ACUS01 KWNS 100535 SWODY1 SPC AC 100533 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 PM CST TUE FEB 09 2010 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST... DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE NOW OFF THE CNTRL CA COAST WILL CONTINUE SEWD TODAY...GRADUALLY EVOLVING INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND EVENTUALLY REACHING NWRN MEXICO BY THURSDAY MORNING. IN THE LOW LEVELS...AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY MIGRATE EWD THROUGH THE MS VALLEY...MAINTAINING OFFSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF COAST. IT APPEARS THAT ANY TSTM POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO PARTS OF THE SWRN DESERTS WHERE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...DESPITE A RATHER DRY AIR MASS. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH OPENING MIDLEVEL WAVE COUPLED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING OVER PARTS OF AZ INTO NM. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ..MEAD.. 02/10/2010
ACUS02 KWNS 091653 SWODY2 SPC AC 091652 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1052 AM CST TUE FEB 09 2010 VALID 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS NWRN MEXICO WEDNESDAY. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SRN AND ERN AZ. DRY AIR AND WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THIS CONVECTION. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONUS...THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ..BROYLES.. 02/09/2010
ACUS03 KWNS 090718 SWODY3 SPC AC 090717 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0117 AM CST TUE FEB 09 2010 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z ...SYNOPSIS... THE MAIN UPPER FEATURE OVER THE U.S. THIS PERIOD -- AN UPPER LOW INITIALLY PROGGED INVOF SERN AZ/SWRN NM/NWRN MEXICO...IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD/ESEWD INTO TX...WITH WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS PROGGED TO OCCUR LATE OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. WITH COOL/CONTINENTAL AIR PERSISTING OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY AND -- GIVEN CYCLOGENESIS SUPPRESSED SWD OVER THE GULF -- LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR NWD RETURN OF HIGHER THETA-E LOW-LEVEL AIR...DEEP-MOIST CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. ..GOSS.. 02/09/2010
ACUS48 KWNS 090935 SWOD48 SPC AC 090934 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 AM CST TUE FEB 09 2010 VALID 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... A SRN STREAM TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE SRN U.S. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER THE GULF -- ALONG THE MAIN SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE -- PROGGED TO SHIFT ACROSS OR JUST S OF FL THROUGH DAY 4 /FRI. FEB. 12/. IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...CONTINUED REINFORCEMENT OF THE COOL CONTINENTAL AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS IS EXPECTED...AS A LARGE TROUGH SLOWLY EVOLVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS. GIVEN THIS...AND GENERAL RIDGING OVER THE WEST...LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR ROBUST DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS INDICATED THROUGH DAY 8. ..GOSS.. 02/09/2010
FXUS63 KDVN 092041
AFDDVN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
240 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
..SYNOPSIS...
ANALYSIS AT 2 PM ILLUSTRATES LARGE...DIFFUSE SURFACE OCCLUSION MOVING
EAST. LIGHT SNOW BASED ON NOWCAST TOOLS WILL END FROM NW TO SE NEXT
3 TO 5 HOURS WITH SOME LINGERING FLURRIES UNTIL LATE EVENING. EDGE OF
CLOUDS SUPPLEMENTED BY SUBSIDENCE INDICATES CLEARING TO MOVE ACROSS
REGION LATE EVENING AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE RISES ALLOWING
FOR NW WINDS OF 15 TO 25+ MPH WITH SOME MINOR BLOWING SNOW ACROSS
IOWA. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE ACROSS AREA AS ISALLOBARIC RIDGE MOVES
EAST BETWEEN 9 AND 12 PM. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS NW UPPER AIR FLOW
AND QUIET WEATHER WEDNESDAY WITH SFC HIGH OVERHEAD BY LATE PM. AREA
WILL END UP WITH WIDESPREAD 4 TO 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW FROM DEPARTING
SYSTEM WHICH WILL PRODUCE A DECENT NEGATIVE FEEDBACK TO AREA TEMPS
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
WILL KEEP ADVISORY UNTIL 06Z TO WALK OUT LINGERING SNOW AND WINDS FOR
EVENING SHIFT TO DECIDE WHEN TO PULL. TRENDS SUGGEST CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 7 AND 11 PM.
TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW...WITH MINOR TO NO
ACCUMULATIONS IN IOWA AND MISSOURI. IN ILLINOIS...ADDITIONAL SNOW
AMOUNTS TO BE LESS THAN INCH. AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...CONDITIONS TO
IMPROVE BY LATE EVENING AND CLEARING OVERNIGHT. LOCAL TOOLS SUGGEST
IF CLEARING IS FASTER...MINS MAY NEED LOWERING WITH NEAR ZERO
READINGS POSSIBLE IN NW SECTIONS.
WEDNESDAY...FAIR SKIES AND MODERATE NW WINDS AND SNOW COVER TO KEEP
HIGHS BELOW GUIDANCE. KEPT HIGHS TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEENS NW TO
LOWER 20S SE 2/3. SOME LOCAL TECHNIQUES SUGGEST MAX TEMPS MAY NEED
TRIMMING A FEW DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS FOR LATER SHIFTS. WIND
CHILLS TO NEAR 10 BELOW IN MORNING HOURS IN NW SECTIONS WILL MAKE FOR
ANOTHER VERY COLD MORNING. ..NICHOLS..
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...
ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA WED NIGHT/THURSDAY KEEPING
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING
TEMPERATURES. IF NO CI MOVES INTO THE AREA TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE
COLD ENOUGH GIVEN THE FRESH SNOW FIELD. IF CI DOES MOVE IN...
TEMPERATURES ARE PROBABLY TOO COLD. WAA DEVELOPS THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE INTERESTING AS SIGNALS ARE PRESENT
INDICATING TWO SEPARATE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS HAPPENING IN QUICK
ORDER. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A LULL BETWEEN
EVENTS. A HYBRID CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT BRINGING SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA. A
TREND TOWARD HIGHER POPS HAS BEEN INITIATED BUT FORCING SIGNALS
INDICATE MUCH HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED.
SAT/SUN IS IN QUESTION. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THE
HYBRID CLIPPER SYSTEM. DEPENDING UPON THE MODEL...THIS SECOND EVENT
EITHER STARTS SATURDAY OR STARTS SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY. MODELS SUGGEST SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH LOW CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS AND FORCING. SO...WILL INCREASE POPS TO CHC FOR
SAT/SAT NIGHT WHILE CONTINUING THE SCHC POPS FOR SUNDAY. FORCING
SIGNALS INDICATE HIGHER POPS WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED WITH THE
SECOND EVENT AS WELL.
MONDAY/TUESDAY LOOKS DRY AS THE NEXT CANADIAN/ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE MIDWEST. ..08..
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS DUE TO 1-3K AGL CIGS AND VSBYS 2-4 MILES IN
SNOW TO INCREASE TO VFR CONDITIONS BETWEEN 23Z AND 05Z ALL
TERMINALS AS SNOW ENDS AND SKIES CLEAR. CLEAR SKIES AND VSBYS AOA 7
MILES AFTER 08Z ALL TERMINALS INTO LATE WEDNESDAY. ..NICHOLS..
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-
DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-
KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-
MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-
WHITESIDE.
MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT
FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.
&&
$$
NICHOLS/08
FXUS63 KLOT 100513
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1113 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010
.DISCUSSION...
