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  • ACUS01 KWNS 030512
    SWODY1
    SPC AC 030511
    
    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1211 AM CDT FRI SEP 03 2010
    
    VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
    
    ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
    
    ...SYNOPSIS...
    PROGRESSIVE NRN-STREAM PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE ALOFT THROUGH
    PERIOD...LED BY STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ANALYZED SWD FROM LOW OVER
    NRN MN.  ASSOCIATED MID-UPPER CYCLONE IS FCST TO DEEPEN
    SOMEWHAT...ENLARGE...AND MOVE EWD TO ENEWD ACROSS NRN ONT THROUGH
    PERIOD.  MEANWHILE TRAILING TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EWD TO POSITION OVER
    LH...CENTRAL OH...AND EXTREME WRN NC BY 4/12Z.  AS THIS
    OCCURS...RELATED STG COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED ATTM FROM WRN LOWER MI
    ACROSS SRN IL...NRN AR...SERN OK...W-CENTRAL TX -- WILL MOVE EWD
    THROUGH OH VALLEY...AND SEWD OVER CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...LOWER
    MS VALLEY AND S TX.
    
    ...NRN APPALACHIANS TO S TX...
    WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS AND SMALL BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO
    FORM INVOF FRONTAL ZONE...PRIMARILY DURING AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
    EVENING.  NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED
    TO DEVELOP DURING PERIOD OF STRONGEST HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT
    FROM UPPER OH VALLEY REGION SWWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH
    RELATIVELY WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMITING BOTH DEPTH AND
    MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY.  THEREFORE...DURATION OF THUNDER POTENTIAL
    WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF IN THAT CORRIDOR.
    
    FARTHER SW ACROSS W GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO RIO GRANDE
    VALLEY...SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER SFC HEATING AND
    SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F WILL BOOST MLCAPE TO 1500-2000 J/KG
    RANGE IN PREFRONTAL AIR MASS.  CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EITHER IN
    FRONTAL ZONE OR ALONG PREFRONTAL SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
    MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LIGHT...ENELY-NELY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT
    WHICH WILL ACT TO LIMIT BOTH CONVERGENCE AND VERTICAL SHEAR.  WHILE
    A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STG GUSTS OR SUB-SVR HAIL...SVR POTENTIAL
    ATTM APPEARS TOO WEAK AND CONDITIONAL TO DRAW AREA OF AOA 5%
    UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES.
    
    ..EDWARDS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/03/2010
    
    
    
  • ACUS02 KWNS 030601
    SWODY2
    SPC AC 030600
    
    DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0100 AM CDT FRI SEP 03 2010
    
    VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
    
    ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
    
    ...SYNOPSIS...
    A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EASTWARD OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE
    ADJACENT GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE AN ADDITIONAL UPPER
    TROUGH AMPLIFIES FROM THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST TO THE PACIFIC
    NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY LATE SATURDAY. THE
    PRESENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL/DRIER CONTINENTAL
    TRAJECTORIES IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL KEEP MOST CONUS
    LOCALES THUNDER-FREE. SOME TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FL
    PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY...WITH TSTMS /SOME STRONG TO
    PERHAPS SEVERE/ ALSO INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF MT SATURDAY
    AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
    
    ...MT...
    AHEAD OF THE DIGGING PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER TROUGH...INFLUENCE OF
    UPPER JET LEFT EXIT REGION...AND MODEST MOISTURE IN VICINITY OF A
    SURFACE TROUGH/EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...SHOULD SUPPORT
    ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...INITIALLY ACROSS MUCH OF
    CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE LIMITED MOISTURE
    AVAILABILITY SHOULD TEMPER THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK...00Z NAM/GFS
    FORECAST SOUNDINGS REFLECT A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH WEAK
    CAPE /UP TO 500 J PER KG SBCAPE/ AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING FLOW
    NEAR/ABOVE THE TOP OF THE FORECAST MIXED LAYER. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD
    YIELD SOME TSTMS CAPABLE OF STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/GUSTY WINDS AND
    PERHAPS SMALL HAIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
    
    ..GUYER.. 09/03/2010
    
    
    
    
  • ACUS03 KWNS 020727
    SWODY3
    SPC AC 020726
    
    DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0226 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2010
    
    VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
    
    ...SYNOPSIS...
    WITHIN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES...MODELS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL
    MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. DURING
    THIS PERIOD.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
    DEVELOPING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH...AS ONE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE
    IMPULSE CONTINUES INLAND AND EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...WHILE
    ANOTHER IMPULSE DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  AT THE SAME TIME
    ...THE REMNANTS OF EARL LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE ACROSS
    AND NORTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITMES...AS A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE
    ...WITHIN BROADER SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN STATES... RAPIDLY
    LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
    
    HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR AND THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER
    ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHILE WEAK MOISTENING WITHIN A LEE
    SURFACE TROUGH ALSO CONTRIBUTES TO LOW THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
    ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
    OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL COOLING/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT
    COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN LOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SATURDAY ACROSS
    MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
    
    CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALSO APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS MUCH
    OF THE WEST...LIMITED TO A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER
    THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND ROCKIES... PERHAPS A
    BIT GREATER COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH
    MONTANA.
    
    ...MONTANA...
    LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY APPEARS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR
    CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SATURDAY.  MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
    PROGGED TO BECOME RATHER STEEP...AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD
    VERTICAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM OF THE
    APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BECOME
    SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON AN
    EASTERLY COMPONENT BENEATH STRENGTHENING WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.
    THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST ONE OR TWO
    STRONG/SEVERE STORMS BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY WHERE AN
    UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA ENHANCES BOUNDARY LAYER
    MOISTENING.
    
    ..KERR.. 09/02/2010
    
    
    
    
  • ACUS48 KWNS 020859
    SWOD48
    SPC AC 020858
    
    DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0358 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2010
    
    VALID 051200Z - 101200Z
    
    ...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SVR RISK AREA...
    
    LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT
    WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A GENERAL TREND TOWARD
    PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH AT LEAST A
    COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EMERGING FROM IT
    AND SUPPORTING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS.  THE FIRST IN THE
    SERIES STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
    PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON LABOR DAY...WHEN
    MOISTURE RETURN PROBABLY WILL BE RATHER WEAK RELATIVE TO THE WARMTH
    OF THE CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
    THE REGION.  EVEN SO...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OTHERWISE BE CONDUCIVE
    TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...GIVEN FAVORABLY TIMED MID/UPPER
    FORCING ACROSS A POTENTIALLY STRONGLY HEATED AND DEEPLY MIXED
    BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA AND EASTERN
    SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA.  02/00Z GFS
    AND ECMWF RUNS APPEAR QUICKER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID-LEVEL
    SYSTEM THAN PRIOR RUNS...AND IT IS STILL NOT CERTAIN THAT THE SEVERE
    POTENTIAL WILL MEET MINIMUM THRESHOLDS FOR DELINEATING A SEVERE RISK
    AREA AT THE DAY 5 TIME FRAME.
    
    THEREAFTER...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT IMPULSE...WHICH COULD
    PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY NEXT THURSDAY...SHOULD BE MORE
    FAVORABLE.  BUT THE SPREAD AMONG MODEL DATA CONCERNING THIS FEATURE
    BECOMES TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY ASSESS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.
    
    ..KERR.. 09/02/2010
    
    

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  • FXUS63 KDVN 022006
    AFDDVN
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
    306 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .SYNOPSIS...
    COLD FRONT AT 19Z EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM JUST WEST OF LSE THROUGH ALO
    TO NEAR OTM. BEHIND THIS FRONT...AREA RADARS INDICATED SCATTERED AND
    MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WIDESPREAD IN A ROUGHLY 40 MILE WIDE AXIS
    WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
    RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER FAR NORTHEAST IOWA...APPEARING ALONG THE
    EDGE OF A 8 DEG C CAP AT H7 AND WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
    SURFACE FRONT HAS REACHED THE AIRMASS WITH CAPES OF 1500 TO 2000
    J/KG THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN IA AND NW IL. MESOANALYSIS
    TRENDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS INDICATED THIS THERMAL RIDGE
    ALOFT...THAT HAS SO FAR SUPPRESSED CONVECTION...FLATTENING AND
    GETTING NUDGED EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
    TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE MO RIVER. WELL BEHIND THE
    FRONT...TEMPERATURES IN NW IA WERE IN THE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
    50S...WHILE OUT AHEAD 70S TO LOWER 80S WERE COMMON IN THE LOCAL AREA
    WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70.
    
    &&
    
    .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
    INITIAL CONCERN IS EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW
    HOURS...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO TEMPERATURES AS CANADIAN AIRMASS
    FLOODS INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE FRONT...AND STRONGER MID
    LEVEL FORCING AND MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OUT WEST REACHES THE BETTER
    INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPED OVER FORECAST AREA TODAY...WILL EXPECT
    MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
    SO FAR...CELLS HAVE BEEN RATHER ISOLATED...BUT MAY SEE A MORE LINEAR
    MODE DEVELOP WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED
    CELLS...SUCH AS THOSE RECENTLY FORMING CLOSER TO THE GREATER
    INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA MAY ALSO HAVE A
    MARGINAL HAIL THREAT. RATHER FAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS SHOULD PRECLUDE
    A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. BASED ON CURRENT TIMING...THE BULK OF THE
    STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MS RIVER BY 00Z AND HAVE LOW POPS THERE
    CONFINED TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING.
    
    COLD ADVECTION W-NW WINDS COMMENCE TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AND
    KEPT HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...CONSISTENT WITH
    MIXING TO AT LEAST H8. WILL HAVE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
    SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING UPPER FLOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST.
    OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE AND INCOMING DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE REST OF
    THE AREA DRY. FOR TONIGHT...STAYED CLOSER TO GUIDANCE BLEND IN THE
    50S...AS SUPPORTED BY INCOMING DEWPOINTS AND UPSTREAM LOWS THIS
    MORNING.
    ..SHEETS..
    
    .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
    REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED IN STRONG NW FLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
    UPPER TROF SETS UP OVER THE NERN U.S.  THE ECMWF IS STILL BRINGING
    SOME CHILLY H8 TEMPS INTO THE REGION WITH THE +3C H8 ISOTHERM VERY
    CLOSE TO THE NERN CWFA SATURDAY MORNING.  WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
    TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE FOR SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER
    40S AND HIGHS MID 60S TO MID 70S.  FOR SUNDAY EVEN THOUGH THE H8
    THERMAL TROF WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
    MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE MORNING...SO DROPPED MINS DOWN SIMILAR
    TO SATURDAYS EXPECTED LOWS. RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE AREA SO
    TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL SUNDAY.
    
    THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT
    WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
    SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WARM MOIST AIR TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF
    THE SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.  WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
    ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
    WITH MODELS STILL POINTING TOWARD SOME WAA INDUCED ELEVATED
    SHRA/TSA.  MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE
    WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE CWFA AND STRONG SLY FLOW IN PLACE
    OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.  WITH GOOD MIXING EXPECTED TEMPS SHOULD
    CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.  TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS
    PROGGED MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
    CWFA AS ANOTHER UPPER TROF DIGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.  A RENEWED
    SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROF WILL INTERACT WITH
    THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR MUCH
    OF THE WEEK.  ..DLF..
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...
    CONDITIONS HAD IMPROVED TO VFR EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL
    TERMINALS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA IS
    EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
    THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS
    MAY CONTINUE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
    EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE WITH CLEARING
    SKIES WEST WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
    THEN INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS POSSIBLE
    AFTER 15Z.
    ..SHEETS..
    &&
    
    .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    IA...NONE.
    IL...NONE.
    MO...NONE.
    
    &&
    
    $$
    
    SHEETS/DLF
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KLOT 030623
    AFDLOT
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
    123 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010
    
    .DISCUSSION...
    1056 PM CDT
    
    IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS FOCUSED ACROSS
    SOUTHERN MISSOURI/ILLINOIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. COLD FRONT
    CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND WILL PUSH
    INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY FRIDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
    QUICKLY DIMINISHING...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS AROUND
    40KTS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT PERSIST
    COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. AXIS OF NEARLY 2 INCH PWATS EXTENDS
    ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS
    THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF DOWNPOURS. SKIES WILL
    CONTINUE TO THIN FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CURRENTLY CLEARING ACROSS
    FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
    
    BEACHLER
    
    //PREV DISCUSSION...
    255 PM CDT
    
    SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOSTLY DIMINISHED THIS
    AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
    AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF SETS IN OVERHEAD. SKIES HAVE
    SCATTERED AND EVEN CLEARED OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL
    ILLINOIS...ALLOWING FOR HEATING OF THE SURFACE AND INSTABILITY TO
    BUILD.
    
    MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY DEALS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
    CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA STRETCHING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
    AND CENTRAL KANSAS. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IN AN AREA OF
    CLEARING...SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES INTENSIFYING AXIS OF HIGHER
    SURFACE BASED CAPES ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ALONG THE
    MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH HIGHER VALUES STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST
    OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. INSTABILITY DECREASES EAST OVER OUR CWA. DEEP
    UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA...EXPECTED TO
    CONTINUE TO SHEAR ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
    THIS EVENING WITH BETTER FORCING TO THE NORTH OVER WISCONSIN. JET
    MAX BEGINS TO RIDE UP THE RIDGE AROUND THE SAME TIME...AND AT LEAST
    BRIEFLY TONIGHT WILL BE IN FAVORABLE QUADRANT OF JET WHICH SHOULD
    HELP TO ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ALL SAID...EXPECT
    STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY JUST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
    BASED ON TIMING OF FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT
    PERHAPS STRONG STORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA BEGINNING
    BETWEEN 21-00Z...PROBABLY CLOSER TO 00Z...SUBSEQUENTLY LOSING SOME OF
    ITS INTENSITY AS IT HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
    AND AWAY FROM THE BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT. STRONG 500MB WINDS ALONG
    THE FRONT WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENHANCING THE THREAT OF
    SEVERE. MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS...WITH A LESSER
    THREAT OF HAIL.
    
    COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE CWA BY 06Z TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
    FRONT...WINDS EXPECTED TO CRANK UP AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
    COOLER. NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO AROUND
    850MB...WITH THE GFS ON THE HIGH END AND SHOWING STRONGER WINDS.
    SEEMS IT WILL NOT BE HARD TO SEE 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS WITH SOME HIGHER
    END GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY.
    SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY AGAIN...HOWEVER THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
    SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY SO SHOULD NOT SEE THE SAME MAGNITUDE WINDS.
    AS MENTIONED...TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FRIDAY
    AND SATURDAY AS CANADIAN AIR MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW.
    TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 70 MARK IN SOME AREAS BUT
    WILL REBOUND BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
    
    BMD
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...
    
    //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
    
    MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD ARE WITH WESTERLY WINDS
    INCREASING BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 34 KT POSSIBLE BY THE
    LATE AFTERNOON...AND MVFR CONDITIONS ENDING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
    OF HOURS.
    
    RODRIGUEZ
    
    //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
    
    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
    MORNING WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MAIN CLOUD SHIELD
    SLOWLY MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
    INDIANA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION EARLY THIS
    MORNING WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SCATTERED MID TO HIGH LEVEL
    CLOUDS REMAINING. DO ANTICIPATE SOME DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT ONCE
    AGAIN TODAY...BUT WITH CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
    SYSTEM TO HELP FILL IN ANY REMAINING GAPS BY THE AFTERNOON.
    CEILINGS OF AROUND 5KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME BUT EXPECT
    THESE TO EXIT/SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SKIES GOING
    CLEAR AS SYSTEM EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
    THE WEST.
    
    BIG DISCUSSION REMAINS WITH THE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST
    PERIOD...WHICH LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY THROUGHOUT. AS SURFACE
    LOW DEEPENS WHILE DEPARTING TO THE NORTH...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
    BE RATHER TIGHT ALONG WITH SOME COOLER AIR MOVING IN. THIS WILL
    HELP WINDS TO INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 22KT POSSIBLE BY MID
    MORNING...AND THEN GUSTS UP TO 34KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
    HAVE GUSTS DROPPING OFF BY AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT
    ANTICIPATING A DECOUPLING ATMOSPHERE TO HELP OFFSET SOME OF THE
    GUSTS. ALTHOUGH IF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MIXED FURTHER INTO THE
    NIGHT...GUSTS COULD BE OBSERVED LONGER ESPECIALLY WITH FAIRLY
    STRONG WINDS NOT TOO FAR OFF THE GROUND.
    
    RODRIGUEZ
    
    
    //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
    
    HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ENDING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
    OF HOURS AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
    THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND DIRECTION AND
    MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH SPEED.
    
    RODRIGUEZ
    
    //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 06Z...
    
    SATURDAY...VFR. MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING
    THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
    
    SUNDAY...VFR.
    
    MONDAY...VFR. MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
    
    TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TS.
    
    WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TS.
    
    RODRIGUEZ
    
    &&
    
    .MARINE...
    243 PM CDT
    
    A LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
    EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO WESTERN IOWA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
    EAST TO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE OF
    THE LOW WILL FALL TO 29.4 INCHES BY THEN. THIS RAPID PRESSURE FALL
    WILL CREATE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A STRONG WIND OVER LAKE
    MICHIGAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO LAKE HURON TO CENTRAL
    KENTUCKY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL GIVE A WEST TO NORTHWEST
    WIND OVER LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL REACH GALE FORCE
    FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING...THE LOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO
    ...JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON. THE LOW HAVING A LOWER PRESSURE AND
    A LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GIVE A STRONG
    WIND UP TO GALES FRIDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM NEW YORK
    TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND A HIGH WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY
    NIGHT. WE EXPECT THE WIND TO DIMINISH IN SPEED SATURDAY NIGHT.
    
    &&
    
    .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    IL...NONE.
    IN...NONE.
    LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
         LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM
         SATURDAY.
    
         GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
         LMZ868...1 PM FRIDAY TO 5 PM SATURDAY.
    
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
         UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY.
    
         GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...1 PM
         FRIDAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY.
    
    &&
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KILX 030450
    AFDILX
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
    1150 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .DISCUSSION...
    ISSUED 848 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWING COLD FRONT HAD REACHED THE ILLINOIS
    RIVER. STILL HAVE INTENSE STORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR TUSCOLA
    SOUTHWEST TO AROUND LITCHFIELD...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS
    IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND A FEW MILES BEHIND THE FRONT. BOUNDARY IS
    STILL ON PACE TO REACH THE I-70 CORRIDOR TOWARD 06Z AND BE OUT OF
    THE CWA WELL BEFORE SUNRISE. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 50S AS CLOSE AS
    CENTRAL IOWA...AND THEY SHOULD REACH AS FAR AS I-57 BEFORE THE
    NIGHT IS OUT.
    
    WILL BE UPDATING THE ZONES SOON TO REFRESH THE WORDING...AS WELL
    AS UPDATE THE GRIDS FOR HOURLY TRENDS. THE GENERAL TRENDS OF THE
    PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE STILL VALID THOUGH.
    
    GEELHART
    
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...
    ISSUED 1150 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010...FOR THE 06Z TAFS
    
    THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE STEADILY PROGRESSING EASTWARD.
    ALL PRECIP HAS ENDED AT PIA...WITH SHOWERS THROUGH 07Z AT SPI, 08Z
    AT BMI, 09Z AT DEC, AND 10Z AT CMI. MOST CIGS ARE ALREADY
    VFR...BUT A STRAY MVFR DECK MAY LINGER DURING ANY PERIODS OF RAIN
    THE NEXT 4 HOURS.
    
    VIS MAY DROP TO MVFR IN LOCALIZED AREAS. GUID FOR BMI POINTED TWRD
    SOME FOG...SO WE ADDED A MENTION AFTER 11Z...WHEN CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.
    
    THE NEXT BIG ISSUE WILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY.
    GUSTS TO 25-30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
    SHOULD DIMINISH WITH AROUND SUNSET ON FRIDAY.
    
    SHIMON
    &&
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION...
    ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    MAIN CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE PCPN CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
    OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. THEN NEXT CONCERN
    IS CHANCES OF PCPN FOR NEXT WEEK AND TEMPS.
    
    MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING FRONT THROUGH CWA
    QUICKLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRSS BRINGING IN DRIER AND
    COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO OF BLEND OF
    THE SHORT TERM MODELS LOOKS GOOD THIS PACKAGE. IN THE LONG
    TERM...MODELS AGREE THAT A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN
    STORE FOR NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO THE
    EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
    
    SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
    
    COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE CWA/STATE AND APPEARS TO STILL BE
    IN EASTERN IOWA AT 19Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IT THROUGH THIS
    EVENING...REACHING INTO INDIANA BY 06Z. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SFC
    DEWPOINTS STILL ARE AROUND 70 TO LOWER 70S. SO SHOWERS AND
    THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA. SO WILL KEEP
    A LIKELY POP IN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH IT TO
    CHC IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST. AFTER
    THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRSS WILL BUILD INTO
    THE CWA FOR INTO THE WEEKEND. THROUGH THE PERIOD THE UPPER LEVEL
    FLOW WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW A COOLER THAN NORMAL
    AIRMASS TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD BE A TAD GUSTY
    TOMORROW AS A SECONDARY TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE GRT LKS REGION
    AND THE HI PRSS RIDGE SITS OVER THE PLAINS. GRADIENT WILL THEN
    DIMINISH FOR SAT AND SUN AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEATHER IN
    CENTRAL IL.
    
    TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD AND GUIDANCE LOOKS
    REASONABLE AT THIS TIME.
    
    LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
    
    THE HI PRSS WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE
    LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE
    NEXT TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS TO THE EAST OF THE STATES AS WELL. THE
    UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE
    WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THE
    PLAINS...BRINGING CHANCES OF PCPN TO THE CWA FOR TUE NIGHT AND
    WEDNESDAY. TUE NIGHT AND WED LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
    FALLING INTO THE CWA AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STAYS ACRS THE NORTHERN
    US. THIS FRONT APPEARS TO WASH OUT OF THE STATE THEN AND THEN
    BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THUR...BRINGING
    ANOTHER CHANCE OF PCPN TO THE AREA.
    
    SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING THE RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS TO THE
    REGION NEXT WEEK AND MEX GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON
    THIS.
    
    AUTEN
    
    
    &&
    
    .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KLSX 030500
    AFDLSX
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
    1200 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010
    
    .DISCUSSION...
    /355 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TSRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
    THRU THE EVE HOURS.
    
    TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROF AND ARE EXPECTED TO FILL
    IN AS THE LINE MOVE SEWD. EXPECT TSRA TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY FRI
    MORNING WITH CLEARING BEHIND THE LINE WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO
    THE AREA.
    
    MDLS AGREE WELL WITH LARGE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WITH
    DRY AND COOL AIR IN PLACE. MDLS PROG 8 TO 10C 850MB TEMPS ACROSS THE
    AREA ON SAT...WHICH SHUD RESULT IN LWR TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS. WENT A
    LITTLE HIGHER SINCE IT IS STILL EARLY SEPT...BUT THIS IS TRENDED TWD
    THE COOLER MOS TEMPS. OVERALL...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE SHORT
    TERM FROM THE PREV FCST.
    
    TILLY
    
    EXTENDED (MON - THURS)...
    
    SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT STAGE RIGHT INTO THE SERN CONUS
    GIVING US ONE MORE DAY OF COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY UNDER
    CLEAR SKIES. ANTICIPATE WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT THAT
    TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
    THEREAFTER SLY FLOW WILL RETURN USHERING WARMER AIR ACROSS THE RGN.
    H85 MID-LVL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF IMPULSES THRU THE H5
    LONGWAVE PATTERN  OVER THE INTER-MTN WEST WILL VEER SWLY AND ADVECT
    +20-24C TEMPS.  HAVE UPPED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MONDAY.
    DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACRS THE RGN IN ASSOC WITH A RIDGE OF
    SFC HIGH PRESSURE AS IT CONTINUALLY DRIFTS INTO THE SERN CONUS.
    
    INTO TUE MDL SOLNS SUCCINCT IN HANDLING OF UPR LVL FEATURES AND DEEP
    SFC LOW OVER THE N-CNTRL CONUS. A SFC FRONTAL BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO
    STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE MO-IA BORDER BUT REMAIN FAIRLY MOISTURE
    STARVED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
    SERN CONUS REMAINS WELL IN PLACE. WITH SFC AND MID-LVL SLY FLOW
    ADVECTING AN UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS NWD THRU THE RGN HAVE SLIGHT
    POPS FOR TUE ALONG THE STALLED SFC FRTL BNDRY BECOMING CATEGORICAL
    WED INTO THURS AS A DEEP H5 TROF BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE
    INTER-MTN WEST. SOME UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER
    EXPECTED WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PROCESSES AND POTENTIAL ASCENT
    ASSOC WITH UPR LVL IMPULSES EJECTING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LIFTING
    H5 TROF BY END OF THE FCST PD.  HOW THIS WILL IMPACT SFC TEMPS
    REMAIN TO BE SEEN...FOR NOW ANTICIPATE NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.  AS THE
    UPR LVL DISTURBANCE EJECTS NEWD INTO THE GREAT LKS RGN SFC HIGH PRES
    WILL BUILD THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS AND KICK THE INCLEMENT WEATHER EWD
    HOPEFULLY LEAVING US DRY BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
    
    SIPPRELL
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...
    /1143 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    A FEW LINGERING SHRA WERE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO AND SOUTHWEST
    IL AT 05Z BUT PCPN WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z.
    VFR CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND SCT
    DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TOMORROW. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE BY
    MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED DURING THE
    AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME STEAM FOG IN RIVER
    VALLEYS TOWARDS AND JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF PD DUE TO
    DECREASING WINDS...WARM RIVER/LAKE TEMPERATURES...AND MUCH COOLER
    AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
    
    SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...VFR THROUGH THE PD. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
    INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS
    EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
    
    KANOFSKY
    
    &&
    
    .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    MO...NONE.
    IL...NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    
    WFO LSX
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KPAH 030422 AAA
    AFDPAH
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
    1122 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .UPDATE...
    UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
    
    &&
    
    .DISCUSSION...
    MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST ARE POPS TONIGHT...AND
    TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION RETURNS
    TO POPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
    
    THE BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCHING EASTWARD
    ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY HAS FINALLY DRIED UP. WOULD EXPECT
    THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
    
    12Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL INDICATING THAT THE FRONT WILL RIP
    THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. EXAMINATION OF MODEL
    SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE REGION STILL NOT INDICATING ROBUST FORCING OR
    INSTABILITY TO WARRANT LIKELY OR BETTER POPS WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT.
    FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED CONVECTION...LIKELY EFFECTING THE
    KMVN AREA 03Z-06Z...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 06Z-12Z. AS
    SUCH...LIMITED POPS TO AROUND 50 WITH SCATTERED WORDING. WOULD NOT
    EXPECT MUCH WIDESPREAD QPF...ON AVERAGE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.
    
    THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN OMAHA AND KANSAS CITY...WITH
    DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S BEHIND IT AND GUSTY WINDS OVER 30KTS
    ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA. CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL DATA HAS DEWPOINTS
    NEAR 50 OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
    THIS FORECAST MAY NOT BE DRY OR COOL ENOUGH OVER THE
    WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE
    SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE
    COOL AND VERY DRY...WITH MONDAY WARMING UP TO AROUND 90 IN MOST
    LOCATIONS.
    
    SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. BASICALLY
    THE GFS AND ECWMF HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE
    UPPER RIDGE THEY DEVELOP NEXT WEEK. THEY ARE NOW SUPPRESSING THE
    RIDGE DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND COASTAL REGION. THE CONSENSUS
    IS NOW FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AROUND THE RIDGE
    AND TOWARD THE QUAD STATE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED
    THE 00Z ECMWF FOR POP POSITIONING...HOLDING THEM OFF UNTIL DURING
    THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE
    AND POPS WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...
    A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
    BY 12Z FRIDAY...TURNING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
    UP TO 20 MPH.
    
    &&
    
    .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    KY...NONE.
    MO...NONE.
    IL...NONE.
    IN...NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    
    JAP/RST
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KDVN 020947
    HWODVN
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
    447 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
    009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-031000-
    BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
    CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
    HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
    WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
    WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
    447 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
    ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
    CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
    MISSOURI.
    
    .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
    
    A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY...PROVIDING
    ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE
    REGION BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES...LIMITING INSTABILITY FOR STORMS.
    HOWEVER...IF THE SUN CAN COME OUT AND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
    80S...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY. THE STORM
    PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
    THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FOR MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. IF STRONG STORMS
    DO FORM...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
    
    AFTER THE FRONT MOVES PAST THIS EVENING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
    AIR WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
    
    AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
    FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
    WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR
    SEVERE WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY.
    
    $$
    
    ERVIN/HAASE
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KLOT 030355
    HWOLOT
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
    1055 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
    040400-
    WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
    DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
    IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
    1055 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 /1155 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
    NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
    
    .DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.
    
      WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:
    
      THUNDERSTORMS...THE STRONGEST MAY PRODUCE:
       CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
       LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
       WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
    
      AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:
    
      NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH 1 AM CDT.
    
      DISCUSSION:
    
      A POTENT COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST
      ILLINOIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DEEP LAYER
      SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 50KTS AND IS FAIRLY UNIFORM FROM THE
      WEST...AND VEERING NORTHWEST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS ALONG
      AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
      REMAINS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS.
    
      IN ADDITION PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF NEARLY 2 INCHES EXTENDS
      ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS
      THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF DOWNPOURS.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
    
    THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE INDIANA
    SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT.
    
    &&
    
    COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
    WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO
    
    $$
    
    LMZ740>745-040400-
    WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
    WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
    NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
    GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
    1055 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
    WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
    MICHIGAN.
    
    .DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.
    
    WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WITH
    STRONG WINDS PRODUCING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
    ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
    
    WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE FRIDAY AND
    FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY...BUT
    WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HIGH WAVES AND HAZARDOUS
    CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ESPECIALLY FOR THE INDIANA NEARSHORE
    WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
    
    &&
    
    COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
    WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO
    
    $$
    
    LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
    870-872-874-876-878-040400-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
    OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
    OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
    MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
    FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
    MID LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
    MID LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
    MID LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
    MID LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
    TO MID LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
    OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
    OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
    OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
    OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
    OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
    LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
    LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
    MID LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
    LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
    LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
    MID LAKE-
    1055 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
    MICHIGAN.
    
    .DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.
    
    WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
    
    GALE FORCE WINDS TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AND
    CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
    
    &&
    
    COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
    WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO
    
    $$
    
    BEACHLER
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KILX 022048
    HWOILX
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
    348 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-031100-
    CASS-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON-
    MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK-
    TAZEWELL-WOODFORD-
    348 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
    ILLINOIS.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT
    
    A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...TRIGGERING
    SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PRESENT INDICATIONS
    SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
    WINDS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH LATER
    THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT...WHICH
    IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING.
    
    $$
    
    ILZ044>046-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-031100-
    CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR-
    EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SHELBY-
    VERMILION-
    348 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
    ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT
    
    A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING...TRIGGERING
    SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
    BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH AREAS FURTHER WEST SEEING THE BETTER
    CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH
    OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.
    
    $$
    
    BARNES
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KLSX 022052
    HWOLSX
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
    352 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
    034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-031200-
    GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
    MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
    CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
    LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
    AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
    LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
    ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
    WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
    MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
    352 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
    CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT
    
    THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME OF
    THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE
    WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF
    60 MPH. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
    
    &&
    
    FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
    WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1
    
    $$
    
    TILLY
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KPAH 022050
    HWOPAH
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
    350 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
    100-107>112-114-031000-
    JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
    WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
    HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
    WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
    LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
    UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
    MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
    RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
    350 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
    ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
    MISSOURI.
    
    .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
    
    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
    THROUGH THE QUAD STATE TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL ENTER THE AREA
    AROUND 10 PM AND PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA
    THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
    PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH OVER SOUTHEAST
    MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS EVENING. THE STORMS ARE
    EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AND WEAKEN AS THEY SPREAD
    SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE QUAD STATE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
    WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS WEST
    KENTUCKY. ANY STORMS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
    
    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA
    WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
    
    $$
    
    DRS
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KTOP 030451
    AFDTOP
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
    1151 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .UPDATE...
    
    UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION.
    
    &&
    
    .DISCUSSION...
    
    SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...
    
    EXPECT THERE TO ENOUGH WIND ALOFT AND CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION
    TO KEEP FOG IN CHECK TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...AND THE OCCASIONAL
    CIRRUS SHOULD HELP AS WELL. ONLY OTHER AVIATION CONCERN IS WIND
    CHANGES...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT LIKELY FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR
    MUCH OF FRIDAY...AND A QUICK DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
    
    65
    
    &&
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    DISCUSSION...
    
    THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...
    
    POTENT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED ON A LINE FROM ATCHISON TO ALMA
    TO HERINGTON MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 30
    MPH. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PORTIONS OF EAST
    CENTRAL KANSAS RECEIVED AMPLE HEATING FROM THE SUN WHICH HAS AIDED
    IN DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
    ANDERSON...FRANKLIN...OSAGE...AND LYON COUNTIES. BREAKS IN THE
    CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN SHAWNEE...DOUGLAS...NORTHERN LYON...AND
    JEFFERSON COUNTIES HAS ALLOWED SOME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. AS
    THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD IT WILL KICKOFF A ROUND OF
    THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG IN INTENSITY. SEVERE WEATHER
    IS MOST LIKELY IN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.
    FORECAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF APPROXIMATELY 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL ALLOW
    SOME UPDRAFTS TO BECOME QUITE TALL AND DEMONSTRATE SOME ROTATION.
    WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 14 TO 15 KFT HAIL BECOMES MORE OF A
    CONCERN. DRY COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PREVENT MUCH WIND FROM
    ANY STORM BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FROM REACHING THE SURFACE...BUT STORMS
    FIRING ALONG OR IN FRONT OF THE BOUNDARY COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
    STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS
    CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE
    DAY PROGRESSES AND THE SUN SETS. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT ACROSS
    MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG COULD FORM IN SOME AREAS DUE
    TO COOL TEMPERATURES...CALM WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER DRY
    AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION.
    FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT A CLEAR DAY WITH
    COOL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY.
    
    JL
    
    SAT/SUN/MON...FORECAST FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE AN
    ENJOYABLE ONE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS AROUND TO SOUTHERLY
    WIND LATE SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS THAT DAY IN THE LOW 80S AFTER A
    NIGHT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND THE 50 MARK.  NW FLOW ALOFT
    TRANSITIONS TO WEAK RIDGING AND SLOWLY INCREASES WINDS AND TEMPS TO
    BRING LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE 50S AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY INTO THE
    MID TO UPPER 80S.  NEXT FRONT APPROACHES EASTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY
    AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING A CHANCE OF STORMS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS
    NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT BEING ON THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROF
    UNDER WESTERLY FLOW...NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE
    IT.  WILL LEAVE POPS OUT BUT COOL HIGHS ACROSS NC COUNTIES INTO THE
    80S AND LEAVE EAST CENTRAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S.
    
    TUESDAYS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT HANGS UP OVER THE
    CENTRAL PLAINS.  GFS INDICATING IT STALLS ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY
    WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OF THE
    INTERSTATE ON TUESDAY MORNING...THEN THINKING BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY
    ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL LEAVE A CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE
    AFTERNOON. COULD BE A MORE DRAMATIC DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES
    THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS WHICH CONTINUES THE LOWER TO
    MID 80S NORTH AND NEAR 90 EAST CENTRAL SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LIFT
    OVER THE FRONT FROM THE LLJ ON TUESDAY NIGHT WARRANTS A CONTINUATION
    OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTH
    SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LIFTS THE FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA.
    THIS INCREASES POSSIBILITIES OF RIPPLES OF ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS
    EASTERN KS IN THE SW FLOW AND KEPT POPS CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR
    THURSDAY AS A RESULT. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN
    THE 60S. 67
    
    &&
    
    .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
    
    &&
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KICT 030428
    AFDICT
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
    1128 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
    SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
    BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
    EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24HRS.
    
    JAKUB
    
    &&
    
    PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    DISCUSSION...
    
    SYNOPSIS...
    A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KPTT-KHUT-KEMP AT 18:30Z.  THIS FRONT IS
    A FAST MOVING ONE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BEHIND IT.  CONVECTION
    BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND IT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ALONG WITH THE FRONT.
    
    INSTABILITIES CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPES
    OF 2500-3000 J/KG.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS AROUND 35 KNOTS WHICH
    SHOULD FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE PRIMARY STORM MODE BEING
    SUPERCELLS COMBINED WITH MULTICELL CONVECTION. THE MAIN SEVERE
    WEATHER THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGING WIND...IN THAT
    ORDER AT THE MOMENT.
    
    UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A DISTURBANCE CENTERED AND MOVING ACROSS
    THE NORTHERN PLAINS PROVIDING SOME UPPER DYNAMIC SUPPORT /RIGHT REAR
    QUAD OF THE JET/ FOR CONVECTION.
    
    TONIGHT:
    ONGOING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS
    A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH.  INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE MOST
    FAVORABLE OVER EASTERN KANSAS TO SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION.  THAT
    SAID...THE OPPORTUNITY IS LIMITED BASED ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT
    AND THE EXITING DYNAMIC SUPPORT.  SO...THINK THERE IS A SMALL
    WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR SEVERE
    CONVECTION...CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR SEVERE CONVECTION...OR ANY
    CONVECTION FOR THAT MATTER...WEST OF INTERSTATE 135.
    
    ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...THERE WILL BE WINDS GUSTING TO 40 TO 50 MPH
    RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.  THIS LASTS ONLY FOR 15 TO 20 MINUTES...SO
    DO NOT FEEL THIS WARRANTS AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE
    DURATION.  WE ARE ADDRESSING THIS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
    /SPS/.
    
    FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:
    FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL
    GRADUALLY EVOLVE TO WHERE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
    THIS WILL CAUSE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
    STATES...WITH THE PLAINS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRANSITION.
    
    AS FAR AS THE SPECIFICS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE
    REGION AND BRING HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND.  ON
    SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN AS THE HIGH RAPIDLY EXITS AND A
    LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS.  THIS STRENGTHENS THROUGH MONDAY.  A DISTURBANCE
    MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
    SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
    THIS OCCURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL THROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
    CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH IN THIS CAUSING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO
    INCREASE DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.
    
    COOK
    
    AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU
    THERE ARE 3 PRIMARY PROBLEMS TO BE DEALT WITH THIS AFTERNOON:
    
    1) THE EXPECTED STRONG-SVR TSRA THAT SHOULD ERUPT OVER SC & SE KS AS
    COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS SE SURGE.
    2) PIN-POINTING EXACT ARRIVAL TIME OF COLD FRONT...OBVIOUSLY FOR
    WIND SHIFT PURPOSES.
    3) HOW FAR POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
    AFTERNOON & EARLY THIS EVENING OVER SE KS.
    
    WITH NLY POST-FRONTAL GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT HAVE PRESSED HARDER ON
    WIND THROTTLE OVER PRIMARILY CNTRL KS WITH SUSTAINED 25KTS ASSIGNED
    TO KRSL FOR MOST OF AFTERNOON. AS STATED IN "UPDATE" STRONG-SVR TSRA
    TO BREAK OUT OVER SC & SE KS AS COLD FRONT SURGES INTO VERY MOIST &
    DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. UNTIL EXACT LOCATIONS OF THE EXPECTED TSRA
    COME INTO BETTER FOCUS HAVE ASSIGNED "VCTS" TO NEARLY ALL TERMINALS
    FOR TIME BEING. SKIES TO CLEAR RAPIDLY IN NW-SE MANNER WITH RAPIDLY
    DIMINISHING NLY WINDS AS FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE OVER
    KS FORCING COLD FRONT THRU KCNU ~02/21Z.
    
