COMING TO AN END OVERNIGHT. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE COMMON...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ ILZ038-042-043-048-051>053-211100- CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-LOGAN-MACON-MCLEAN-MENARD-SANGAMON- 312 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ ILZ044>046-054>057-061-062-066-067-071-072-211100- CHAMPAIGN-CLAY-COLES-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-EFFINGHAM-JASPER- MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SHELBY-VERMILION- 312 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ ILZ063-068-073-211100- CLARK-CRAWFORD-LAWRENCE- 312 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT RECENT RAINS HAVE PRODUCED FLOODING CONDITIONS ALONG THE WABASH RIVER FROM UPSTREAM OF TERRE HAUTE TO DOWNSTREAM OF RIVERTON. FLOODING SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ BARNES
FLUS43 KLSX 202055 HWOLSX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 355 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-211200- GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL- MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL- CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO- LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO- AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO- LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO- ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO- WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO- MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO- 355 PM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF UP TO 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SEE THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD STATEMENTS FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SLEET AND SOME FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. MODERATE RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ALONG PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO REPORT SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. && FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1 $$ BRITT
FLUS43 KPAH 200940 HWOPAH HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 440 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-211000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 440 AM CDT SAT MAR 20 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOR THE LATEST FLOOD INFORMATION...REFER TO OUR RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. FOR THE LATEST FLOOD INFORMATION...REFER TO OUR RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. $$