306 PM CST
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
HAVE DECIDED TO DROP BLIZZARD WATCH ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CWA DUE TO
CONCERNS ABOUT MEETING STRICT CRITERIA. OTHER THAN MINOR TWEAKS TO
SNOW AMOUNTS HAVE MAINTAINED SHORT TERM FORECAST PRETTY MUCH AS IS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STOUT UPPER LOW NEAR STL...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS OHIO RIVER VALLEY
TONIGHT. LIGHT/OCCASIONALLY MODERATE SNOW CONTINUES IN BROAD
CYCLONICALLY CURVED BAND OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FROM SOUTHERN OHIO
VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO WI/NORTHERN IL/IA. AS MENTIONED IN
MIDDAY AFD UPDATE...AREAS TO WATCH FOR ENHANCED SNOWFALL ARE ACROSS
COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE MICHIGAN WHERE COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HELPING TO MAINTAIN STRONGER
REFLECTIVITIES AND LOWER OBSERVED VISIBILITIES...AND ACROSS PORTIONS
OF I-80/I-88 CORRIDORS OVER WESTERN COUNTIES WHERE LOW LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS MAXIMA OCCURRING NORTH OF SHARP LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TROUGH AXIS. RADAR TRENDS APPEAR TO CONFIRM
IDEA OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOWFALL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
IL/CHI METRO AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
RUSH HOUR...WITH MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN SUBURBS GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE CITY BY EVENING
AND INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA OVERNIGHT. RECENT REPORT OF 7 INCHES IN
LAKE COUNTY IL SUGGESTS GOING 8-12 INCH STORM TOTAL FOR LAKE
MICHIGAN COUNTIES STILL APPROPRIATE. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
ELSEWHERE WITH STRENGTHENING DEFORMATION/FRONTOGENETIC BAND TO
SUPPLY SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF SNOW TO REMAINDER OF FORECAST AREA INTO
THIS EVENING.
EVENING PHASE OF STORM WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING
NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT AS SFC LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN FOR A
TIME OFF TO OUR EAST. SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 20 KTS WITH GUSTS
NEAR/AROUND 30 KTS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF CWA...WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW EXPECTED TO
BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WHILE CONDITIONS SUGGEST
WE MAY APPROACH BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN A FEW SPOTS AT TIMES...
CONFIDENCE IN MEETING BLIZZARD WARNING CRITERIA OF 3 HOURS OF 35 MPH
AND 1/4SM VISIBILITY NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO BLIZZARD
WARNING...ESPECIALLY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS EARLIER
IN THE DAY AND SNOW WINDING DOWN AS WINDS REALLY PICK UP TONIGHT.
THEREFORE WILL LET WINTER STORM WARNING RIDE WITH EMPHASIS ON
BLOWING/DRIFTING AND POOR VISIBILITY.
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT INTO PORTER COUNTY LATE TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY
MORNING...THOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
INDICATE INVERSION HEIGHTS/EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS DECREASING RAPIDLY
DURING THE MORNING WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE MAINTAINED SNOW
AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR LAKE SNOW BELT AREAS...WITH 10 TO
15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTER COUNTY BY THE TIME IT TAPERS OFF
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
RATZER
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
AT 500 MB...A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS
AND NORTHWEST INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A 500 MB
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO MINNESOTA BY FRIDAY EVENING. THIS
TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH ILLINOIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL
FORECAST A CHANCE OF SNOW FRIDAY. ANOTHER 500 MB TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH ILLINOIS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE MORE INTENSE THAN THE ONE
THAT OCCURRED FRIDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN IOWA SATURDAY
EVENING AND WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS SUNDAY. THEN BY
SUNDAY EVENING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN OHIO. ANOTHER
HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. WE USED
THE GFS MODEL FOR GUIDANCE AND FOR TEMPERATURES...WE FOLLOWED MOS
GUIDANCE. FOR THE LAST SEVEN DAYS THE MEAN ABSOLUTE ERRORS WERE
LOWER THAN THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE
FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS SATURDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
WW
&&
.AVIATION...
1111 PM CST
0600 UTC TAFS...LAKE EFFECT HAS COMPLETED TRANSITION TO SINGLE
BAND EXTENDING FROM MID CENTRAL PORTION OF LAKE MI SSW TO ALONG
THE SE WI AND NE IL SHORES. FLOW TO CONTINUE TO BACK THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN TAIL END OF BAND SHIFTING GRADUALLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE IND STATE LINE.