    ES
    
    &&
    
    .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
    WICHITA-KICT    58  80  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
    HUTCHINSON      56  79  54  82 /   0   0  10  10
    NEWTON          58  78  54  82 /   0   0   0   0
    ELDORADO        58  78  52  82 /   0   0   0   0
    WINFIELD-KWLD   57  80  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
    RUSSELL         52  79  54  86 /   0   0  10  10
    GREAT BEND      52  79  54  86 /   0   0  10  10
    SALINA          55  79  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
    MCPHERSON       56  79  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
    COFFEYVILLE     57  80  52  84 /  10   0   0   0
    CHANUTE         57  78  51  83 /  10   0   0   0
    IOLA            56  78  51  82 /   0   0   0   0
    PARSONS-KPPF    57  79  52  84 /  10   0   0   0
    
    &&
    
    .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KDDC 022025 CCA
    AFDDDC
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
    325 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .DISCUSSION...
    
    DAYS 1-2...
    
    FORECAST ISSUES THIS PERIOD REVOLVE AROUND INCOMING SURFACE HIGH
    PRESSURE AND HOW WINDY IT MAY REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
    AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND THEN FOLLOWED BY HOW COLD IT MAY GET
    OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
    FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WE HEAD INTO A DRY PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM.
    
    A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED SOUTHEAST TO A LINE FROM
    QUIVIRA TO DODGE CITY AND LIBERAL, AND WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA
    LEAVING WIDESPREAD NORTH WINDS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
    BE BREEZY IN THE EVENING DUE TO A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, BUT THE
    MECHANICAL MIXING SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BELOW THE WIND ADVISORY
    CRITERIA IN THE WEST. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES THE GRADIENT WILL
    QUICKLY DIMINISH AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DROP BELOW ABOUT 15 MPH BY
    LATE EVENING. THE OTHER IMPORTANT FACTOR WILL BE JUST HOW DRY THE
    SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE TONIGHT AND HOW LIGHT THE WINDS MIGHT BECOME
    WHICH COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN WHETHER WE SEE LOW
    TEMPERATURES IN OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40
    DUE TO PROLONGED RADIATIONAL COOLING, OR REMAIN STILL A GOOD 10
    DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. VERY DRY AIR WITH
    DEW POINTS IN THE 30S IS ALREADY BEING SEEN ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
    OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA, WHICH WOULD UNDERSCORE A
    STRONGER ARGUMENT FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DESPITE THE RECENT
    NAM OUTPUT OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT SURFACE AIR.
    
    MOVING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, A VERY PLEASANT DAY APPEARS TO BE
    SHAPING UP AS WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER COLD ADVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS
    THE AREA THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
    KANSAS. FARTHER WEST, TEMPERATURES COULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S
    BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S EXISTS ACROSS THE
    NORTHEAST COUNTIES. A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS WAS USED FOR FRIDAY
    AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERLY  WINDS RETURN ON THE HEELS OF AN
    EASTWARD ADVANCING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE, WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
    THETA-E AIR AND DEEPER MIXING. WIDESPREAD 80S AS WELL AS A FEW
    PLACES ACROSS THE WEST REACHING THE 90S AGAIN IS LIKELY BY SATURDAY
    AFTERNOON.
    
    RUSSELL
    
    DAYS 3-7...
    
    THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LVL S/W TROF WAS STILL ON TRACK TO
    MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
    WEEK. AS IT DOES OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO WRN KS.
    BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVES THIS FRONT INTO THE CWA LATE MONDAY AND
    THEN BEGINS TO ENHANCE UVV NORTH OF THIS FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE
    RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LVL JET STARTS TO INFLUENCE
    NORTHERN KANSAS. WITH THIS IN MIND COMBINED WITH THE WAA DEVELOPING
    NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS ACROSS OUR NRN CWA
    MONDAY NIGHT.
    
    BY TUESDAY NIGHT THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN THEN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM
    FRONT BUT UNTIL THIS FRONT EXITS NRN KS WILL NOT COMPLETELY ABLE TO
    RULE OUT SOME LINGERING PCPN IN OUR N/NE CWA. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY
    ON JUST HOW QUICKLY AND HOW FAR NORTH THIS FRONT WILL MOVE MID WEEK
    HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH PERSISTENCE AND LEAVE SMALL POPS AS IS IN
    OUR N/NE CWA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...
    
    MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30KT RANGE CAN BE
    ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH
    INTO OKLAHOMA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS AND MVFR
    CIGS WILL HOWEVER QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING
    WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z AS A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
    STARTS TO SETTLES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AFTER 3Z FRI
    EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTH WINDS BELOW 10KTS.
    
    18
    
    &&
    
    .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
    DDC  51  79  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
    GCK  49  81  48  90 /   0   0   0   0
    EHA  49  80  52  91 /   0   0   0   0
    LBL  48  81  52  91 /   0   0   0   0
    HYS  50  78  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
    P28  54  80  52  84 /   0   0   0   0
    
    &&
    
    .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ076-077-086-
    087.
    
    &&
    
    $$
    
    FN33/18
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KGLD 030430
    AFDGLD
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
    1030 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .DISCUSSION...
    239 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    1845 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS
    NORTHERN CONUS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS BOTH SW AND SE CONUS.
    CWA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON BACKSIDE OF TROUGH, WITH DRY AIR
    CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO AREA. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
    OVERNIGHT TEMPS, FOLLOWED BY RAPID WARMUP OVER THE WEEKEND.
    
    TONIGHT...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
    OVER AREA. A BIT CONCERNED THAT RUC WANTS TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER DEW
    PTS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S OVERNIGHT, BUT THE RUC ALSO IS NOT
    CAPTURING CURRENT DEWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS NE COLO AND SW NEB
    WELL. BELIEVE THIS DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER DEW PTS INTO THE
    MID/UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT AND OVERALL WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH
    OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW ZONES TO THE MID/UPPER 40S SE ZONES.
    
    TOMORROW-MONDAY...GRADUAL WARMUP STARTS TOMORROW, WITH MORE RAPID
    WARMUP ENSUING OVER WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD AREA. HAVE
    TWEAKED HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES. QUESTIONS AS TO HOW WARM TO MAKE IT
    SUNDAY. RUN TO RUN MODEL COMPS SHOWS HIGHER THICKNESSES SUNDAY
    VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS, MOS DEPICTS MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
    CWA, AND LOCAL BIAS CORRECTIONS WOULD SUGGEST SOME AREAS APPROACHING
    IF NOT REACHING 100 DEGREES. WILL BUMP TEMPS TO THE MID/UPPER 90S IN
    MOST AREAS FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE. FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL
    LOOKS GOOD FOR MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WOULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON
    HIGHS, BUT CURRENT THINKING TO DROP TEMPS BY 5-10 DEGREES LOOKS
    GOOD. HAVE KEPT MONDAY DRY WITH SILENT POPS UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
    WHEN BOTH EXT MODELS DEPICT A BIT OF QPF.
    
    IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ADVERTISING BROAD UPPER
    LEVEL DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
    CENTERED OVER SE CONUS, WITH CWA UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AND
    POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE PATTERN. THE GFS CLOSES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
    OVER CALIFORNIA WHEREAS THE EC KEEPS THE TROUGH OPEN, AND THUS THE
    GFS IS A BIT SLOWER IN ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. BIGGEST DIFF BTWN
    THE TWO MODELS IS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, BUT HAVE BROADBRUSHED
    SLIGHT POPS BEGINNING TUE EVE THROUGH WED AS BOTH MODELS COMING INTO
    BETTER AGREEMENT IN PAINTING PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH
    POSITION OF SFC FRONT IN QUESTION.
    
    50
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...
    1030 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR FOR KGLD AND KMCK. SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OVER
    THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SLIDING EAST FOR THE
    REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. LGT/VAR WINDS
    WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY AT KGLD BY 18Z AND KMCK AFTER 00Z.
    
    07
    
    &&
    
    .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    KS...NONE.
    NE...NONE.
    CO...NONE.
    
    &&
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KGID 030529
    AFDGID
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
    1229 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010
    
    .AVIATION...06Z TAF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR
    THROUGH THE PERIOD...LEAVING WINDS AS THE ONLY REAL ITEM OF
    INTEREST. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND AN AREA OF
    SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE
    HIGH PLAINS. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS MIXING
    INCREASES...RESULTING IN GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. BY LATE
    AFTERNOON...THIS CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WINDS BEING MIXED DOWN TO
    THE SURFACE WILL SHIFT EAST OF KGRI AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM
    THE WEST...ALLOWING SPEEDS TO DROP TO BELOW 12 KTS. WINDS WILL
    THEN TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE
    RIDGE AXIS PASSES BY.
    
    &&
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE
    CWFA WITH SHARPLY LOWER DEWPOINTS /40S/ AND GUSTY WINDS IN ITS
    WAKE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT DROP OFF
    QUICKLY. MODELS SHOW A BIT OF GUSTINESS EARLY FRIDAY OVER AREAS
    EAST OF HIGHWAY 281...AND WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF THAT AREA WAS
    BREEZY /UP TO 25 MPH/ DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
    MOVE INTO LATER IN THE DAY AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF DURING THE DAY
    FROM WEST TO EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REFLECT THE DRY AIR AND DIP
    INTO THE 40S AND 50S...AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE FOR MIDDLE 70S IN
    SOME AREAS FRIDAY. CERTAINLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
    
    THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A WARMING TREND AS SOUTHERLY WINDS START
    TO PICK UP. STRONG MID LEVEL CAP MOVES INTO THE CWFA BY SATURDAY
    EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST. THE AFTERNOON
    HOURS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES. OVERALL...ITS GOING TO BE A PRETTY
    NICE WEEKEND.
    
    LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z MONDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER
    UPON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
    AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA...SOUTHWARD
    INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS
    TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHWESTERN U.S.
    THIS WEEKEND BEFORE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
    ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE MONDAY. BOTH THE EC AND OPERATIONAL GFS
    INDICATE A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT OUT FROM THE TROUGH
    MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY
    TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING
    SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG A 50KT JET
    STREAK...WHICH WILL IN TURN STRENGTHEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.
    SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS NOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
    PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE SURFACE LOW THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH
    ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ON INTO SOUTHERN CANADA OUT AHEAD
    OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. WHILE THERE WERE DISAGREEMENTS
    YESTERDAY BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC REGARDING THE
    ASSOCIATED FROPA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW...BOTH
    MODELS NOW INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA
    DURING THE DAY MONDAY...LIKELY CLEARING OUR ENTIRE CWA BY 06Z TUE.
    LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
    STALL OUT SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN OR CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY. THE
    AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ROUND THE
    BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH AND EJECT OFF TO THE
    NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND AS A RESULT...ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE
    CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF
    COLORADO...THUS ALLOWING THE SURFACE FRONT OVER KANSAS TO SURGE
    NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
    
    BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PRESENT PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF
    THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED
    YESTERDAY...FRONTAL TIMING APPEARS KEY TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION
    MONDAY AFTERNOON. NOW THAT THE EC AND OPERATIONAL GFS HAVE FALLEN IN
    LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
    FOR MONDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST FOR LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO THE
    BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA INTO
    TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
    ALSO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK
    NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...AND AN AXIS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP IN
    THE 310-320K SURFACE RANGE PER THE EC.
    
    ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
    THE LOW TO MID 20S C. THIS SHOULD YIELD MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
    THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S F. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
    POST-FROPA ON TUESDAY...WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES FORECAST
    WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
    
    &&
    
    .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    NE...NONE.
    KS...NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    
    AVIATION...KB
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KTOP 030001
    HWOTOP
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
    701 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-040015-
    REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
    POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
    WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
    701 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
    CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT
    
    THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
    WEDNESDAY.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT.
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KICT 030316
    HWOICT
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
    1016 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-040330-
    RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
    RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
    SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
    1016 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
    SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER
    PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
    RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.
    
    &&
    
    FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
    WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KDDC 030039 AAA
    HWODDC
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
    739 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-040045-
    TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
    PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
    PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
    739 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 /639 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
    CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
    INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
    FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. AS A RESULT OF THESE
    CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES WEST OF
    HIGHWAY 283 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
    
    THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO
    EARLY TO TELL IF A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WHETHER EXISTS.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
    
    &&
    
    FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC
    
    $$
    
    06
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KGLD 022230
    HWOGLD
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
    430 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-031200-
    YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
    SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
    DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
    430 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010 /530 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
    NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KGID 021934
    HWOGID
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
    234 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
    031200-
    PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
    SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
    GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
    WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
    234 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
    PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
    
    THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
    
    SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA
    BEGINNING NEXT MONDAY...AND CONTINUE PERIODICALLY THROUGH
    WEDNESDAY.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
    
    &&
    
    MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
       HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KGRR 030355
    AFDGRR
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
    1155 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION...
    
    .SYNOPSIS...(430 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010)
    OUR FIRST TASTE OF AUTUMN LIKE WEATHER IS ON THE WAY.
    
    ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN
    APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE
    OF COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
    ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE ONLY
    IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
    
    INCREASING WEST WINDS WILL ADD FURTHER CHILL TO THE AIR... AND
    GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
    SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
    THEN GRADUALLY END SATURDAY.
    
    &&
    
    .SHORT TERM...(430 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010)
    (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
    WE HAVE BEEN STUCK IN THICK CLOUD COVER WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY SO
    COVERAGE OF ANY TSTMS HAS BEEN ISOLATED AT BEST TODAY. HOWEVER
    INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO INCREASE FOR THE 03Z-09Z TIME FRAME AHEAD
    OF THE ADVANCING AND STRENGTHENING SFC COLD FRONT.
    
    SUSPECT COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WILL BE FILLING IN TOWARD
    03Z PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT
    WHICH SHOULD BE GETTING OVER LAKE MI BY 06Z AND NEAR LAN AND JXN
    MORE TOWARD 09Z. SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW/MARGINAL... ALTHOUGH SOME
    WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION ALONG THE
    FRONT. SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE RISE OR AT LEAST HOLDING
    STEADY THROUGH 06Z IN SW LOW LEVEL FLOW.
    
    THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CWFA TO START THE
    DAY FRIDAY SO SOME MORNING SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE... BUT COLD
    ADVECTION/WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE COMING IN
    DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM NW TO SE. CONSIDERED POSTING A WIND
    ADVISORY FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES ALREADY FOR FRI AFTERNOON AND
    NIGHT... BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND LET THE MID SHIFT ISSUE.
    
    THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT... AS WELL AS DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
    LAKE GENERATED INSTABILITY... COMES IN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY
    LIKELY POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AS WELL AS
    THE AREA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 96 CORRIDOR WHERE MODELS HAVE BEST
    LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL BE
    STRONG ENOUGH TO CARRY THE RAIN SHOWERS WELL INLAND TOWARD JXN.
    BELIEVE ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL AND WOULD NOT
    EVEN RULE OUT SOME GRAUPEL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER CONVECTION.
    
    THE SYSTEM BEGINS LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND WILL
    HAVE SHOWERS ENDING IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA. HOWEVER LINGERING DEEPER
    MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE FAR NRN CWFA WILL PROBABLY ALLOW
    SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO LINGER.  ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE THE RAIN
    END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S INLAND FROM LAKE
    MICHIGAN.
    
    &&
    
    .LONG TERM...(430 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010)
    (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
    MAIN CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. HAVE
    GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT
    THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
    
    AFTER A DRY SUNDAY FEATURING DEEP ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...MODELS DIVERGE
    ON THE EVOLUTION OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
    CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND PROGRESSIVE BY BRINGING A
    SHARP UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH
    ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. HOWEVER...WE FAVOR THE SLOWER
    ECMWF AND FIM SOLUTIONS WHICH KEEP THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AND MEAN
    TROUGH FARTHER W OVER THE PACIFIC NW...WHICH KEEPS A DOWNSTREAM
    UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
    
    GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ARISING FROM THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...HAVE
    OPTED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
    POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED LATER FOR WEDNESDAY AS THERE IS A
    SUGGESTION BY THE GFS/ECMWF OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY
    STRONG RIDGING ALOFT ON THURSDAY WITH A GREATER CONFIDENCE FOR DRY
    CONDITIONS.
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...(1155 PM THU SEP 2 2010)
    THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN MOVING THROUGH ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. ONCE
    THE LINE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THERE
    WILL BE A BRIEF CLEARING (NOT SHOWN IN TAF AS IT WILL NOT LAST TO
    LONG ) NEAR 7 AM... BUT THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE COLD AIR WILL
    QUICKLY FOLLOW SO MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
    WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30 KNOTS BY MID DAY TOO.
    
    &&
    
    .MARINE...(430 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010)
    SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE 15-25 KT SW FLOW AND 3 TO
    6 FOOT WAVES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE SMALL CRAFT
    ADVISORY WILL RUN UP UNTIL THE START OF THE GALE WARNING WHICH
    BEGINS AT 2 PM FRIDAY.
    
    THE GALE WARNING FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY REMAINS IN EFFECT. MODELS
    REMAIN CONSISTENT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF 35-40 KNOT WINDS KICKING
    IN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING UNTIL MID DAY SATURDAY.
    
    DESPITE THE CHILLY AIR OVER THE LAKE... WATERSPOUTS APPEAR UNLIKELY.
    WHILE IT CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT... THE WATERSPOUT STUDY AND
    NOMOGRAM DEVELOPED BY WADE SZILAGYI OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA INDICATES
    850 MB WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 35 KNOTS FOR SPOUTS. THAT IS
    NOT PROGGED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... AT WHICH TIME THE
    DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIFTING OUT.
    
    &&
    
    .HYDROLOGY...(430 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010)
    OTHER THAN SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS NEAR 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE
    LAKESHORE NORTH OF HOLLAND (NORTON SHORES IN PARTICULAR)... RAINFALL
    AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN UNDER ONE INCH.
    
    CORRIDOR OF PWAT VALUES NEAR TWO INCHES STILL EXISTS AHEAD OF THE
    INCOMING COLD FRONT... SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE STILL
    POSSIBLE TONIGHT. HOWEVER LARGER AREAL AVERAGES SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY
    SIGNIFICANT MAINSTEM RIVER RISES.
    
    INDIVIDUAL STORM MOVEMENT AFTER 03Z SHOULD BE INCREASING... WHICH
    SHOULD MITIGATE ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL. QPF FROM SCATTERED
    LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS PROBABLY NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE
    ANY HYDRO ISSUES... BUT IF THUNDER DEVELOPS OFF THE LAKE THERE COULD
    BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS/GRAUPEL.
    
    &&
    
    .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    MI....NONE.
    LM....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 2 PM FRIDAY FOR ST JOSEPH TO
    MANISTEE MI. GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
    SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ST JOSEPH TO MANISTEE MI.
    
    &&
    
    $$
    
    SYNOPSIS:     MEADE
    SHORT TERM:   MEADE
    LONG TERM:    TJT
    AVIATION:     WDM
    MARINE:       MEADE
    HYDROLOGY:    MEADE
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KIWX 030527
    AFDIWX
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
    127 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
    
    .AVIATION...
    NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS TAFS. CDFNT WAS MOVG ACROSS NRN
    INDIANA ATTM WITH A WKNG LINE OF CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING IT. CIGS
    SHOULD SCT OUT THIS MORNING AND WINDS INCREASE AS MIXING DEEPENS IN
    CAA REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A SECONDARY TROF WILL ROTATE AROUND
    UPR GRTLKS LOW AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVE CAUSING CIGS TO
    REDEVELOP AND LOWER. AT SBN THIS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED AND
    FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR.
    
    &&
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    UPDATE/AVIATION...
    STG CDFNT ALG THE MS RVR THIS EVENING IN ASSOCN/W ENERGETIC LT SUMMER
    CYCLONE WILL BLAST EWD OVERNIGHT...REACHING NW IN TWD MIDNIGHT AND
    INTO NW OH AFT 06Z. EXPANDING AREA OF STG-SVR STORMS OVR CNTRL IL
    ALG PRE-FNTL TROUGH WILL LIKELY MELD W/ADVG UPSTREAM POST-FNTL
    STORMS AND CONT ENE THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION W/MODEST EML
    EMBEDDED IN MID LVL DRY SLOT SEEN IN VAPOR AND REINTENSIFICATION OF
    LLJ AS NOTED IN UPSTREAM PROFILER/VWP DATA. HWVR SVR RISK LOCALLY
    CONTS TO APPEAR MARGINAL GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND ONSET OF BNDRY LYR
    BASED STABILIZATION W/SUNSET. THIS AGREES WELL W/21Z RUC HANDLING
    AND SUGGESTS CONVN WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND CARRY INTO FAR WRN ZONES
    TWD 04Z BFR DECAYING W/EWD EXTENT AS FOCUS SHIFTS WWD ALG INCOMING
    SFC CDFNT. PRIMARY NR TERM CHANGE WILL BE TO SHRINK FAR ERN POP
    EXTENT W/REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE.
    