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP BUT STRONG GUSTS HAVE YEST TO MAKE IT INTO
THE IMMEDIATE CHI AREA. WHILE SFC LOW OVER FAR WEST END OF LAKE
ERIE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN...THE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
CANADA S ACROSS THE PLAINS TO EAST TX WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
MAINTAINING PRESSURE GRADIENT AT LEAST INTO WED MORNING SO WHILE
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW AND MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT WILL BE
ENDING...SOME EPISODES OF BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
RESTRICTED VISIBILITIES THROUGH FIRST PART OF WED MORNING.
PATCHY MVFR STRATOCU UPSTREAM TO NW WI AND SE MN THEN MAINLY SKC.
WITH DEEP NW FLOW BY WED EVE ALONG WITH RIDGE AXIS MOVING TO UPPER
MS AND LOWER MO VALLEYS EXPECT CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. WINDS TO ALSO GRADUALLY DIE OFF AS LOW TO
THE EAST FILLS AND RIDGE NEARS.
TRS
&&
.MARINE...
139 PM...PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN REMAINS GALES THRU WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
OVERALL...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST/GRIDS. A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES CENTERED
OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS RIDGE IS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS OHIO. THIS LOW
WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AS IT REACHES LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING...THEN
NEW LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
RAPIDLY DEEPEN TONIGHT...ABSORBING THE LOW OVER LAKE ERIE.
AS A RESULT...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THRU THIS
EVENING INCREASING TO GALES. WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT THEN TURN NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GRADIENT WILL
SLOWLY WEAKEN...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE LOW OVER LAKE ERIE WEAKENS
AND IS ABSORBED. THUS GALES WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. BUT SINCE THE HIGH WILL RE-CENTER ITSELF
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE
WESTERN LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...THUS WINDS WILL REMAIN
STRONG WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION WITH ANOTHER STRONG HIGH
BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTHEN/LOCATION OF THE LOW AND WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE FROM THIS DISTANCE...WILL KEEP WINDS IN THE 15-25KT
RANGE FOR NOW. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...WINTER STORM WARNING...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022-
ILZ023-ILZ032-ILZ033-ILZ039 UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
IN...WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ001-INZ002-INZ011 UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY.
WINTER STORM WARNING...INZ010-INZ019 UNTIL 9 AM WEDNESDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ743-LMZ744-
LMZ745-LMZ777-LMZ779-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878
UNTIL 9 PM WEDNESDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ868 UNTIL 4 PM WEDNESDAY.
&&
$$
FXUS63 KILX 100515 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1115 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 835 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010 UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS WELL EAST INTO OHIO. CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND RADARS HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN BOTH COVERAGE AND REFLECTIVITIES IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. PUDDLE OF COLD SURFACE AIR HAS MOVED TO THE ILLINOIS/INDIANA BORDER...WITH TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST BEGINNING TO RISE. MAIN FORECAST QUESTION WILL BE THE MAGNITUDE OF BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH LIES WEST-EAST OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND OBSERVED WINDS ARE RATHER GUSTY TO ITS NORTH. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO COME SOUTHWARD TONIGHT...WITH THE 00Z NAM AND RUC MODELS BOTH SHOWING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING WITH ITS PASSAGE. SO THE THREAT FOR BLOWING SNOW WILL PROBABLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT...DESPITE SOME AREAS NOT SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES YET. WILL UPDATE THE FORECASTS SHORTLY TO HAVE JUST FLURRIES INSTEAD OF MEASURABLE SNOW...AND REPLACE THE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IN THE NORTH/EAST TO A BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY. WILL KEEP WATCHING THE WINDS NORTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF DROPPING THE ADVISORY IN THE SOUTHWEST...BUT WILL KEEP IT GOING FOR NOW. 04 && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1115 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010 SFC TROF IS NOW MOVG SEWD THRU THE AREA...INCRSG WNDS AND TURNING THEM TO THE NW. ACCUM SNOW PRETTY MUCH DONE OVR THE CNTL IL TERMINALS...BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME OCNL VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN BLSN THRU 15Z WED ESP FOR BMI/DEC/CMI. EXPCT 1K-2K FT STRATOCU TO GRDLY LIFT TWD 12Z...AND CLDS SHUD BCM SCT BY 18Z EVERYWHERE BUT CMI...WHERE CIGS MAY HANG ON THRU THE AFTN AS SUGGESTED BY THE NAM MODEL. SFC PRES GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX AFT 15Z WED WITH WNDS AOB 10 KT BY 00Z THU. 04 && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 300 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010 MODELS REMAIN SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH 72HRS. THEN DIFFERENCES SEEN WITH TIMING OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THE SAME SPEED DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN IN THE LONG TERM WITH ANOTHER STRONGER CLIPPER SYSTEM FORECAST TO ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. WILL TAKE A BLEND OF THE MODELS THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AND LET THEM WORK THINGS OUT LATER DOWN THE ROAD WITH THE TWO CLIPPER SYSTEMS FOR THE WEEKEND. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE BLOWING SNOW FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...ALONG WITH THE COLD TEMPS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A CLIPPER SYSTEM FOR LATER IN THE WEEK. GRADIENT IS BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN OVER WESTERN IL THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD AIR AND SFC LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE EASTERN GRT LKS REGION. SNOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS AS THE SFC TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE BACK-SIDE OF THE LOW. AN ADDITIONAL INCH IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN AREAS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74 THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND BE GUSTY WITH WIND SPEEDS AROUND 30 MPH POSSIBLE. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. BASED ON ALL THIS...WILL KEEP WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING FOR CURRENT LOCATIONS TIL TOMORROW AT NOON. HIGH PRSS WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING BITTER COLD TEMPS AND CALM WINDS. THEN AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW RETURNS FOR LATER IN THE WEEK A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO THE REGION AND BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SNOW. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND MODELS DIFFER SOME ON TIMING. SO FOR NOW WILL JUST GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY IN THE NORTH FOR NOW. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE AS BITTER COLD AIR IS LOCATED OVER THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...COLDEST AIR WILL BE WED NIGHT AS CALM WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND FRESH SNOW COVER WILL ALLOW LOTS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. AGAIN, UNDERCUT GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND IN ADDITION TO ANOTHER...STRONGER...SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP INTO THE REGION. ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER WITH TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM AS WELL AND TRIED TO TAKE BLEND OF THE TWO SOLUTIONS. SO FOR NOW WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT...WITH CHC IN THE EAST FOR SUNDAY. WILL LET MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE INCREASING POPS BEYOND CHANCE. BEYOND THIS SYSTEM...REMAINDER OF EXTENDED LOOKS DRY FOR NOW. KEPT TEMPS AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER HI PRSS AREA BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. AUTEN && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR ILZ040>042- 047>057-061. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR ILZ027>031- 036>038-043>046. && $$
FXUS63 KLSX 100538 AFDLSX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1138 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010 .UPDATE... /740 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/ NORTHWEST WIND HAS RELAXED A BIT AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. EXPECTION MAY BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE 6 INCHES OF SNOW FELL AND WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT HIGHER. HAVE ALSO LIMITED PRECIPITATION TO FLURRIES WITH ONLY A DUSTING OF FLUFF OCCURRING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...DROPPING LATER TONIGHT ON A MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE. CVKING && .DISCUSSION... /355 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/ MAIN FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE SHORT-TERM CONCERNS TONIGHT AS WELL AS THE BEGINNINGS OF A NEW MID LEVEL REGIME SETTLING IN FOR LATE WEEK. SEVERAL ITEMS OF NOTE FOR TONIGHT. TEMP ROLLER COASTER HAS HIT ITS DOWNWARD SWING AS LO LEVEL CAA HAS MAXED OUT AND MOVED E...WITH AREA OF STRONG WAA NOW MOVING IN FROM THE NW. THIS WILL RESULT IN RISING TEMPS THRU THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS TAKE OVER. INTENSE COLD AIR WAS FOUND AT THE SFC EARLY THIS MORNING DISPLACED JUST TO THE N OF THE STACKED LO AND THIS HAS SINCE TRANSLATED EWD WITH THE STACKED LO THRU THE NRN FA. SO WRAPPED UP IS THIS LO THAT WARM AIR HAS MOVED ALL AROUND IT ON ITS NRN FLANK AND WILL GIVE US OUR TEMP RECOVERY AFTER SS. TWO MAIN AREAS OF SHSN...ONE IS BEING DRIVEN BY POWERFUL VORT MAX LOCATED AT THE HEART OF THE STACKED LO THAT WILL BE SE OF THE FA BY 00Z. THE OTHER IS HIGHLY WRAPPED UP LEFTOVERS OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN THAT WILL TAKE A FINAL SWING THRU MAINLY THE NERN FA...OR AREAS N AND E OF KSTL...THIS EVENING. MINOR ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMS OF HALF INCH OR LESS ARE POSSIBLE. GUSTY NWLY SFC WNDS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE NIGHT...WITH GUSTS AS HI AS 30 MPH...AND THIS WILL CREATE CONTD AREAS OF BLSN WITH REDUCED VSBYS AT TIMES. SFC WNDS AND BLSN MAY BE A FACTOR INTO WED MRNG... BUT BELIEVE REDUCTION OF VSBYS WILL BE MUCH LESS AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF FCST. OTRW...GENERALLY FOLLOWED A BELOW NORMAL TEMP FCST WITH DRY CONDS THRU THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST MORNING STILL SET FOR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS SFC HI PRES RIDGE IS OVERLAYED WITH MOCLR SKIES. WENT SEVERAL DEGS BELOW THE COLDEST MOS...EXCEPT TEMPERED IT IN THE SWRN FA WHERE MID AND HI CLOUDS WILL HAVE MOVED IN BY 12Z/THU. BY FRIDAY WE WILL SEE THE FIRST OF SEVERAL CLIPPER SYSTEMS THANKS TO LONGWAVE H500 TROF THAT IS CURRENTLY BEING CARVED OUT BY POWERFUL WINTER STORM HEADING E. HAVE INTRODUCED POPS...NOT FROM ANY INFLUENCE OF THE SRN BRANCH AS ORIGINALLY THOUGHT POSSIBLE...BUT FROM THE NRN CLIPPER. MINOR SNOW AMNTS OF AN INCH OR LESS POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD (FRIDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...DECENT MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NWLY FLOW AT THE MID LEVELS WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY KEEP US IN A BLO NORMAL TEMP WITH INTERMITTENT CLIPPER SYSTEMS REGIME DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. ENOUGH OF A MODEL SIGNAL NOW...WITH THE 00Z/06Z GFS BEING THE MAIN OUTLIER...12Z GFS LESS SO...TO NOW INCLUDE LOW CHC POPS AND FLURRIES MENTION IN THE FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD FROM FRI NGT THRU SUNDAY. POTENTIAL SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LIGHT...BUT OVER A PROLONGED TIME THESE COULD ADD UP. LOOK FOR A SLOWLY INCRSG INFLUENCE OF A CANADIAN HI PRES HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME MODELS ARE ADVERTISING YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CLIPPER LATE ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL AWAIT BETTER CONSENSUS BEFORE INCORPORATING THIS INTO THE FORECAST. TES && .AVIATION... /1128 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010/ KSTL...CIGS CONTINUE TO BE THE REAL QUESTION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. STILL SEEING CIGS BTWN 1500-1900FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MO/WEST CENTRAL IL WHICH COULD ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE TERMINAL. BUT MY CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. ALSO...TIMING THE EVENTUAL SCATTERING OUT WEDNESDAY MORNING IS TOUGH. MOVED IT BACK A FEW HOURS SINCE THE CLEARING LINE IS NOT MOVING VERY FAST THRU SOUTHEAST IOWA...AND THIS MAY YET BE TOO OPTIMISTIC. FOR THE REMAINING AREA...SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE NIGHT. VSBYS COULD BRIEFLY DIP INTO MVFR RANGE IN SOUTHEAST MO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT VFR VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL. NOTICED A DIP INTO IFR CIG RANGE AT KUUV THIS HOUR. THIS IS THE ONLY IFR CIG I'VE NOTICED IN THE BI-STATE REGION ALL NIGHT...SO I THINK THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ISOLATED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER AND SHOULD BE VERY BRIEF. MAJORITY OF THE AREA SHOULD PREVAIL 2000-3000FT CIGS WITH INTERMITTENT DIPS TO BETWEEN 1500-1900FT ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHEAST MO/WEST CENTRAL IL UNTIL THE CIGS SCATTER OUT. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GRADUALLY CALMING DOWN THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. CARNEY && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