    VFR CONDS XPCD OTHERWISE W/INCREASING TURBULENT MIXING KEEPING CIGS
    BOUND THROUGH LWR END OF VFR CAT. WILL ADD BRIEF TEMPO TSRA MENTION
    AT KSBN PER BTR OVERNIGHT TIMING OF FROPA AND GREATER ELEVATED
    INSTABILITY OTHERWISE BECOMING WINDY FRI AM W/SFC GUSTS AOA 25KTS
    XPCD BY LT MORNING.
    
    SHORT TERM...LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
    
    STRONG/VERY DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER
    MIDWEST WILL PROPAGATE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY BRINGING
    A DRASTIC CHANGE TO MORE EARLY FALL-LIKE WX FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
    WEEKEND. IN THE NEAR TERM...SCT SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE
    NORTHERN/EASTERN FA AS OF 19Z SHOULD SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION OR
    DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
    SRN GREAT LAKES TO THE NE.
    
    SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE AND 70-80 KT MID LVL
    SPEED MAX INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL HELP SPAWN A DEEP SFC LOW
    ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY...WITH THE
    ATTENDANT STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE NW BTW
    4-7Z AND THE SOUTHEAST BTW 7-11Z. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG
    FRONT...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT PER Q-VECTOR AND OMEGA
    PROGS...AND DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD/ALONG
    THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW PRECIP TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
    AS IT MOVES THROUGH...ESPECIALLY WITH CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING
    ALONG THE FRONT IN IA AND WC IL AS OF THIS WRITING. SVR THREAT
    SEEMS TO BE WEST OF HERE PER POOR DIURNAL FROPA TIMING AND LINGERING
    MLCIN FROM MORNING/EARLY AFTN CLOUDS/PRECIP.
    
    DRY SLOT WILL SETTLE IN FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
    BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY AFTN AS THE
    TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE APPROACHES. THE MAIN
    STORY ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE INCREASING WINDS GIVEN STRONG
    PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND MORNING SUNSHINE SUPPORTING DRY
    ADIABATIC LOW LVL LAPSE RATES AND GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER/MIXING.
    HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY...BUT DID UPGRADE MARINE
    HEADLINES. AS FOR TEMPS...ONGOING CAA IS EXPECTED WITH 85H TEMPS
    DROPPING TO AROUND 8/9C BY 18Z FRI...AND EVENTUALLY TO 2/3C BY 12Z
    SATURDAY. PROGGED DRY SLOT AND EXPECTING MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FRI
    HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW/MID 70S.
    
    FINAL CONCERN IS WITH POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY
    AFTN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS 85H DELTA T/S DROP INTO THE 15-20C RANGE
    FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS
    THROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
    INDUCED CAPE VALUES BTW 700-1200 J/KG WITH EQUILIBRIUM LVLS PUSHING
    APPX 15000 FT. WNW LOW LVL FLOW AND STRONG FLOW WILL LIMIT PARCEL
    RESIDENCE TIME...BUT STILL EXPECT SCT SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE DURING
    THIS TIME. WITH THIS...DID RAISE POPS TO LIKELY IN THE FAR NW FRIDAY
    NIGHT.
    
    LONG TERM...
    
    SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
    
    A VERY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SUPPORT LARGE THERMAL AND HEIGHT
    FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS DEPLETING INSOLATION AT HIGH
    LATITUDES SUPPORTS A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NORTHERN NOAM.
    MASSIVE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AT THE
    START OF THE PERIOD WITH H5 HEIGHTS PROGGED AT 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
    BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES...SUPPORTING A VERY INTENSE SFC
    PRESSURE REFLECTION...WITH STRONG TEMP ADVECTIONS ANTICIPATED. FLOW
    WILL THEN MODERATE WITH ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE SUPPORTING DECENT
    MID NOAM RIDGING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THERMAL FIELDS BACK TO
    ABOVE CLIMO NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD
    AGREEMENT IN THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD WITH DISAGREEMENT GROWING
    AMONG THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF BY MID NEXT WEEK PER HEIGHT FIELDS. THE MAIN
    SOURCE FOR MODEL DISCREPANCY STEMS FROM THE HANDLING OF THE PAC NW
    UPPER IMPULSE THAT EJECTS EARLY NEXT WEEK. DOWNSTREAM FLOW OVER THE
    NORTHERN ATLANTIC DOES BECOME SEMI-BLOCKED PER WAVE MERGER PROCESSES
    WITH EARL REMNANTS. THE PREFERRED SOLUTION AT THIS TIME IS AN
    ECMWF/MEAN GEFS BLEND WHICH SUPPORTS A MORE NORTHERN BIAS TO THE
    HEIGHT FIELD...AND ASSOCIATED STORM TRACK.
    
    SATURDAY...DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL BE IN
    THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE GREAT LAKES WITH A VERY STRONG LL
    PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. BL MIXING WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED NW
    WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH EVEN DEEPER MIXING EXPECTED OVER LK MI
    PER WARM WATER TEMPS. COLD TEMPS ALOFT INDICATED IN AVERAGE BUFR
    PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A STRONG CONVECTIVE RESPONSE OVER LAKE MI WITH
    DELTA T/S APPROACHING 20 C...SFC TO H85. THIS WILL SUPPORT LAKE
    INDUCED CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
    DEVELOP IN A SHEAR-CONNECTIVE ORIENTATION MIXED MODE. CANNOT RULE
    OUT A TS GIVEN PARCEL CURVES WELL ABOVE -20C ALTHOUGH HAVE NOT
    MENTIONED GIVEN LOW PROBS. WAA WILL ENSUE SAT AFTERNOON WITH LAKE
    INDUCED CAPES DIMINISHING QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH HAVE CARRIED LOW CHANCE
    POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON FAR NW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY
    INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SUPPORTING
    DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR
    THINGS TO PROGRESS A LITTLE SLOWER GIVEN CONCERNS ON DOWNSTREAM
    BLOCKING PER EARL INFLUENCE. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN SAT GIVEN MOS
    TRENDS AND EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHTS/THERMAL FIELDS.
    
    SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SFC RIDGING EXPECTED WITH MODERATING
    THERMAL FIELDS. TEMPS WILL WARMER REACH DAY...REACHING AND EXCEEDING
    CLIMO NORMS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS UP SOME.
    AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN PLANS EJECTING TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A WEAK
    BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION BY MID NEXT WEEK...WITH A BACKDOOR TYPE
    COLD FRONT EXPECTED. DID TREND TEMPS TOWARD CLIMO. MASSIVE LL
    NEGATIVE THETA-E SURGE PER THE THIS WEEKEND/S SYSTEM WILL REACH THE
    GOMEX...EFFECTIVELY GUTTING ALL LL MOISTURE FOR THE EASTERN CONUS.
    GIVEN CONCERNS ON A SLOW MOISTURE RETURN...WITH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
    SLOWING...HAVE BIASED DOWN MODEL DEWPOINT FIELDS WHICH SEEM
    EXCESSIVELY HIGH. HENCE...PREFERRED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY IN THE
    EXTENDED...ONLY ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP MENTION WED...MOSTLY FOR
    COLLAB PURPOSES WITH A LL TROUGH IN THE AREA. ATTM...THE PREFERENCE
    IS TOWARD DRY FORECAST GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE EASTERN CONUS
    HIGH...SUPPORTING DRY EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES.
    
    AVIATION...18Z TAFS
    MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
    AT FWA...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE
    20/21Z. LOW MVFR CLOUD DECK AT SBN SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT TO HIGH END
    MVFR OR LOW VFR BY LATER THIS AFTN. ALSO MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AT
    EACH TAF SITE AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE SRN
    GREAT LAKES. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH SBN BTW 4-7Z AND
    FWA BTW 7-10Z. SHOWERS/STORMS AND AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
    LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY SLOT
    BRIEFLY SETTLES IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY MORNING WITH WIND
    VEERING MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS BY 18Z FRI AS
    SFC LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
    
    &&
    
    .IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    IN...NONE.
    MI...NONE.
    OH...NONE.
    LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
         046.
    
         GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
         LMZ043-046.
    
    &&
    
    $$
    
    SHORT TERM...JC
    LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
    AVIATION...JT
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KLOT 030623
    AFDLOT
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
    123 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010
    
    .DISCUSSION...
    1056 PM CDT
    
    IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS FOCUSED ACROSS
    SOUTHERN MISSOURI/ILLINOIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. COLD FRONT
    CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND WILL PUSH
    INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY FRIDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
    QUICKLY DIMINISHING...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS AROUND
    40KTS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT PERSIST
    COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. AXIS OF NEARLY 2 INCH PWATS EXTENDS
    ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS
    THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF DOWNPOURS. SKIES WILL
    CONTINUE TO THIN FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CURRENTLY CLEARING ACROSS
    FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
    
    BEACHLER
    
    //PREV DISCUSSION...
    255 PM CDT
    
    SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOSTLY DIMINISHED THIS
    AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
    AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF SETS IN OVERHEAD. SKIES HAVE
    SCATTERED AND EVEN CLEARED OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL
    ILLINOIS...ALLOWING FOR HEATING OF THE SURFACE AND INSTABILITY TO
    BUILD.
    
    MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY DEALS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
    CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA STRETCHING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
    AND CENTRAL KANSAS. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IN AN AREA OF
    CLEARING...SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES INTENSIFYING AXIS OF HIGHER
    SURFACE BASED CAPES ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ALONG THE
    MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH HIGHER VALUES STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST
    OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. INSTABILITY DECREASES EAST OVER OUR CWA. DEEP
    UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA...EXPECTED TO
    CONTINUE TO SHEAR ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
    THIS EVENING WITH BETTER FORCING TO THE NORTH OVER WISCONSIN. JET
    MAX BEGINS TO RIDE UP THE RIDGE AROUND THE SAME TIME...AND AT LEAST
    BRIEFLY TONIGHT WILL BE IN FAVORABLE QUADRANT OF JET WHICH SHOULD
    HELP TO ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ALL SAID...EXPECT
    STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY JUST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
    BASED ON TIMING OF FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT
    PERHAPS STRONG STORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA BEGINNING
    BETWEEN 21-00Z...PROBABLY CLOSER TO 00Z...SUBSEQUENTLY LOSING SOME OF
    ITS INTENSITY AS IT HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
    AND AWAY FROM THE BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT. STRONG 500MB WINDS ALONG
    THE FRONT WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENHANCING THE THREAT OF
    SEVERE. MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS...WITH A LESSER
    THREAT OF HAIL.
    
    COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE CWA BY 06Z TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
    FRONT...WINDS EXPECTED TO CRANK UP AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
    COOLER. NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO AROUND
    850MB...WITH THE GFS ON THE HIGH END AND SHOWING STRONGER WINDS.
    SEEMS IT WILL NOT BE HARD TO SEE 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS WITH SOME HIGHER
    END GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY.
    SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY AGAIN...HOWEVER THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
    SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY SO SHOULD NOT SEE THE SAME MAGNITUDE WINDS.
    AS MENTIONED...TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FRIDAY
    AND SATURDAY AS CANADIAN AIR MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW.
    TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 70 MARK IN SOME AREAS BUT
    WILL REBOUND BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
    
    BMD
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...
    
    //ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
    
    MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD ARE WITH WESTERLY WINDS
    INCREASING BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 34 KT POSSIBLE BY THE
    LATE AFTERNOON...AND MVFR CONDITIONS ENDING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
    OF HOURS.
    
    RODRIGUEZ
    
    //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
    
    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
    MORNING WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MAIN CLOUD SHIELD
    SLOWLY MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
    INDIANA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION EARLY THIS
    MORNING WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SCATTERED MID TO HIGH LEVEL
    CLOUDS REMAINING. DO ANTICIPATE SOME DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT ONCE
    AGAIN TODAY...BUT WITH CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
    SYSTEM TO HELP FILL IN ANY REMAINING GAPS BY THE AFTERNOON.
    CEILINGS OF AROUND 5KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME BUT EXPECT
    THESE TO EXIT/SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SKIES GOING
    CLEAR AS SYSTEM EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
    THE WEST.
    
    BIG DISCUSSION REMAINS WITH THE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST
    PERIOD...WHICH LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY THROUGHOUT. AS SURFACE
    LOW DEEPENS WHILE DEPARTING TO THE NORTH...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
    BE RATHER TIGHT ALONG WITH SOME COOLER AIR MOVING IN. THIS WILL
    HELP WINDS TO INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 22KT POSSIBLE BY MID
    MORNING...AND THEN GUSTS UP TO 34KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
    HAVE GUSTS DROPPING OFF BY AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT
    ANTICIPATING A DECOUPLING ATMOSPHERE TO HELP OFFSET SOME OF THE
    GUSTS. ALTHOUGH IF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MIXED FURTHER INTO THE
    NIGHT...GUSTS COULD BE OBSERVED LONGER ESPECIALLY WITH FAIRLY
    STRONG WINDS NOT TOO FAR OFF THE GROUND.
    
    RODRIGUEZ
    
    
    //ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
    
    HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ENDING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
    OF HOURS AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
    THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND DIRECTION AND
    MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH SPEED.
    
    RODRIGUEZ
    
    //OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 06Z...
    
    SATURDAY...VFR. MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING
    THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
    
    SUNDAY...VFR.
    
    MONDAY...VFR. MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
    
    TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TS.
    
    WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TS.
    
    RODRIGUEZ
    
    &&
    
    .MARINE...
    243 PM CDT
    
    A LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
    EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO WESTERN IOWA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
    EAST TO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE OF
    THE LOW WILL FALL TO 29.4 INCHES BY THEN. THIS RAPID PRESSURE FALL
    WILL CREATE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A STRONG WIND OVER LAKE
    MICHIGAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO LAKE HURON TO CENTRAL
    KENTUCKY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL GIVE A WEST TO NORTHWEST
    WIND OVER LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL REACH GALE FORCE
    FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING...THE LOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO
    ...JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON. THE LOW HAVING A LOWER PRESSURE AND
    A LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GIVE A STRONG
    WIND UP TO GALES FRIDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM NEW YORK
    TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND A HIGH WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY
    NIGHT. WE EXPECT THE WIND TO DIMINISH IN SPEED SATURDAY NIGHT.
    
    &&
    
    .LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    IL...NONE.
    IN...NONE.
    LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
         LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM
         SATURDAY.
    
         GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
         LMZ868...1 PM FRIDAY TO 5 PM SATURDAY.
    
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
         UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY.
    
         GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...1 PM
         FRIDAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY.
    
    &&
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KIND 030445
    AFDIND
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
    1245 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
    
    .UPDATE...
    THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
    
    &&
    
    .SYNOPSIS...
    
    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
    CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST
    AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF FOR A FEW DAYS...BUT WILL CLIMB
    BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
    BACK INTO THE REGION.
    
    &&
    
    .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
    
    THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE QPF AND POPS AS SCATTERED
    THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVE
    EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. FRO-PA LOOKS TO WAIT UNTIL AFTER
    12Z FRIDAY MORNING.
    
    AN AREA OF CLEARING BETWEEN PREVIOUS SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
    AFTERNOON AND THE APPROACHING STORMS FROM ILLINOIS HAS ALLOWED OUR
    AREA TO DESTABILIZE A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO HAVE CAPE VALUES
    NEAR 1000. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS INCREASED A BIT AS THE SFC
    TEMPS HAVE DECREASED THIS EVENING... SO STORMS MAY BECOME MORE
    ELEVATED INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE STORMS SHOULD STILL HAVE
    GOOD FORCING FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
    PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND SHOULD AFFECT THAT REGION THRU
    MIDNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAS BEEN
    ACCOMPANYING THESE STORMS SINCE LATE AFTERNOON AND SOME SCATTERED
    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE
    INITIAL LINE AND ALONG THE DEW POINT GRADIENT... THEREFORE INCREASED
    QPF TO NEAR 0.7" ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CENTRAL INDIANA AND WENT WITH
    LIKELY POPS THRU 06Z AND DECREASED POPS AND QPF TO THE SOUTHEAST.
    
    KEPT MIN TEMPS AS EARLIER WITH TRENDING TO MOS... BUT MAY NEED TO
    BE ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON TIMING OF DRIER AIR ARRIVAL.
    
    &&
    
    .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
    
    SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND WILL MOST LIKELY
    EXIT THE REGION BY LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COLD AIR
    ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO MORE CLIMO NORMAL LEVELS
    FOR FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SINCE THERE SEEMS TO BE
    GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMP TREND...USED A MATCH
    MOS BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD. RADITIONAL CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK OPTIMUM
    FRI OR SAT NIGHT AS WINDS STAY AOA 5-7 KTS...BUT SKIES WILL BE
    CLEAR. SOME BREEZY NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FOR
    FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY TO A LESSER EXTENT ON SAT. HIGHS THE NEXT FEW
    DAYS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 50.
    
    &&
    
    .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
    
    GFS AND ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT INITIALLY AS A LARGE RIDGE
    IS EXPECTED TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
    VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUING THE DRY WEATHER. GIVEN THE COOL
    850MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD HAVE
    CONTINUED THE TREND OF BELOW NORMAL LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING.
    HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ON MONDAY AS RETURN FLOW SET
    US. HERE WILL START A SLOW WARMING TREND EACH DAY THROUGH MID
    WEEK.
    
    BY WEDNESDAY GFS AND ECMWF PUSH THE WEAK TAIL OF A COLD FRONT
    THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE AS WELL AS
    TIMING AND PROGRESSION THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THIS FEATURE REMAIN
    SUSPECT. AT THIS POINT DO NOT FEEL THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE
    WET...BUT DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE RIDGE CHANCES
    STILL REMAIN. THUS HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND
    THURSDAY FOR THIS LOW PRECIPITATION AMOUNT EVENT.
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/06Z TAFS/...
    
    VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF TRANSIENT RESTRICTIONS IN
    PRECIP/POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL RESTRICTIONS.
    
    COMPLEX FORECAST THIS PKG AS PREFRONTAL CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER
    TONIGHT ACROSS ILLINOIS SOUTHWEST INTO MISSOURI. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
    LESS SUPPORTIVE ACROSS THE SITES...AND CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AS IT
    APPROACHED THE AREA...BUT DECENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT MAY KEEP THESE
    STORMS GOING AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. HUF APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO SEE
    THUNDER TONIGHT AS NEARBY PORTION OF THE COMPLEX LOOKS MOST ROBUST
    ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC...AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS THERE EARLY. AT
    OTHER SITES...UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THUNDER IS GREATER...AND
    HAVE CHOSEN TO HIGHLIGHT WITH VCSH/CB.
    
    TOMORROW...AMPLE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED UNDER UPPER
    TROUGH...AS WELL AS BREEZY POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS UP
    TO 26KT EXPECTED FROM 280-290 DEGREES.
    
    
    &&
    
    .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
    
    
    &&
    
    $$
    
    SYNOPSIS...TDUD/SMF
    NEAR TERM...AB/JAS
    SHORT TERM...SMF
    LONG TERM....JP
    AVIATION...NIELD
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS61 KILN 030542
    AFDILN
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
    142 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
    
    .SYNOPSIS...
    A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
    AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
    A DRY AND MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR THE
    WEEKEND.
    