FXUS63 KPAH 100554 AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1154 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010 .UPDATE... UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAFS. THE DISCUSSION SECTION IS UNCHANGED FROM THE 156 PM PRODUCT ISSUANCE. && .DISCUSSION... PVA SNOW SHOWERS WILL WRAP BACK INTO THE FA ON THE UNDER/BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW NOW MOVING ACROSS NRN MO. IT WILL ALSO BRING ITS GUSTY WINDS AND ARCTIC PLUNGE OF AIR...WHICH MODELS ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME OF GRASPING THE TDS. RESULTANT OVERNIGHT APPARENT TEMPS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH WIND CHILLS TOMORROW IN THE TEENS. THE LOW LIFTS OUT TOWARD THE END OF THE DAY TOMORROW AND AS THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR WEST STARTS TO BUILD IN...WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR THE COLDEST/BEST RADIATIONAL NIGHT FOR TEMPS WED NIGHT...GENERALLY 10-15 THOUGH SINGLE DIGITS ARE PERCHED JUST TO OUR NW AND ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY OF SINKING DOWN INTO OUR NRN 1/2. THE WEEKEND CONTAINS SMALLISH SNOW CHANCES FRI-FRI NIGHT AND AGAIN SAT NIGHT-SUN. THESE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ALBERTA CLIPPERS AND AS SUCH SHOULD NOT OFFER ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS...THOUGH LIGHT DUSTINGS MIGHT OCCUR...THE MORE VIGOROUS WAVE/BETTER SUCH CHANCE SEEMING TO BE THE 2ND OF THE 2/IE THE SUNDAY SYSTEM. THE COLD WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK. EVEN LOOKING OUT BEYOND DAY 7 THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH HOPE RIGHT NOW FOR ANY WARMING...GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOWING BROAD TROFFING TO BE THE GENERAL CNTRL U.S. UPPER PATTERN THRU ALL OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. NAM SEEMS TO MAYBE CAPTURE THE COLDER SURFACE TEMPS/TDS BETTER AND AS A RESULT WAS THE WAY WE LEANED FOR NEAR TERM TEMPS/TDS. && .AVIATION... AREA OF MVFR CIGS MAINLY 2-3KFT THAT HAS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...IS EXPECTED TO FILL IN OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. AREA RADARS AND METARS INDICATE LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH MOST OF THE MVFR CLOUDS AS OF 05Z...SO WILL MENTION PREVAILING VFR LIGHT SNOW WHEN/WHERE MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST. MVFR AND IFR VISIBILITIES IN SNOW NOTICED OVER EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DESCEND INTO OUR AREA. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT 1-2KFT CEILINGS AND 6SM -SN AT KOWB AND KEVV. THEREFORE...DECIDED TO MENTION THIS IN A TEMPO GROUP. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF CLEARING DURING THE DAY...BUT EXPECT MVFR CIGS IN KOWB/KEVV TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...WHILE WESTERN TAF SITES SHOULD BE CLEARING BY MIDDAY. STRONG WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PERSISTENT...BUT WILL DROP OFF DRAMATICALLY WITH SUNSET. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ AVIATION....AD/DRS
FLUS43 KDVN 091141 HWODVN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 541 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-101145- BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON- CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON- HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL- WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON- WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK- 541 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA WITH SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT AS IT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN EVENT SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES IN NORTHEAST MISSOURI...RANGING TO 5 TO 9 INCH TOTALS FOR AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34. SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING MAY EVEN SEE LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY THIS EVENING. STRONG NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 25 AND 30 MPH WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY MORNING WEST OF CEDAR RAPIDS TO WASHINGTON...AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW...WITH NEAR WHITE OUT OR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RURAL AND OPEN AREAS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND ZERO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...AS COLD AIR POURS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THIS STORM WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. MORE DETAILED AND UPDATED INFORMATION ON THIS WINTER STORM CAN BE FOUND IN THE LATEST WINTER WEATHER PRODUCT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL MAY AFFECT THE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING...TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND MORE DETAILED INFORMATION WILL BE AVAILABLE IN LATER OUTLOOKS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...BUT REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE APPRECIATED. $$
FLUS43 KLOT 092133 HWOLOT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 333 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010 ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019- 102145- WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE- DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON- IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON- 333 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010 /433 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2010/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PERIODS OF SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE 6 TO 10 INCHES BY LATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WITH OCCASIONAL NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. PORTIONS OF THE FOX RIVER WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE BLOWING SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. PORTIONS OF THE FOX RIVER WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT SNOW ACCUMULATION. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ LMZ740>745-102145- WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR- WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND- NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY- GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY- 333 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868- 870-872-874-876-878-102145- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TOW RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- 333 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS TO 35 KNOTS ARE LIKELY WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$
FLUS43 KILX 092118 HWOILX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 318 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010 ILZ027>031-036>038-043>046-100930- CHAMPAIGN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-MARSHALL-MCLEAN-PEORIA-PIATT-STARK- TAZEWELL-VERMILION-WOODFORD- 318 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF NEW SNOW WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WHILE THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BE TAPERING OFF...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT...LEADING TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ ILZ040>042-047>057-061-100930- CASS-CHRISTIAN-COLES-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-LOGAN-MACON-MASON-MENARD- MORGAN-MOULTRIE-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-SHELBY- 318 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A WINTER STORM WILL BEGIN TO EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF NEW SNOW WILL BE LIGHT. WHILE THE LIGHT SNOW WILL BE TAPERING OFF...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT... LEADING TO BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN. FOR INTERESTS ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER...FLOODING CONTINUES FROM HAVANA TO BEARDSTOWN. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ILLINOIS RIVER FROM HAVANA TO BEARDSTOWN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ ILZ062-063-066>068-071>073-100930- CLARK-CLAY-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-RICHLAND- 318 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ BARKER
FLUS43 KLSX 100137 HWOLSX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 737 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-101200- GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL- MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL- CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS- SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE- CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN- ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON- ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS- 737 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT OCCASIONAL FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT. UP TO A DUSTING OF SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. && FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1 $$ CVKING
FLUS43 KPAH 091506 HWOPAH HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 906 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-101100- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 906 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE FOR BITING COLD WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TODAY...AND NEAR ZERO TONIGHT. RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES ON SOME AREA RIVERS....REFER TO THE RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON SOME AREA RIVERS...REFERENCE THE WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST DETAILS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$