    &&
    
    .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
    UPDATED ZONES TO ADJUST FIRST PERIOD WORDING. SHOWERS AND
    THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS
    OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FORCING
    REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT SO
    THINK ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN MORE SCATTERED. INSTABILITY IS ALSO
    MARGINAL WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT THUNDERSTORM THREAT. WE MAY END
    UP WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS
    THICKER CLOUDS SHOULD NOT MOVE IN THERE UNTIL LATE. WILL GENERALLY
    RANGE TEMPS FROM LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.
    
    &&
    
    .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
    A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
    THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR
    AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING INCREASING LOW
    LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR EASTERN
    FA IN THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE
    IN COVERAGE ACROSS OUR EAST AND WILL BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY
    CATEGORY. DIURNAL TIMING IS UNFAVORABLE THOUGH AND INSTABILITIES
    REMAIN LIMITED SO JUST EXPECT SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
    TO BE POSSIBLE.
    
    GOOD CAA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY
    NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF ANY WRAP AROUND
    MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
    SO WILL JUST GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH MOSTLY
    CLEAR ELSEWHERE.
    
    WILL NUDGE HIGH TEMPS DOWN A BIT FOR FRIDAY AS CLOUDS/PCPN AND
    THEN DEVELOPING CAA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE
    70S OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY OUR FAR SOUTHEAST. FALL LIKE AIRMASS
    WILL THEN BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. 850 MB TEMPS
    AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO
    UPPER 60S. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT COOL THOUGH AS WE SHOULD HAVE A
    FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY.
    
    THE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP SOME FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT
    RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND
    CLEAR SKIES WILL SET UP FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SHOULD
    LEAD TO TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER
    40S POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS.
    
    &&
    
    .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
    GENERALLY USED BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS WITH SLIGHTLY CLOSER
    LEANING TOWARD GFS. UPPER TROUGH WILL BE QUICK TO LIFT OUT ON
    SUNDAY...ALLOWING RIDGING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH
    EARLY TUESDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY INTO THE 11-13 DEG
    C RANGE BY LATE SUNDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER TEENS MONDAY AND
    TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S BOTH DAYS.
    BOTH MODELS AGREE ON FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE TO ALLOW A FRONTAL
    BOUNDARY TO DROP INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. BOTH MODELS
    SUFFERING FROM RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH
    SOME SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENS...WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD LOW CHANCE
    POPS FOR WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT.
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
    COLD FRONT WILL CROSS TAF SITES EARLY TODAY. INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN
    MAY HAVE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IN IT BUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH
    THE LINE HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY. STARTED WITH A LOWERING OF
    THE CIGS BUT STILL VFR WITH INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN. TRIED TO TEMPO
    THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN A SHORTER TIME FRAME...AROUND
    14Z CVG/LUK/DAY...15Z ILN AND 16-17Z CMH/LCK FOR BEST SHOT
    ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE WARM
    SECTOR BUT WILL LIKELY NOT SEE STRONG GUSTS UNTIL THEY GO WNW
    BEHIND THE FRONT. A STRONG CLEARING SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED BEHIND
    THE FRONT WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. STRATOCU/STRATUS FRACTUS MAY LAST
    INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD NOT CONSTITUTE A CEILING
    PAST AN HOUR OR TWO OF THE END OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING/EARLY
    AFTERNOON.
    
    OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
    
    &&
    
    .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    OH...NONE.
    KY...NONE.
    IN...NONE.
    
    &&
    
    $$
    SYNOPSIS...JGL
    NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL
    SHORT TERM...JGL
    LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL
    AVIATION...FRANKS
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KLMK 030444
    AFDLMK
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
    1244 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
    
    ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
    
    .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)...
    
    WELL-ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS
    BEING DRIVEN EASTWARD BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL
    U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE OHIO
    RIVER AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING A
    FEW HOURS AHEAD OF IT AND FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND IT AS WELL.
    THE LATTER OCCURRING AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LAG
    BEHIND THE FRONT BY ROUGHLY 6 HOURS. EXPECT GUSTY WEST NORTHWESTERLY
    WINDS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES BY IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH
    SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE
    FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW QUICK THE SKIES CLEAR
    UP...BUT WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION COMING IN. FOR
    NOW HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. THE RECORD LONG STREAK OF 105
    DAYS WITH HIGHS 80 OR ABOVE MAY NOT REACH 106 SHOULD THE HIGH AT
    KSDF STAY BELOW...BUT 107 DAYS LOOKS OUT OF THE QUESTION...SEE THE
    LONG TERM FORECAST.
    
    STILL NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
    INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE TOO GREAT. WHILE THE FRONT IS STRONG FOR
    THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE CONVERGENCE ALONG IT IS STILL BEING TEMPERED
    BY THE MAJOR HURRICANE TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOOK FOR SOME BRIEF GUSTY
    WINDS AS THE FRONT WITH THE SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANNOT
    RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE...BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE NOT
    THERE FOR TOO MUCH. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE
    STILL AVERAGING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH THE SREF DATA AND QPF
    FORECAST DOES NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THAT.
    
    .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
    
    FRI NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT...
    
    UPR LEVEL TROF...BEHIND CDFNT...WILL MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH
    VLY FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT. AFTERWARD...ROCKIES/PLAINS RIDGE WILL
    MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EWD TO THE MS VLY BY SUN NIGHT WITH NW FLOW
    GRADUALLY RELAXING ACRS OUR FA DURG THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED CDFNT AND
    POST FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHUD BE WELL E/S OF OUR FA AT THE
    START OF THIS PERIOD. PLAINS SFC RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE EWD...REACHING
    THE LOWER OH VLY SAT NIGHT/SUN. TIL THEN...AN INFLUX OF DRIER/COOLER
    AIR ON NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT WITH
    TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S EARLY SUN MORNING.
    
    MON THRU THU...
    
    THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING TEMPS (TO AROUND 90
    MAXS) AND DEWPOINTS (TO AROUND 60) BY WED AND THU.
    
    UPR LEVEL RIDGE ACRS THE SCNTRL/SERN U.S. WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY WX
    MAKER ACRS THE LOWER OH VLY MON AND TUE. WITH SFC HI PRES ACRS THE
    MID ATLANTIC STATES/APPALACHIANS...RETURN FLOW/SLY COMPONENT OF
    WIND...WILL BOOST TEMPS FROM SUN TO MON AND GRADUALLY BOOST BNDRY
    LAYER MOISTURE AS WELL THRU THE PERIOD.
    
    FOR WED AND THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS A BIT TO THE
    SE...RESULTING IN STRONGER SW FLOW ACRS OUR REGION WHICH WILL
    DECELERATE A WEAKENING CDFNT DROPPING SEWD ACRS THE OH VLY. WITH
    INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST/NORTH EDGE OF
    RIDGE...WILL INSERT LOW CHC POPS BEGINNING WED NIGHT INTO THU AS
    FRONT STALLS ACRS THE LOWER OH VLY.
    
    TEMPS SHUD MAX OUT TUE AND WED FROM THE UPR 80S TO LOWER 90S...SOME
    10 DEGS ABOVE EARLY SEP NORMS.
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)...
    
    AT 04Z A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
    STRETCHED FROM CHICAGO TO THE OZARKS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
    PUSH TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...WITH FROPA AT THE TERMINALS EXPECTED
    IN THE 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS CONVECTIVE
    ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED ENOUGH TO SIMPLY HAVE VCSH WITH CB CLOUD
    TYPE FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
    WILL BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS.
    
    BEHIND THE FRONT THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SKIES WILL BECOME
    MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. WNW WINDS WILL RUSH IN AND WILL LIKELY
    GUST INTO THE 18 TO 23 KNOT RANGE.
    
    WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT.
    
    &&
    
    .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    KY...NONE.
    IN...NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    
    SHORT TERM........RJS
    LONG TERM.........DK/11
    AVIATION..........13
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KPAH 030422 AAA
    AFDPAH
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
    1122 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .UPDATE...
    UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
    
    &&
    
    .DISCUSSION...
    MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST ARE POPS TONIGHT...AND
    TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION RETURNS
    TO POPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
    
    THE BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCHING EASTWARD
    ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY HAS FINALLY DRIED UP. WOULD EXPECT
    THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
    
    12Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL INDICATING THAT THE FRONT WILL RIP
    THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. EXAMINATION OF MODEL
    SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE REGION STILL NOT INDICATING ROBUST FORCING OR
    INSTABILITY TO WARRANT LIKELY OR BETTER POPS WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT.
    FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED CONVECTION...LIKELY EFFECTING THE
    KMVN AREA 03Z-06Z...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 06Z-12Z. AS
    SUCH...LIMITED POPS TO AROUND 50 WITH SCATTERED WORDING. WOULD NOT
    EXPECT MUCH WIDESPREAD QPF...ON AVERAGE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.
    
    THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN OMAHA AND KANSAS CITY...WITH
    DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S BEHIND IT AND GUSTY WINDS OVER 30KTS
    ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA. CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL DATA HAS DEWPOINTS
    NEAR 50 OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
    THIS FORECAST MAY NOT BE DRY OR COOL ENOUGH OVER THE
    WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE
    SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE
    COOL AND VERY DRY...WITH MONDAY WARMING UP TO AROUND 90 IN MOST
    LOCATIONS.
    
    SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. BASICALLY
    THE GFS AND ECWMF HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE
    UPPER RIDGE THEY DEVELOP NEXT WEEK. THEY ARE NOW SUPPRESSING THE
    RIDGE DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND COASTAL REGION. THE CONSENSUS
    IS NOW FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AROUND THE RIDGE
    AND TOWARD THE QUAD STATE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED
    THE 00Z ECMWF FOR POP POSITIONING...HOLDING THEM OFF UNTIL DURING
    THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE
    AND POPS WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...
    A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
    BY 12Z FRIDAY...TURNING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
    UP TO 20 MPH.
    
    &&
    
    .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    KY...NONE.
    MO...NONE.
    IL...NONE.
    IN...NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    
    JAP/RST
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KGRR 030110
    HWOGRR
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
    910 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-031045-
    MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
    MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
    INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
    910 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
    MICHIGAN.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT
    
    A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST
    LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 11 PM THIS EVENING AND 2 AM THIS MORNING. A
    FEW OF THOSE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WEST OF ROUTE 131. DAMAGING WINDS
    AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS.
    THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE BY THE BEACHES ALONG THE SHORE
    TO THE FIRST SET OF DUNES.
    
    SOME OF THE RAIN TONIGHT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY.  RAINFALL RATES IN
    EXCESS OF A HALF INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR
    THUNDERSTORM. THE MAIN STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTHEAST AT
    45 MPH.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY. SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH MAY
    OCCUR INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME DAMAGE TO TREE
    LIMBS AND ANY LOOSE ITEMS OUTSIDE.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    $$
    
    LMZ844>849-031045-
    ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
    HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
    WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
    910 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
    MICHIGAN.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT
    
    WINDS AND WAVES WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT.
    A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT.
    IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE LAKE BETWEEN 10 PM AND
    MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING
    STRIKES PLUS NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN VERY HEAVY WIND DRIVEN RAIN.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    GALE FORCE WINDS ARE PREDICTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
    AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BUILD THE WAVES TO OVER 6 FEET...RESULTING IN
    HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT.
    
    RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    $$
    
    MJS MEADE WDM
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KIWX 022019
    HWOIWX
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
    419 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    INZ003-LMZ043-046-MIZ077-032030-
    LA PORTE-NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-
    MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-BERRIEN-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES...
    BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN
    419 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010 /319 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA...
    SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN
    LAKE MICHIGAN.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT
    
    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
    EXPECTED.
    
    A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT. ALSO THERE IS
    A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY MORNING AND A GALE
    WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
    MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY THROUGH
    SATURDAY EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
    SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ACROSS BERRIEN AND
    LAPORTE COUNTIES.
    
    &&
    
    STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
    CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX
    
    $$
    
    INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
    015-016-024-025-032030-
    ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI-
    MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-
    WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-CASS MI-
    ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-
    PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...
    GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...
    AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...
    PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE...
    COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO...
    BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER...
    HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION...
    HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
    STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
    ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
    PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
    419 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010 /319 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
    NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT
    
    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
    EXPECTED.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
    
    &&
    
    STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
    CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KLOT 030355
    HWOLOT
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
    1055 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
    040400-
    WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
    DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
    IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
    1055 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 /1155 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
    NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.
    
    .DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.
    
      WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:
    
      THUNDERSTORMS...THE STRONGEST MAY PRODUCE:
       CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
       LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
       WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
    
      AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:
    
      NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH 1 AM CDT.
    
      DISCUSSION:
    
      A POTENT COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST
      ILLINOIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DEEP LAYER
      SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 50KTS AND IS FAIRLY UNIFORM FROM THE
      WEST...AND VEERING NORTHWEST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS ALONG
      AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
      REMAINS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS.
    
      IN ADDITION PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF NEARLY 2 INCHES EXTENDS
      ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS
      THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF DOWNPOURS.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
    
    THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE INDIANA
    SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT.
    
    &&
    
    COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
    WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO
    
    $$
    
    LMZ740>745-040400-
    WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
    WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
    NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
    GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
    1055 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE
    WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
    MICHIGAN.
    
    .DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.
    
    WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WITH
    STRONG WINDS PRODUCING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT
    ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
    
    WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE FRIDAY AND
    FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY...BUT
    WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HIGH WAVES AND HAZARDOUS
    CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ESPECIALLY FOR THE INDIANA NEARSHORE
    WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
    
    &&
    
    COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
    WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO
    
    $$
    
    LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
    870-872-874-876-878-040400-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
    OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
    OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
    MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
    FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
    MID LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
    MID LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
    MID LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
    MID LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
    TO MID LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
    OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
    OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
    OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
    OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
    OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
    LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
    LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
    MID LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
    LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
    LAKE-
    LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
    MID LAKE-
    1055 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE
    MICHIGAN.
    
    .DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT.
    
    WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
    
    GALE FORCE WINDS TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AND
    CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
    
    &&
    
    COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
    WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO
    
    $$
    
    BEACHLER
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KIND 030004
    HWOIND
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
    804 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-040015-
    CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
    BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
    PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
    JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
    DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
    804 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
    
    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
    SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SEVERE
    WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
    
    THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AGAIN...NONE OF
    THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE...BUT ISOLATED LIGHTNING
    STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
    
    &&
    
    MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND
    CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL
    LOWERCASE)
    
    $$
    AB/JAS
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS41 KILN 022118
    HWOILN
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
    518 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
    051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-032130-
    WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
    SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-
    PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-
    SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-
    FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-
    FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN-
    HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO-
    518 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL
    INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN
    KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL
    OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KLMK 021902
    HWOLMK
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
    302 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
    070>078-081-082-031000-
    ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
    CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
    BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
    JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
    SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
    FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
    MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
    GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
    TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
    ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
    CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
    302 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010 /202 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
    INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
    
    .DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
    
    SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST THIS
    EVENING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
    OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
    OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE PRIMARY THREAT
    WILL BE OCCASIONAL BUT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
    
    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING SOUTH AND
    EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES THROUGH THE
    REGION. LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
    
    $$
    
    RJS
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KPAH 022050
    HWOPAH
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
    350 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
    100-107>112-114-031000-
    JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
    WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
    HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
    WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
    LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
    UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
    MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
    RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
    350 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
    ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
    MISSOURI.
    
    .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
    
    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
    THROUGH THE QUAD STATE TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL ENTER THE AREA
    AROUND 10 PM AND PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA
    THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
    PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH OVER SOUTHEAST
    MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS EVENING. THE STORMS ARE
    EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AND WEAKEN AS THEY SPREAD
    SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE QUAD STATE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
    WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS WEST
    KENTUCKY. ANY STORMS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
    
    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA
    WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
    
    $$
    
    DRS
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KARX 022005
    AFDARX
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
    305 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
    
    MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...SHRA CHANCES TONIGHT/FRI...
    WINDS FRI...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
    
    18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF LK WINNIPEG
    WITH A BROAD PRESSURE TROUGH SOUTH INTO WI AND EASTERN IA. SFC OBS
    PLACED THE COLD FRONT NEAR A KDLH-KMSP-KDSM LINE...MAKING STEADY
    PROGRESS EAST. WV IMAGERY DEPICTED A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE
    ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN SD/NORTHERN NEB. BROAD
    AREA OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN IA IN THE FORCING/
    LIFT AHEAD OF THE SD/NEB SHORTWAVE. LEADING EDGE OF THIS PRECIP
    MOVING INTO THE WEST END OF THE FCST AREA AS OF 18Z. MORE SHRA/TSRA
    OVER EASTERN ND/ NORTHWEST MN WITH DEEP CONVERGENCE/LIFT UNDER THE
    COLD CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EAST OF THE MN/IA SHRA...MUCH OF
    WI/EASTERN IA CATCHING A PERIOD OF PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
    TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 70S-LOWER 80S.
    
    NO BIG ERRORS NOTED WITH 02.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS...THOUGH
    DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS AGAIN NOTED ON SHORTWAVE DETAILS IN THE
    NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. SHORT-TERM SOLUTIONS QUITE SIMILAR AS THE
    STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT/FRI THEN
    RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN BY SUN/SUN NIGHT. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT
    02.12Z SHOWED MODEL RUNS OF 31.12Z AND 01.12Z VERIFIED WELL ACROSS
    NOAM WITH BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TO ECMWF. THRU 36HRS MODELS
    CONVERGING TO A TIGHT CONSENSUS FAVORING THE FASTER OF EARLIER
    SOLUTIONS AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GFS WITH THE BETTER
    RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AT 36HRS. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS GOOD THRU
    60HRS...TRENDING TOWARD A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS AS THE
    PATTERN SLOWLY PROGRESSES AND THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO OR/WA. FOR
    60-84HRS THE MODEL CONSENSUS TREND IS TOWARD THE FASTER OF THE
    EARLIER SOLUTIONS AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
    ROCKIES. BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TO ECMWF AT 60 AND 84HRS.
    CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 18Z SHOWED MODELS GOOD WITH THE LK
    WINNIPEG SFC LOW...BUT GENERALLY A BIT FAST/TOO FAR EAST WITH THE
    COLD FRONT ACROSS MN/IA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PER WV IMAGERY...
    MODELS GENERALLY APPEAR A BIT FAST WITH THE SD/NEB SHORTWAVE AS
    WELL...SLOWER NAM LOOKS A BIT BETTER WITH THE SHORTWAVE. ECMWF
    APPEARED BEST WITH THE 12Z-18Z PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MODELS
    TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND
    NO PREFERRED DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUN...FAVORED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE
    CONSENSUS. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE ON THE GOOD SIDE THIS CYCLE.
    
    FOR THE SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH/
    ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
    DISTANCE-SPEED TOOL APPLIED TO TRAILING EDGE OF MN/IA PRECIP AREA
    PLACES MOST OF IT EAST OF ALL BUT THE FAR EAST SIDE OF THE FCST AREA
    BY 00Z. SOUTHEAST ND/WEST CENTRAL MN CONVECTION ROTATES SOUTHEAST
    WITH THE COLD CORE OF THE TROUGH AND DEEP CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE.
    INSTABILITY/TSRA WITH THIS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT
    SCT SHRA EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA WITH
    THE TROUGH AXIS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHRA CHANCE ACROSS
    THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA THRU TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD...WHILE DRIER
    AIR BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUES WRAPS IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND
    ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. BEHIND THE TROUGH
    AXIS...925-500MB FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY OVER THE AREA FRI...
    WITH SOME 925-700MB MOISTURE WRAPPING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
    CENTRAL/EASTERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
    DEEP CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING STEEP LAPSE
    RATES AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO 700MB. LIMITED -SHRA CHANCE IN
    THE MORNING TO NORTHEAST OF I-94...THEN OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE
    FCST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE 925-700MB MOISTURE ROTATES BY.
    PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA FRI BEHIND THE
    LOW...WITH 850MB WINDS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE ON FRI. MODEL SOUNDINGS
    OVER THE WEST END OF THE FCST AREA INDICATE POTENTIAL MIXING TO
    850MB FRI AFTERNOON...IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY.
    STRONGER 850MB COLD ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE
    TONIGHT/FRI MORNING AND IS EAST INTO WI BY THE AFTERNOON. MAY YET
    NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WIND PRONE HIGHER TERRAIN/OPEN COUNTRY
    AREAS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN FOR A PORTION OF FRI...BUT WILL
    DEFER TO MID CREW WITH HOPEFULLY A BETTER HANDLE ON WHERE THE WEST
    EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON FRI. MAY YET NEED A SMALL SHRA CHANCE
    EARLY EVENING OVER THE EAST END OF THE FCST AREA...BUT LEFT THIS DRY
    AS DEEPER 925-700MB APPEARS TO BE EXITING EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z
    SAT. QUIETER/COOLER WEATHER FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT AS THE TROUGH
    EXITS EAST AND HGTS RISE AHEAD OF RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
    NORTHWEST FLOW EAST OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
    PLAINS ADVECTS A COOL...DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR
    SAT/SUN. SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT...FOR WHAT
    SHOULD BE CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...PERHAPS EVEN SOME
    UPPER 30S IN USUAL COLD AREAS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94. TEMPS BEGIN
    TO WARM SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST...THE NEXT LOW
    DEEPENS OVER SD/NEB AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA.
    
    NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT GENERALLY
    SIMILAR AND LOOK WELL TRENDED. FRI WILL FEEL LIKE FALL WITH THE
    BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST
    LOCATIONS.
    
    .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
    
    02.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF/UKMET ALL IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON MON.
    MODEL TREND ON MONDAY FAVORS STRONGER/MORE PROGRESSIVE OF EARLIER
    RUNS AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH/ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN
    PLAINS. THE STRONGER TREND AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE REGION
    CONTINUES ON TUE...WITH ECMWF SHOWING A BIT BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
    CONSISTENCY THAN THE OTHERS. TREND IS SLOWER/STRONGER WITH THIS
    TROUGH/ENERGY INTO EASTERN NOAM WED/THU...MORE IN LINE WITH EARLIER
    ECMWF RUNS. HOWEVER...ECMWF APPEARS FASTER AMONG MODEL/ENSEMBLE
    CONSENSUS WITH THE NEXT TROUGHING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TUE-THU.
    GFS WITH THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
    TUE-THU. EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT...MODEL SOLUTIONS MORE
    SIMILAR THAN NORMAL WITH THE SFC LOW STRENGTHS/POSITIONS IN THE
    PLAINS MON-THU. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT WEATHER OUTCOMES FOR
    THE AREA DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OR HOW FAST MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTH
    AHEAD OF THESE NEXT LOWS/TROUGHS INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.
    WITH NO MODEL FAVORITE THIS CYCLE AND WEATHER OUTCOME DEPENDENT ON
    SMALLER SCALE FEATURES/TIMING...FAVORED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS
    THIS CYCLE. LONG-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE THIS CYCLE. WARM FRONT
    RETURNS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA MON...AHEAD OF THE NEXT RATHER STRONG
    LOW TO LIFT FROM SD/NEB TO NORTHWEST MN. GFS MORE ROBUST WITH 850MB
    MOISTURE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO/OVER THIS FRONT. EITHER WAY...WARM
    FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
    LIFT AND SOME AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WARRANTS AT LEAST A SMALL SHRA/TSRA
    CHANCE FOR MON. WITH PRESENT MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING...SFC-MID LEVEL
    TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT...INTO WHAT
    SHOULD BE A MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT. LOWERED SHRA/TSRA
    CHANCES FOR TUE THRU WED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIRMASS
    SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH MODEL SHOWING SOME
    RUN-TO-RUN TIMING/DETAIL DIFFERENCES BY TUE/WED...NOT ENOUGH
    CONFIDENCE TO GO COMPLETELY DRY AGAINST HPC/MODEL CONSENSUS 30-40
    PERCENT RAIN CHANCES THESE PERIODS. NEXT LOW DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL
    PLAINS THU...WITH A RESURGENCE OF LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMICS AND
    MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AGAIN TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH
    ECMWF THE FASTER/MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM. 30 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA
    CHANCE ON THU PER HPC GUIDANCE REASONABLE FOR NOW. FAVORED A BLEND
    OF GFS MEX/ENSEMBLE MOS AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS/LOWS THRU THE
    PERIOD...THOUGH IF ONE OR MORE OF THE DAYS WOULD END UP MORE
    OVERCAST/RAINY GRID FCST HIGHS COULD BE 5F TO 10F TOO WARM.
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
    
    A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING GUSTY
    NORTHWEST WINDS AND SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS
    EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING...
    PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
    WISCONSIN. SOME STRATUS WILL BE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUD
    BASES AROUND 3KFT. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
    KTS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING....BEFORE SURFACE
    HEATING DECREASES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE
    AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN ONTARIO...AND
    HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL PRODUCE
    GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
    NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
    SHOWING A STATUS DECK MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IMPACTING THE
    TAF SITES LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON....AND MAY
    PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIGS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ON NORTHWEST FLOW
    ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
    AFTERNOON.
    
    &&
    
    .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    WI...NONE.
    MN...NONE.
    IA...NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    
    SHORT/LONG TERM...RRS
    AVIATION..........WETENKAMP
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KFSD 030042
    AFDFSD
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
    742 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .DISCUSSION...
    ADJUSTED GRIDS EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE SSWRD PUSH TO ISOLD
    SHRA/TSRA INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT TREND IN HAVING THESE VANISH BY
    03Z ALONG WITH DIURNAL CYCLE LOOKS GOOD. ADVY ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
    00Z WITH WNDS ALREADY WORKING ON DECOUPLING IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND
    THIS AS WELL GRADUAL CLEARING WL BE FEATURE OF NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACRS
    THE AREA...WITH GRADIENT FAVORING MORE OF A STEADY NR 10 KTS
    OVERNIGHT. WL PROBABLY TWEEK TRENDS SOMEWHAT...BUT OVERALL FCST
    LOOKS GOOD.  /CHAPMAN
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...
    VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST THRU 00Z SAT. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
    N OF INTERSTATE 90 WL QUICKLY DIMINISH THRU 01Z-02Z...AND WINDS
    GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS WL EASE AS WELL. WNDS SHUD RECOUPLE BY MID
    MORNING FRI AND GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KTS PSBL MAINLY ALG/E OF I29. SCT
    VFR CU EXPECTED BY 18Z. /CHAPMAN
    
    &&
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION...
    SCT SHWRS CONT TO DEVELOP INTO NWRN PART OF FCST AREA AND THEY SHUD
    CONT TO DVLP AND SPREAD ESEWD FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN. THO
    STRONGEST AND MOST WDSPRD ACTVTY IS TO THE N...SCT SHWRS W/ 50 PCT
    POP FAR NERN FCST AREA ALONG WITH ISOLD TSTMS HON/FSD/SPW AND
    NORTHEAST LOOKS GOOD. THIS IS ALL TO 00Z WHICH IS THE START OF TNGT
    PERIOD. WILL DECREASE SHOWER MENTION TO THE ENE AFT 00Z AND CUT
    TSTMS FOR ERY THIS EVE. ISOLD SHWRS CUD LINGER A LTL PAST 03Z FAR
    NERN/ECNTRL FCST AREA AS UPPER WV PASSES BY...OTRW SKIES SHOULD BE
    GOING PRETTY CLEAR AFTER THAT TIME WITH DRIER AIR MOVNG IN AND
    HEATING TURNED OFF.
    
    WIND ADVY FOR WRN FORECAST AREA HAS BECOME VALID. WINDS ARE NOT
    QUITE THERE YET BUT SHOULD INCREASE SOME MORE THRU 4PM AS RUC SHOWS
    BL WINDS STILL INCREASING. WILL THEREFORE KEEP AS IS TO 7 PM. WINDS
    WILL DECREASE STEADILY ERY THIS EVE AND SETTLE DOWN TO AROUND 10 MPH
    FOR THE NIGHT A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET. GUIDANCE LOW TEMPS LOOK
    GENERALLY OK...COOL BUT NOT AS COOL AS IT COULD BE WITHOUT THE
    LINGERING SFC AND LOW LEVEL WINDS. / WILLIAMS
    
    THE WEEKEND CONTS TO LOOK PLEASANT AND DRY. SAT WL REMAIN COOL AND
    BREEZY WHILE SUNDAY WL SEE LESS WIND AND WARMER TEMPS CLOSER TO
    NORM. HIGH TEMPS ON SAT WILL BE A FEW DEG EITHER SIDE OF 70 MOST
    PLACES. COOLEST MORN WL BE SAT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
    LOWS WL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
    
    WRMFNT WL LIFT N OF CWA LATE SUN NITE. CUD SEE AN ISOLD TRW ACRS N
    SUN NITE ON NOSE OF WAA...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO WL LEAVE DRY.
    CDFNT WL PUSH EWD ACRS CWA MON INTO MON EVE. NOT SURE IF ANY STORMS
    WL GET GOING AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY COMPLETELY CAP CWA. SO FOR
    THAT REASON WL ONLY KEEP 20 TO 30% POPS IN FCST WITH BEST CHC ACRS
    ERN CWA MON AFTN AND EVE JUST AHEAD OF FNT. SHUD WARM UP NICELY
    AHEAD OF THIS FNT ON MON WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. PLENTY OF MIXING
    BEHIND FNT WL ALSO KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO NORM AND ALSO BREEZY TO WINDY.
    
    TUES SHUD BE DRY AND PLEASANT ACRS CWA AS FNT STALLS STALLS ACRS NEB
    AND SRN IA. THIS FNT WL BEGIN TO LIFT N TUES NITE AND PERSIST ACRS
    CWA INTO THU. MAJOR TROF DIGGING ACRS WRN US WL BRING PLENTY OF LLM
    N INTO CWA WHICH CUD PRODUCE FAIRLY WDSPRD TRW N OF BNDRY WED NITE
    INTO THU.
    
    &&
    
    .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    SD...NONE.
    MN...NONE.
    IA...NONE.
    NE...NONE.
    
    &&
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KDMX 030440 AAA
    AFDDMX
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
    1140 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    ...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
    
    .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
    SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED ALONG THE 700MB TEMP GRADIENT
    BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
    PASS THROUGH IOWA AROUND 00Z-03Z. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES...IT
    SHOULD MARK THE END OF THE RAIN AND ALLOW THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW TO
    FILTER INTO THE STATE. HOWEVER...A SECOND MINOR TROUGH IS IN CLOSE
    PURSUIT OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND MAY BRING SHOWERS INTO THE
    NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES OF OUR CWA THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT
    TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT...BUT INVERSION SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED ENOUGH TO
    KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. MIN TEMPS
    WERE A BLEND OF GFS AND MOS GUIDANCE AS TEMPS DROP TO THE LOW TO MID
    50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
    
    .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
    QUIET BEGINNING TO THE MID/LONG RANGE AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS
    CONCERNED. HOWEVER FALL AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
    DROPPING TO JUST BELOW 10C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER
    CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO
    AROUND 70. CAA AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHT SFC PRES GRADIENT
    SHOULD MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY FRIDAY. BUFKIT VALUES SUGGEST MOMENTUM
    TRANSFER OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT COULD SEND SOME SITES INTO WIND
    ADVISORY CRITERIA MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WINDIEST CONDITIONS
    WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW AS WELL. HIGH
    PRESSURE TO BECOME CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CWA BY FRIDAY
    NIGHT...WITH A COOL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL COOL OFF
    QUICKLY AND BE FAIRLY CHILLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE STATE.
    OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST SATURDAY...WITH
    SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW KICKING ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAY
    SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP IN WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AREA
    ALOFT. HOWEVER AIRMASS QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS NEVER REALLY MOISTEN
    UP MUCH. IF A BIT MORE MOISTURE EXPECTED COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED
    PRECIPITATION DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AND SPREAD
    NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
    NOW DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE.
    
    LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN US BY LATE IN THE
    WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...SETTING UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
    THE REGION. WARM FRONT TO PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
    NIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH LATER MONDAY
    INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
    THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
    TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS HUNG UP ACROSS THE
    SOUTHERN CWA. MODELS IN SOME DISAGREEMENT IF IT STALLS OUT ACROSS
    SRN IA OR NRN MO...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS IN FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
    IN THE PLACEMENT/TIMING. OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW
    THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD LATER WEDNESDAY INTO
    THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS
    IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...JUST DIFFERENCES IN THE
    TIMING/PLACEMENT. THEREFORE DID KEEP POPS IN THE MID/HIGHER CHANCE
    CATEGORY TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...
    03/06Z...CLEAR SKIES AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
    OVERNIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING FRIDAY
    AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KTS ARE
    ANTICIPATED WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS NEAR KMCW AND KALO. POSSIBLE AN
    AFTERNOON SHOWER OR NEAR MVFR CIGS WILL ROTATE AROUND INTO THESE TWO
    SITES AS WELL. CONFIDENCE THIS WILL OCCUR IS LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE
    FROM TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. THE WIND WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TOWARD
    00Z.
    
    &&
    
    .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
    
    &&
    
    $$
    
    SHORT TERM...HINSBERGER
    LONG TERM...BEERENDS
    AVIATION...DONAVON
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KDVN 022006
    AFDDVN
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
    306 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .SYNOPSIS...
    COLD FRONT AT 19Z EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM JUST WEST OF LSE THROUGH ALO
    TO NEAR OTM. BEHIND THIS FRONT...AREA RADARS INDICATED SCATTERED AND
    MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WIDESPREAD IN A ROUGHLY 40 MILE WIDE AXIS
    WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
    RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER FAR NORTHEAST IOWA...APPEARING ALONG THE
    EDGE OF A 8 DEG C CAP AT H7 AND WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
    SURFACE FRONT HAS REACHED THE AIRMASS WITH CAPES OF 1500 TO 2000
    J/KG THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN IA AND NW IL. MESOANALYSIS
    TRENDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS INDICATED THIS THERMAL RIDGE
    ALOFT...THAT HAS SO FAR SUPPRESSED CONVECTION...FLATTENING AND
    GETTING NUDGED EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
    TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE MO RIVER. WELL BEHIND THE
    FRONT...TEMPERATURES IN NW IA WERE IN THE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
    50S...WHILE OUT AHEAD 70S TO LOWER 80S WERE COMMON IN THE LOCAL AREA
    WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70.
    
    &&
    
    .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
    INITIAL CONCERN IS EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW
    HOURS...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO TEMPERATURES AS CANADIAN AIRMASS
    FLOODS INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE FRONT...AND STRONGER MID
    LEVEL FORCING AND MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OUT WEST REACHES THE BETTER
    INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPED OVER FORECAST AREA TODAY...WILL EXPECT
    MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
    SO FAR...CELLS HAVE BEEN RATHER ISOLATED...BUT MAY SEE A MORE LINEAR
    MODE DEVELOP WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED
    CELLS...SUCH AS THOSE RECENTLY FORMING CLOSER TO THE GREATER
    INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA MAY ALSO HAVE A
    MARGINAL HAIL THREAT. RATHER FAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS SHOULD PRECLUDE
    A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. BASED ON CURRENT TIMING...THE BULK OF THE
    STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MS RIVER BY 00Z AND HAVE LOW POPS THERE
    CONFINED TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING.
    
    COLD ADVECTION W-NW WINDS COMMENCE TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AND
    KEPT HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...CONSISTENT WITH
    MIXING TO AT LEAST H8. WILL HAVE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON
    SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING UPPER FLOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST.
    OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE AND INCOMING DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE REST OF
    THE AREA DRY. FOR TONIGHT...STAYED CLOSER TO GUIDANCE BLEND IN THE
    50S...AS SUPPORTED BY INCOMING DEWPOINTS AND UPSTREAM LOWS THIS
    MORNING.
    ..SHEETS..
    
    .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
    REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED IN STRONG NW FLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE
    UPPER TROF SETS UP OVER THE NERN U.S.  THE ECMWF IS STILL BRINGING
    SOME CHILLY H8 TEMPS INTO THE REGION WITH THE +3C H8 ISOTHERM VERY
    CLOSE TO THE NERN CWFA SATURDAY MORNING.  WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
    TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE FOR SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER
    40S AND HIGHS MID 60S TO MID 70S.  FOR SUNDAY EVEN THOUGH THE H8
    THERMAL TROF WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE
    MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE MORNING...SO DROPPED MINS DOWN SIMILAR
    TO SATURDAYS EXPECTED LOWS. RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE AREA SO
    TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL SUNDAY.
    
    THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT
    WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM
    SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WARM MOIST AIR TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF
    THE SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.  WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD
    ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
    WITH MODELS STILL POINTING TOWARD SOME WAA INDUCED ELEVATED
    SHRA/TSA.  MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE
    WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE CWFA AND STRONG SLY FLOW IN PLACE
    OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.  WITH GOOD MIXING EXPECTED TEMPS SHOULD
    CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S.  TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS
    PROGGED MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE
    CWFA AS ANOTHER UPPER TROF DIGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S.  A RENEWED
    SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROF WILL INTERACT WITH
    THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR MUCH
    OF THE WEEK.  ..DLF..
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...
    CONDITIONS HAD IMPROVED TO VFR EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL
    TERMINALS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA IS
    EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
    THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS
    MAY CONTINUE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE
    EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE WITH CLEARING
    SKIES WEST WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
    THEN INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS POSSIBLE
    AFTER 15Z.
    ..SHEETS..
    &&
    
    .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    IA...NONE.
    IL...NONE.
    MO...NONE.
    
    &&
    
    $$
    
    SHEETS/DLF
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KOAX 022002
    AFDOAX
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
    302 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
    
    MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND COOLER/DRIER
    CONDITIONS MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  COLD FRONT IS WELL
    SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...WITH GUSTY NWRLY WINDS BRINGING IN DRIER
    AIRMASS.  AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...BUT
    THINK MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN BY 00Z AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
    TO PUSH THROUGH THE PLAINS.  DEWPOINTS AT 19Z WERE FALLING INTO THE
    40S IN CNTRL NEB...AND EXPECT SIMILAR FALLING DEWPOINTS ACROSS NEB
    INTO WRN IA OVERNIGHT.  TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL WELL INTO THE
    50S...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS STILL HOVERING
    AROUND 10 KT.
    
    .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
    
    EXPECT DRY OR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
    FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
    BUILD EWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. HIGHS IN OUR
    AREA SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY AFTN...THEN 75
    TO 80 ON SATURDAY. MODELS HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT PCPN NORTH
    OF WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE LIFTING NWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
    BUT FOR NOW WE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 80S
    SUNDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WINDS.
    
    TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY IS PROBLEMATIC. BRISK SOUTH OR
    SOUTHWEST WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF FRONT SUGGEST HIGHS IN
    UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. 00Z GFS MOS LOOKS BETTER TODAY THAN IT DID
    YESTERDAY.
    
    THE ECMWF...GFS AND GEM ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
    PATTERN INTO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE AREA NOW
    WILL MOVE EWD AS RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS INTO SATURDAY. THE
    RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT AND THEN PUSH OUT INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY.
    THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN OUR AREA TURNS FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
    BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE 12Z GFS
    WAS A LITTLE STRONGER AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF IN
    REGARDS TO MOVING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WEAK CLOSED LOW INTO THE
    NRN PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY. WE GENERALLY REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
    ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK AS A RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SERN U.S. AND A
    TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT
    FAR OUT...BUT THOSE ARE NOT CONSIDERED SIGNIFICANT FOR OUR AREA.
    IT LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY
    MOVE UP INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...
    TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
    
    18Z TAFS
    
    SKY CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...AND EXPECT CIGS
    TO LIFT/SCATTER THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  NWRLY WINDS
    WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT GUSTS TO RETURN
    BY LATE MORNING.
    
    &&
    
    .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    NE...NONE.
    IA...NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    
    SHORT TERM...MAYES
    LONG TERM....MILLER
    AVIATION...MAYES
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KARX 030243
    HWOARX
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
    940 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034-
    041>044-053>055-061-031000-
    ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE-
    FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE-
    MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON-
    WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA-
    940 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
    MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
    WISCONSIN.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS
    REACHING 40 MPH.
    
    THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM LABOR DAY THROUGH
    WEDNESDAY.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT. WIND REPORTS ON
    FRIDAY WOULD BE APPRECIATED.
    
    .EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION...
    
    NO CALL IS SCHEDULED.
    
    $$
    
    WETENKAMP/RIECK
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KFSD 021622
    HWOFSD
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
    1120 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2010
    
    SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
    IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-031200-
    AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
    CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
    DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
    IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
    LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
    OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
    SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
    1120 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
    SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
    
    .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
    
    THUNDERSTORMS...
    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY SCATTERED SHOWERS
    REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON NORTHEAST OF A HURON TO SIOUX FALLS
    TO STORM LAKE IOWA LINE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT
    ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50
    MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
    
    WIND AND FOG...
    WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
    POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM CHAMBERLAIN AND GREGORY EAST INTO
    PARTS OF THE  JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE
    THIS EVENING.
    
    FIRE DANGER...
    THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL REACH HIGH TO VERY HIGH THIS
    AFTERNOON IN GREGORY COUNTY.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
    
    &&
    
    FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
    WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
    WEATHER OUTLOOK.
    
    $$
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KDMX 030227
    HWODMX
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
    927 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086-
    092>097-040230-
    EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO-
    POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN-
    WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE-
    BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER-
    POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION-
    CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE-
    DAVIS-
    927 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FRIDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT
    25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED.
    
    CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN CENTRAL IOWA MONDAY THROUGH
    WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
    
    $$
    
    DONAVON
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KDVN 020947
    HWODVN
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
    447 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
    009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-031000-
    BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON-
    CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-
    HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL-
    WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON-
    WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-
    447 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
    ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST
    CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST
    MISSOURI.
    
    .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
    
    A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY...PROVIDING
    ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE
    REGION BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES...LIMITING INSTABILITY FOR STORMS.
    HOWEVER...IF THE SUN CAN COME OUT AND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
    80S...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY. THE STORM
    PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
    THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FOR MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. IF STRONG STORMS
    DO FORM...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.
    
    AFTER THE FRONT MOVES PAST THIS EVENING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER
    AIR WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
    
    AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST
    FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
    WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR
    SEVERE WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY.
    
    $$
    
    ERVIN/HAASE
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KOAX 022209
    HWOOAX
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
    509 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
    042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>090-092-031215-
    MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
    PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
    STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
    SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
    JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-PAWNEE-
    509 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
    SOUTHWEST IOWA.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
    
    THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LABOR DAY AFTERNOON AS A
    COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS RISK OF
    THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
    AS THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL STALL NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER AND THEN
    ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.
    
    $$
    
    NEZ091-093-031215-
    NEMAHA-RICHARDSON-
    509 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
    NEBRASKA.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
    
    MINOR FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM
    AROUND BROWNVILLE DOWNSTREAM THROUGH RULO.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
    
    THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
    FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
    CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPEARS IT
    WILL STALL NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER AND THEN ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTH
    AS A WARM FRONT.
    
    MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM
    BROWNVILLE DOWNSTREAM TO RULO INTO LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.
    
    $$
    
    CHERMOK
    
    
    

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  • FXUS63 KEAX 030541
    AFDEAX
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
    1240 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010
    
    ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
    
    .DISCUSSION...
    
    SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)...
    
    INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ALOFT WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
    CONTINUE TO PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT PLOWING INTO
    EASTERN/CENTRAL MO. ISOLATED STORM SOUTH OF HARRISONVILLE AND
    ELONGATED PLUME OF STRATIFORM RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDER TO ITS NORTH
    WILL EXIT THE KANSAS CITY AREA JUST AFTER 7 PM...AND THE REMAINDER
    OF THE AREA BEFORE 9 PM. QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE LIGHT
    PRECIPITATION REGION ACROSS THE KANSAS CITY AREA...SO FOLKS SHOULD
    PLAN ACCORDINGLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
    
    OTHERWISE...LINGERING MID CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR WITH THE PASSAGE
    OF THE UPPER TROUGH THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND A
    SHARPLY DRIER AIRMASS EXCHANGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
    SHOULD FALL WELL INTO THE 50S TONIGHT...SAVED ONLY BY NORTHWEST
    WINDS THAT WILL LOSE THEIR GUSTY CHARACTER AFTER SUNSET BUT REMAIN
    WELL MIXED OVERNIGHT. MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 40S FOR
    FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A GRADUAL MODERATION OCCURS AS HIGH PRESSURE
    SHIFTS EAST. WITH THE CHILLY LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT...EXPECT STEAM FOG
    TO BECOME PREVALENT AND POTENTIALLY DENSE ACROSS AREA LAKES AND
    RIVERS WHERE THE WATER TO AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL BE QUITE
    LARGE.
    
    BOOKBINDER
    
    
    MEDIUM RANGE (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
    
    PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WRN
    HEMISPHERE THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...FEATURING
    PREDOMINANT TROUGHING THROUGH THE WRN CONUS (NEGATIVE HEIGHT
    ANOMALIES AT LEAST 1-2 NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW AVERAGE)
    AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/SERN
    CONUS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENTIRE FLOW EVOLUTION
    THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTIES HINGING THE
    EXACT DEPTH AND SPEED OF THE LEAD WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE NRN
    PLAINS/GREAT LAKES. HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND
    MARKEDLY DEEPER 12Z GFS (VERSUS 00Z ECMWF)...WHICH HAS BETTER
    SUPPORT FROM A VAST MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.
    
    THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL KEEP THE REGION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
    OF PERSISTENT NRN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
    ATTEMPTING TO PUSH SOUTH INTO MISSOURI...YET LIKELY STALLING AND
    WASHING OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADVERTISED TEMPERATURES
    ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH A PREFERENCE TOWARDS
    THE WARMEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY CONVECTIVE
    INFLUENCES AND RESIDUAL DAYTIME CLOUD COVER WOULD BE DETRIMENTAL TO
    TEMPERATURES ON ANY GIVEN DAY (MORE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
    PERIOD). GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE FINAL DAYS OF THE LONG HOLIDAY
    WEEKEND WILL BE DRY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
    THROUGH THE WEEK...AS INCREASING FLOW AMPLITUDE ACROSS THE PLAINS
    WILL BEGIN TO TAP A BETTER SUBTROPICAL FEED AND ASSUMED SUBTLE WAVES
    EJECTING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
    
    21
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...
    
    FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM
    DEVELOPING TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN EXPECTED TO KEEP SKIES
    CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
    
    PC
    
    &&
    
    .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    MO...NONE.
    KS...NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KLSX 030500
    AFDLSX
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
    1200 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010
    
    .DISCUSSION...
    /355 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TSRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
    THRU THE EVE HOURS.
    
    TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROF AND ARE EXPECTED TO FILL
    IN AS THE LINE MOVE SEWD. EXPECT TSRA TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY FRI
    MORNING WITH CLEARING BEHIND THE LINE WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO
    THE AREA.
    
    MDLS AGREE WELL WITH LARGE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WITH
    DRY AND COOL AIR IN PLACE. MDLS PROG 8 TO 10C 850MB TEMPS ACROSS THE
    AREA ON SAT...WHICH SHUD RESULT IN LWR TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS. WENT A
    LITTLE HIGHER SINCE IT IS STILL EARLY SEPT...BUT THIS IS TRENDED TWD
    THE COOLER MOS TEMPS. OVERALL...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE SHORT
    TERM FROM THE PREV FCST.
    
    TILLY
    
    EXTENDED (MON - THURS)...
    
    SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT STAGE RIGHT INTO THE SERN CONUS
    GIVING US ONE MORE DAY OF COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY UNDER
    CLEAR SKIES. ANTICIPATE WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT THAT
    TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
    THEREAFTER SLY FLOW WILL RETURN USHERING WARMER AIR ACROSS THE RGN.
    H85 MID-LVL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF IMPULSES THRU THE H5
    LONGWAVE PATTERN  OVER THE INTER-MTN WEST WILL VEER SWLY AND ADVECT
    +20-24C TEMPS.  HAVE UPPED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MONDAY.
    DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACRS THE RGN IN ASSOC WITH A RIDGE OF
    SFC HIGH PRESSURE AS IT CONTINUALLY DRIFTS INTO THE SERN CONUS.
    
    INTO TUE MDL SOLNS SUCCINCT IN HANDLING OF UPR LVL FEATURES AND DEEP
    SFC LOW OVER THE N-CNTRL CONUS. A SFC FRONTAL BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO
    STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE MO-IA BORDER BUT REMAIN FAIRLY MOISTURE
    STARVED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
    SERN CONUS REMAINS WELL IN PLACE. WITH SFC AND MID-LVL SLY FLOW
    ADVECTING AN UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS NWD THRU THE RGN HAVE SLIGHT
    POPS FOR TUE ALONG THE STALLED SFC FRTL BNDRY BECOMING CATEGORICAL
    WED INTO THURS AS A DEEP H5 TROF BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE
    INTER-MTN WEST. SOME UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER
    EXPECTED WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PROCESSES AND POTENTIAL ASCENT
    ASSOC WITH UPR LVL IMPULSES EJECTING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LIFTING
    H5 TROF BY END OF THE FCST PD.  HOW THIS WILL IMPACT SFC TEMPS
    REMAIN TO BE SEEN...FOR NOW ANTICIPATE NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.  AS THE
    UPR LVL DISTURBANCE EJECTS NEWD INTO THE GREAT LKS RGN SFC HIGH PRES
    WILL BUILD THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS AND KICK THE INCLEMENT WEATHER EWD
    HOPEFULLY LEAVING US DRY BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
    
    SIPPRELL
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...
    /1143 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    A FEW LINGERING SHRA WERE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO AND SOUTHWEST
    IL AT 05Z BUT PCPN WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z.
    VFR CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND SCT
    DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TOMORROW. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE BY
    MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED DURING THE
    AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME STEAM FOG IN RIVER
    VALLEYS TOWARDS AND JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF PD DUE TO
    DECREASING WINDS...WARM RIVER/LAKE TEMPERATURES...AND MUCH COOLER
    AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.
    
    SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...VFR THROUGH THE PD. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO
    INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS
    EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
    
    KANOFSKY
    
    &&
    
    .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    MO...NONE.
    IL...NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    
    WFO LSX
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KPAH 030422 AAA
    AFDPAH
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
    1122 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .UPDATE...
    UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
    
    &&
    
    .DISCUSSION...
    MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST ARE POPS TONIGHT...AND
    TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION RETURNS
    TO POPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
    
    THE BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCHING EASTWARD
    ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY HAS FINALLY DRIED UP. WOULD EXPECT
    THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
    
    12Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL INDICATING THAT THE FRONT WILL RIP
    THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. EXAMINATION OF MODEL
    SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE REGION STILL NOT INDICATING ROBUST FORCING OR
    INSTABILITY TO WARRANT LIKELY OR BETTER POPS WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT.
    FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED CONVECTION...LIKELY EFFECTING THE
    KMVN AREA 03Z-06Z...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 06Z-12Z. AS
    SUCH...LIMITED POPS TO AROUND 50 WITH SCATTERED WORDING. WOULD NOT
    EXPECT MUCH WIDESPREAD QPF...ON AVERAGE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.
    
    THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN OMAHA AND KANSAS CITY...WITH
    DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S BEHIND IT AND GUSTY WINDS OVER 30KTS
    ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA. CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL DATA HAS DEWPOINTS
    NEAR 50 OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
    THIS FORECAST MAY NOT BE DRY OR COOL ENOUGH OVER THE
    WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE
    SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE
    COOL AND VERY DRY...WITH MONDAY WARMING UP TO AROUND 90 IN MOST
    LOCATIONS.
    
    SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. BASICALLY
    THE GFS AND ECWMF HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE
    UPPER RIDGE THEY DEVELOP NEXT WEEK. THEY ARE NOW SUPPRESSING THE
    RIDGE DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND COASTAL REGION. THE CONSENSUS
    IS NOW FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AROUND THE RIDGE
    AND TOWARD THE QUAD STATE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED
    THE 00Z ECMWF FOR POP POSITIONING...HOLDING THEM OFF UNTIL DURING
    THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE
    AND POPS WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS.
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...
    A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A
    CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
    BY 12Z FRIDAY...TURNING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS
    UP TO 20 MPH.
    
    &&
    
    .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    KY...NONE.
    MO...NONE.
    IL...NONE.
    IN...NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    
    JAP/RST
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KSGF 030515 CCA
    AFDSGF
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
    1217 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010
    
    ...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
    
    .DISCUSSION...
    /ISSUED 311 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON
    INTO TONIGHT.
    
    SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
    
    THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...COLD FRONT IS ON THE MOVE AND NOW
    RESIDES FROM NEAR THE KC METRO TO EMPORIA TO JUST EAST OF WICHITA.
    THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
    UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE WITH
    STEADILY DECREASING CIN. THIS FRONT WILL OVERTAKE A BROAD
    PREFRONTAL TROUGH HEADING INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD
    TRIGGER A MULTICELLULAR LINE OF TSRA ALONG THE FRONT.
    
    THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH THE EARLY
    EVENING HOURS...AND WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO
    AROUND 7 C/KM AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM...THE
    MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. SFC
    TO 700MB THETAE DIFFERENCES APPROACH OR EXCEED 30K...WHICH IS
    ANOTHER INDICATOR OF STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
    IS MARGINAL...UPWARDS OF 30KT COINCIDENT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY AS
    THE BETTER WESTERLIES REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT
    AN EVOLUTION TO A LINEAR MODE IS EXPECTED. THE RISK FOR HAIL IS A
    BIT MORE NEBULOUS AND MORE LIKELY DEPENDENT ON STORM STRUCTURE AS
    FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 14KFT. THE RISK FOR HAIL NEARING
    SEVERE LEVELS IS THERE...THOUGH LOWER THAN THE WIND RISK. WHILE
    THE TOR RISK IS ALWAYS NONZERO WITH CONVECTION...LOW LEVEL SHEAR
    VECTORS ARE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC BOUNDARY AND ON THE ORDER
    OF 15KT...WHICH IS NOT IDEAL. BOTTOM LINE...WIND IS THE PRIMARY
    RISK WITH CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
    
    THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE COLD FRONT STEADILY
    WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. INDICATIONS FROM
    MESOSCALE MODELS INFER THAT THE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL
    AFFECT THE SW HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MORE SCT ACTIVITY TO THE
    NORTH. THIS IS PAUSE FOR CONCERN GIVEN HEAVY RAINS FROM
    YESTERDAY. EVEN WITH A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...PW VALUES IN EXCESS
    OF 1.75 INCHES WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGH ONE HOUR RAINFALL RATES.
    WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS ADVERTISED FOR A
    LOCALIZED...THOUGH ELEVATED...FLASH FLOOD RISK.
    
    FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...QUIET...PLEASANT WEATHER FOR EARLY
    SEPTEMBER AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE
    REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
    COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS.
    
    GAGAN
    
    LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
    
    MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DECENT AGREEMENT. AN UPPER
    LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST SUN/MON AND SETTLE
    OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FROM TUE ONWARD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
    WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND REOPEN THE DOOR TO THE GULF. WARM
    AND MOIST AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH
    ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE AREA ON THE
    WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THERE
    IS CONCERN FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. INDICATIONS ARE
    THAT WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL BASED
    CONVECTION. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES A BIT FOR THE MIDDLE OF
    NEXT WEEK AND TEMPERED HIGHS A BIT BACK TOWARD AVERAGE GIVEN
    PROSPECTS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
    
    GAGAN
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...
    
    PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS CAN
    EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A DRY CANADIAN
    AIRMASS WILL SPREAD THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI...CREATING A FEW DAYS
    OF FAIR WEATHER.  SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM THE NORTHWEST.
    
    CRAMER
    
    &&
    
    .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    MO...NONE.
    
    KS...NONE.
    
    &&
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    

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  • FLUS43 KEAX 021800
    HWOEAX
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
    100 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
    043>046-053-054-031100-
    ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS-
    ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-
    HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON-
    CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-
    RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-
    COOPER-BATES-HENRY-
    100 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
    WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.
    
    .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
    
     THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
     NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND ADJACENT EASTERN KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THE
     SURFACE FRONT PRESSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF
     HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
     ACTIVITY. FURTHER SOUTH...A SECOND AREA THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
     WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO MOBERLY LINE WHERE
     SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED THE AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE COLD
     FRONT. IN THIS REGION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
     REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE OVERALL SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
     REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER...AS WELL AS LIMIT THE RISK
     FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
     THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI NEXT
     TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER
     APPEARS LOW.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
     SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM 2 TO 6 PM FOR AREAS
     SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KANSAS CITY TO MOBERLY.
    
    $$
    
    BOOKBINDER
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KLSX 022052
    HWOLSX
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
    352 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
    034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-031200-
    GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
    MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
    CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO-
    LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO-
    AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO-
    LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO-
    ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO-
    WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO-
    MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO-
    352 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
    CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT
    
    THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME OF
    THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE
    WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF
    60 MPH. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
    
    &&
    
    FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
    WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1
    
    $$
    
    TILLY
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KPAH 022050
    HWOPAH
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
    350 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
    100-107>112-114-031000-
    JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-
    WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE-
    HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH-
    WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES-
    LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL-
    UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN-
    MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-
    RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID-
    350 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
    ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST
    MISSOURI.
    
    .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
    
    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT
    THROUGH THE QUAD STATE TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL ENTER THE AREA
    AROUND 10 PM AND PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA
    THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
    PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH OVER SOUTHEAST
    MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS EVENING. THE STORMS ARE
    EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AND WEAKEN AS THEY SPREAD
    SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE QUAD STATE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
    WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS WEST
    KENTUCKY. ANY STORMS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.
    
    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA
    WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
    
    $$
    
    DRS
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KSGF 030402
    HWOSGF
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
    1102 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-040415-
    BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
    ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
    LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
    LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
    TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
    1102 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
    OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
    
     THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT.
    
    WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
    
     THE LIGHTNING RISK IS SIGNIFICANT.
     THE FLOODING RISK IS ELEVATED.
    
     DISCUSSION...
    
    A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF
    SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
    
    ONGOING FLOODING WILL PERSIST IN SEVERAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN
    MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. ANYONE NAVIGATING ON
    ROADWAYS ACROSS THE OZARKS...SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF LOW
    WATER CROSSINGS THAT MAY BE FLOODED. NUMEROUS LOW LYING ROADS NEAR
    STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL ALSO REMAIN FLOODED...AND IMPASSABLE TO
    MOTORISTS.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
      SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
    
    &&
    
    THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
    OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
    HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)
    
    $$
    
    CRAMER
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KFSD 030042
    AFDFSD
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
    742 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .DISCUSSION...
    ADJUSTED GRIDS EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE SSWRD PUSH TO ISOLD
    SHRA/TSRA INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT TREND IN HAVING THESE VANISH BY
    03Z ALONG WITH DIURNAL CYCLE LOOKS GOOD. ADVY ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT
    00Z WITH WNDS ALREADY WORKING ON DECOUPLING IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND
    THIS AS WELL GRADUAL CLEARING WL BE FEATURE OF NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACRS
    THE AREA...WITH GRADIENT FAVORING MORE OF A STEADY NR 10 KTS
    OVERNIGHT. WL PROBABLY TWEEK TRENDS SOMEWHAT...BUT OVERALL FCST
    LOOKS GOOD.  /CHAPMAN
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...
    VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST THRU 00Z SAT. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAINLY
    N OF INTERSTATE 90 WL QUICKLY DIMINISH THRU 01Z-02Z...AND WINDS
    GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS WL EASE AS WELL. WNDS SHUD RECOUPLE BY MID
    MORNING FRI AND GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KTS PSBL MAINLY ALG/E OF I29. SCT
    VFR CU EXPECTED BY 18Z. /CHAPMAN
    
    &&
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION...
    SCT SHWRS CONT TO DEVELOP INTO NWRN PART OF FCST AREA AND THEY SHUD
    CONT TO DVLP AND SPREAD ESEWD FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN. THO
    STRONGEST AND MOST WDSPRD ACTVTY IS TO THE N...SCT SHWRS W/ 50 PCT
    POP FAR NERN FCST AREA ALONG WITH ISOLD TSTMS HON/FSD/SPW AND
    NORTHEAST LOOKS GOOD. THIS IS ALL TO 00Z WHICH IS THE START OF TNGT
    PERIOD. WILL DECREASE SHOWER MENTION TO THE ENE AFT 00Z AND CUT
    TSTMS FOR ERY THIS EVE. ISOLD SHWRS CUD LINGER A LTL PAST 03Z FAR
    NERN/ECNTRL FCST AREA AS UPPER WV PASSES BY...OTRW SKIES SHOULD BE
    GOING PRETTY CLEAR AFTER THAT TIME WITH DRIER AIR MOVNG IN AND
    HEATING TURNED OFF.
    
    WIND ADVY FOR WRN FORECAST AREA HAS BECOME VALID. WINDS ARE NOT
    QUITE THERE YET BUT SHOULD INCREASE SOME MORE THRU 4PM AS RUC SHOWS
    BL WINDS STILL INCREASING. WILL THEREFORE KEEP AS IS TO 7 PM. WINDS
    WILL DECREASE STEADILY ERY THIS EVE AND SETTLE DOWN TO AROUND 10 MPH
    FOR THE NIGHT A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET. GUIDANCE LOW TEMPS LOOK
    GENERALLY OK...COOL BUT NOT AS COOL AS IT COULD BE WITHOUT THE
    LINGERING SFC AND LOW LEVEL WINDS. / WILLIAMS
    
    THE WEEKEND CONTS TO LOOK PLEASANT AND DRY. SAT WL REMAIN COOL AND
    BREEZY WHILE SUNDAY WL SEE LESS WIND AND WARMER TEMPS CLOSER TO
    NORM. HIGH TEMPS ON SAT WILL BE A FEW DEG EITHER SIDE OF 70 MOST
    PLACES. COOLEST MORN WL BE SAT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA.
    LOWS WL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
    
    WRMFNT WL LIFT N OF CWA LATE SUN NITE. CUD SEE AN ISOLD TRW ACRS N
    SUN NITE ON NOSE OF WAA...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO WL LEAVE DRY.
    CDFNT WL PUSH EWD ACRS CWA MON INTO MON EVE. NOT SURE IF ANY STORMS
    WL GET GOING AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY COMPLETELY CAP CWA. SO FOR
    THAT REASON WL ONLY KEEP 20 TO 30% POPS IN FCST WITH BEST CHC ACRS
    ERN CWA MON AFTN AND EVE JUST AHEAD OF FNT. SHUD WARM UP NICELY
    AHEAD OF THIS FNT ON MON WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. PLENTY OF MIXING
    BEHIND FNT WL ALSO KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO NORM AND ALSO BREEZY TO WINDY.
    
    TUES SHUD BE DRY AND PLEASANT ACRS CWA AS FNT STALLS STALLS ACRS NEB
    AND SRN IA. THIS FNT WL BEGIN TO LIFT N TUES NITE AND PERSIST ACRS
    CWA INTO THU. MAJOR TROF DIGGING ACRS WRN US WL BRING PLENTY OF LLM
    N INTO CWA WHICH CUD PRODUCE FAIRLY WDSPRD TRW N OF BNDRY WED NITE
    INTO THU.
    
    &&
    
    .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    SD...NONE.
    MN...NONE.
    IA...NONE.
    NE...NONE.
    
    &&
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KOAX 022002
    AFDOAX
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
    302 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
    
    MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND COOLER/DRIER
    CONDITIONS MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  COLD FRONT IS WELL
    SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...WITH GUSTY NWRLY WINDS BRINGING IN DRIER
    AIRMASS.  AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...BUT
    THINK MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN BY 00Z AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
    TO PUSH THROUGH THE PLAINS.  DEWPOINTS AT 19Z WERE FALLING INTO THE
    40S IN CNTRL NEB...AND EXPECT SIMILAR FALLING DEWPOINTS ACROSS NEB
    INTO WRN IA OVERNIGHT.  TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL WELL INTO THE
    50S...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS STILL HOVERING
    AROUND 10 KT.
    
    .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
    
    EXPECT DRY OR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM
    FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
    BUILD EWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. HIGHS IN OUR
    AREA SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY AFTN...THEN 75
    TO 80 ON SATURDAY. MODELS HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT PCPN NORTH
    OF WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE LIFTING NWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
    BUT FOR NOW WE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 80S
    SUNDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WINDS.
    
    TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY IS PROBLEMATIC. BRISK SOUTH OR
    SOUTHWEST WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF FRONT SUGGEST HIGHS IN
    UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. 00Z GFS MOS LOOKS BETTER TODAY THAN IT DID
    YESTERDAY.
    
    THE ECMWF...GFS AND GEM ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
    PATTERN INTO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE AREA NOW
    WILL MOVE EWD AS RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS INTO SATURDAY. THE
    RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT AND THEN PUSH OUT INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY.
    THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN OUR AREA TURNS FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST
    BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE 12Z GFS
    WAS A LITTLE STRONGER AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF IN
    REGARDS TO MOVING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WEAK CLOSED LOW INTO THE
    NRN PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY. WE GENERALLY REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
    ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK AS A RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SERN U.S. AND A
    TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT
    FAR OUT...BUT THOSE ARE NOT CONSIDERED SIGNIFICANT FOR OUR AREA.
    IT LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY
    MOVE UP INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...
    TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK
    
    18Z TAFS
    
    SKY CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...AND EXPECT CIGS
    TO LIFT/SCATTER THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  NWRLY WINDS
    WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT GUSTS TO RETURN
    BY LATE MORNING.
    
    &&
    
    .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    NE...NONE.
    IA...NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    
    SHORT TERM...MAYES
    LONG TERM....MILLER
    AVIATION...MAYES
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KLBF 022013
    AFDLBF
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
    240 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .SYNOPSIS...
        AT 18Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
    WESTERN MONTANA. THE SURFACE FRONT HAD MADE ITS WAY THROUGH NEBRASKA
    TO WESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN KANSAS. IN NEBRASKA...SURFACE DEWPOINTS
    WERE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH THE LOWEST VALUES IN THE
    PANHANDLE. FARTHER OUT...THERE WAS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
    GULF OF ALASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
    INDICATED UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
    FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR 43N/143W WITH
    RIDGING PUSHING UP ALONG THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND BRITISH
    COLUMBIA.
    &&
    
    .SHORT RANGE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
        THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT IS THE TEMPERATURES WITH THE
    CANADIAN HIGH AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.
    OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SOUTHEAST ALBERTA WERE IN THE 30S. WITH DRY AIR
    AND DECREASING WIND...IT IS A PRETTY SAFE BET THAT THE EASTERN
    PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WILL HAVE LOWS IN
    THE 30S TONIGHT. STATISTICAL OUTPUT SHOWS LOWS IN NORTH PLATTE AND
    OGALLALA 37-40. SINCE IT IS EARLY IN THE SEASON THOUGH...THE SOIL
    TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PRETTY WARM. THAT SHOULD IMPEDE THE
    TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT...SO ANY FROST THAT OCCURS IN THE EASTERN
    PANHANDLE AND THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE SPOTTY AND NOT
    WIDESPREAD. THEREFORE...WE ARE NOT PLANNING ANY ADVISORY FOR IT.
    HOWEVER...WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE
    CONDITION AND INCLUDE IT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
        TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AND LOWS FRIDAY
    NIGHT ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE 40S.
    
    .MEDIUM RANGE/EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
        TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER IN SOUTHWEST
    NEBRASKA AND IN THE PANHANDLE WITH HIGHS 85 TO 90. IN CENTRAL AND
    NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE LIKELY.
    TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER. THEN...ANOTHER FRONT WILL
    KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
        RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME
    MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
    DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WITH THE FRONT AND TRACK OF THE
    SURFACE LOW FOCUSING THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE AREA...THE
    CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN NEBRASKA WILL BE LOW. THERE MAY BE
    SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
    THURSDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO
    AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THAT
    TIME RANGE.
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...
        NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW AT 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH THE
    EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE CUMULUS FIELD IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING
    COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS
    THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE SURFACE COOLS AROUND
    SUNSET...THE SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR. COLD TEMPS TONIGHT MAY RESULT
    IN LOCALIZED AREAS OF FROST BY EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON GRASS
    RUNWAYS IN FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS OF THE NEB PANHANDLE AND THE
    PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. TOMORROW WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE
    NORTHWEST...HOWEVER NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY.
    &&
    
    .LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    SHORT/MEDIUM RANGE...SPRINGER
    AVIATION...MASEK
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS65 KCYS 030353
    AFDCYS
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
    953 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .UPDATE...METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE
    NIGHT. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND
    WINDS BASED ON TRENDS AND 00Z NAM MODEL AND GUIDANCE. FROST ADVISORY
    ON TRACK. WILL NEED TO WATCH ALLIANCE CLOSELY AS THIS LOCATION
    REALLY BOTTOMS OUT TEMPERATURE WISE IN THIS WEATHER SCENARIO.
    SITUATION WELL HANDLED WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED
    AT 301 PM TODAY.  RUBIN
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE. VFR AND NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
    THIN HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SURFACE
    HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY MORNING
    THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL
    BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING. RUBIN
    
    &&
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE. VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY SEPTEMBER
    4TH. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FEW IF ANY CLOUDS.  RUBIN
    
    PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
    SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND THEN ONTO
    THE PLAINS FOR FRIDAY.  THE FEATURE WILL BE REPLACED BY A SURFACE
    LEE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN WYOMING BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
    SATURDAY.  AT THE SAME TIME...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE
    ROCKIES WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CWA AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. THE
    ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRY OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY AND AFTER A
    COOL START FOR FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND WILL BE BACK
    TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HOW COLD
    THE LOWS WILL FALL TO TONIGHT. GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN ON THE
    HIGH SIDE LATELY. WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LIGHT WINDS AND
    GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE AT
    LEAST FROST IN LOW LYING AREAS. MODEL SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED
    OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT 12Z. THE LOCATION OF THE FEATURE MAY BE
    JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP LOWS FROM FALLING TOO FAR. LIGHT
    SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALSO START THE RECOVERY IN
    MANY PLACES LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY
    FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES AS WELL AS
    WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY FROM 09Z THROUGH 14Z. WILL ISSUE ANOTHER
    STATEMENT TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST IN LOW LYING AREAS
    FOR THE REST OF THE CWA.
    
    LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
    SW FLOW WILL OCCUR ALOFT ON SUN AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
    WESTERN U.S. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
    SYSTEM...AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE AT THIS TIME AS
    RHS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE LOW.  A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW WILL
    MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EVENING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
    ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE WY PORTION OF
    THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
    ON MONDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
    LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
    THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON MON...BUT WILL END BY MON EVENING AS
    THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP
    AGAIN ON TUES AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE
    WESTERN U.S. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS
    CAN BE EXPECTED ON WED AND THUR. A DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT OF THE
    MAIN LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WED...WHICH WILL
    AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
    THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON THUR...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE
    FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.
    ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THUR NIGHT.
    HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
    SUN...AROUND NORMAL MON AND TUES...AND 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
    FOR WED AND THUR.
    
    AVIATION...00Z TAFS
    VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY.
    NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST
    PART OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNSET.  SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
    OVER THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25
    KNOTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON SATURDAY.
    
    FIRE WEATHER...
    NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
    NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SATURDAY OVER THE CWA TO WELL ABOVE
    NORMAL WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.  FIRE WEATHER
    CONCERNS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY.  ON THAT DAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE
    HUMIDITIES WILL BE BETWEEN 11 AND 16 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER
    ELEVATIONS AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 30 MPH
    ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.  SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN DRIER AND
    WINDIER OVER THE CWA AND FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED BY
    SUNDAY.  A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
    MONDAY MORNING FOR A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER.
    
    &&
    
    .CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    WY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM FRIDAY FOR WYZ104-WYZ105-
         WYZ109-WYZ110-WYZ111-WYZ113-WYZ115-WYZ117.
    NE...NONE.
    
    &&
    
    $$
    
    SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEILAND
    LONG TERM...KMD
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KGLD 030430
    AFDGLD
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
    1030 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .DISCUSSION...
    239 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    1845 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS
    NORTHERN CONUS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS BOTH SW AND SE CONUS.
    CWA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON BACKSIDE OF TROUGH, WITH DRY AIR
    CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO AREA. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE
    OVERNIGHT TEMPS, FOLLOWED BY RAPID WARMUP OVER THE WEEKEND.
    
    TONIGHT...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
    OVER AREA. A BIT CONCERNED THAT RUC WANTS TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER DEW
    PTS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S OVERNIGHT, BUT THE RUC ALSO IS NOT
    CAPTURING CURRENT DEWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS NE COLO AND SW NEB
    WELL. BELIEVE THIS DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER DEW PTS INTO THE
    MID/UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT AND OVERALL WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH
    OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW ZONES TO THE MID/UPPER 40S SE ZONES.
    
    TOMORROW-MONDAY...GRADUAL WARMUP STARTS TOMORROW, WITH MORE RAPID
    WARMUP ENSUING OVER WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD AREA. HAVE
    TWEAKED HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES. QUESTIONS AS TO HOW WARM TO MAKE IT
    SUNDAY. RUN TO RUN MODEL COMPS SHOWS HIGHER THICKNESSES SUNDAY
    VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS, MOS DEPICTS MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
    CWA, AND LOCAL BIAS CORRECTIONS WOULD SUGGEST SOME AREAS APPROACHING
    IF NOT REACHING 100 DEGREES. WILL BUMP TEMPS TO THE MID/UPPER 90S IN
    MOST AREAS FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE. FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL
    LOOKS GOOD FOR MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WOULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON
    HIGHS, BUT CURRENT THINKING TO DROP TEMPS BY 5-10 DEGREES LOOKS
    GOOD. HAVE KEPT MONDAY DRY WITH SILENT POPS UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY
    WHEN BOTH EXT MODELS DEPICT A BIT OF QPF.
    
    IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ADVERTISING BROAD UPPER
    LEVEL DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH
    CENTERED OVER SE CONUS, WITH CWA UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AND
    POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE PATTERN. THE GFS CLOSES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
    OVER CALIFORNIA WHEREAS THE EC KEEPS THE TROUGH OPEN, AND THUS THE
    GFS IS A BIT SLOWER IN ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. BIGGEST DIFF BTWN
    THE TWO MODELS IS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, BUT HAVE BROADBRUSHED
    SLIGHT POPS BEGINNING TUE EVE THROUGH WED AS BOTH MODELS COMING INTO
    BETTER AGREEMENT IN PAINTING PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH
    POSITION OF SFC FRONT IN QUESTION.
    
    50
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...
    1030 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR FOR KGLD AND KMCK. SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OVER
    THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SLIDING EAST FOR THE
    REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. LGT/VAR WINDS
    WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY AT KGLD BY 18Z AND KMCK AFTER 00Z.
    
    07
    
    &&
    
    .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    KS...NONE.
    NE...NONE.
    CO...NONE.
    
    &&
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS63 KGID 030529
    AFDGID
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
    1229 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010
    
    .AVIATION...06Z TAF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR
    THROUGH THE PERIOD...LEAVING WINDS AS THE ONLY REAL ITEM OF
    INTEREST. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND AN AREA OF
    SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE
    HIGH PLAINS. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS MIXING
    INCREASES...RESULTING IN GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. BY LATE
    AFTERNOON...THIS CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WINDS BEING MIXED DOWN TO
    THE SURFACE WILL SHIFT EAST OF KGRI AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM
    THE WEST...ALLOWING SPEEDS TO DROP TO BELOW 12 KTS. WINDS WILL
    THEN TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE
    RIDGE AXIS PASSES BY.
    
    &&
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE
    CWFA WITH SHARPLY LOWER DEWPOINTS /40S/ AND GUSTY WINDS IN ITS
    WAKE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT DROP OFF
    QUICKLY. MODELS SHOW A BIT OF GUSTINESS EARLY FRIDAY OVER AREAS
    EAST OF HIGHWAY 281...AND WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF THAT AREA WAS
    BREEZY /UP TO 25 MPH/ DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
    MOVE INTO LATER IN THE DAY AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF DURING THE DAY
    FROM WEST TO EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REFLECT THE DRY AIR AND DIP
    INTO THE 40S AND 50S...AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE FOR MIDDLE 70S IN
    SOME AREAS FRIDAY. CERTAINLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.
    
    THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A WARMING TREND AS SOUTHERLY WINDS START
    TO PICK UP. STRONG MID LEVEL CAP MOVES INTO THE CWFA BY SATURDAY
    EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST. THE AFTERNOON
    HOURS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES. OVERALL...ITS GOING TO BE A PRETTY
    NICE WEEKEND.
    
    LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z MONDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER
    UPON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
    AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA...SOUTHWARD
    INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS
    TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHWESTERN U.S.
    THIS WEEKEND BEFORE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
    ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE MONDAY. BOTH THE EC AND OPERATIONAL GFS
    INDICATE A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT OUT FROM THE TROUGH
    MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY
    TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING
    SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG A 50KT JET
    STREAK...WHICH WILL IN TURN STRENGTHEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.
    SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS NOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
    PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE SURFACE LOW THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH
    ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ON INTO SOUTHERN CANADA OUT AHEAD
    OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. WHILE THERE WERE DISAGREEMENTS
    YESTERDAY BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC REGARDING THE
    ASSOCIATED FROPA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW...BOTH
    MODELS NOW INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA
    DURING THE DAY MONDAY...LIKELY CLEARING OUR ENTIRE CWA BY 06Z TUE.
    LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL
    STALL OUT SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN OR CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY. THE
    AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ROUND THE
    BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH AND EJECT OFF TO THE
    NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND AS A RESULT...ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE
    CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF
    COLORADO...THUS ALLOWING THE SURFACE FRONT OVER KANSAS TO SURGE
    NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
    
    BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PRESENT PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF
    THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED
    YESTERDAY...FRONTAL TIMING APPEARS KEY TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION
    MONDAY AFTERNOON. NOW THAT THE EC AND OPERATIONAL GFS HAVE FALLEN IN
    LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
    FOR MONDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST FOR LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO THE
    BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA INTO
    TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
    ALSO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK
    NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...AND AN AXIS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP IN
    THE 310-320K SURFACE RANGE PER THE EC.
    
    ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO
    THE LOW TO MID 20S C. THIS SHOULD YIELD MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
    THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S F. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
    POST-FROPA ON TUESDAY...WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES FORECAST
    WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.
    
    &&
    
    .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    NE...NONE.
    KS...NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    
    AVIATION...KB
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KFSD 021622
    HWOFSD
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
    1120 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2010
    
    SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
    IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-031200-
    AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
    CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
    DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
    IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
    LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
    OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
    SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
    1120 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
    SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
    
    .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
    
    THUNDERSTORMS...
    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY SCATTERED SHOWERS
    REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON NORTHEAST OF A HURON TO SIOUX FALLS
    TO STORM LAKE IOWA LINE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT
    ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50
    MPH AND SMALL HAIL.
    
    WIND AND FOG...
    WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH
    POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM CHAMBERLAIN AND GREGORY EAST INTO
    PARTS OF THE  JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE
    THIS EVENING.
    
    FIRE DANGER...
    THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL REACH HIGH TO VERY HIGH THIS
    AFTERNOON IN GREGORY COUNTY.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
    
    &&
    
    FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
    WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
    WEATHER OUTLOOK.
    
    $$
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KOAX 022209
    HWOOAX
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
    509 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
    042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>090-092-031215-
    MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT-
    PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON-
    STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER-
    SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE-
    JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-PAWNEE-
    509 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
    SOUTHWEST IOWA.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
    
    THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LABOR DAY AFTERNOON AS A
    COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS RISK OF
    THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
    AS THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL STALL NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER AND THEN
    ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.
    
    $$
    
    NEZ091-093-031215-
    NEMAHA-RICHARDSON-
    509 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
    NEBRASKA.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
    
    MINOR FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM
    AROUND BROWNVILLE DOWNSTREAM THROUGH RULO.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
    
    THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
    FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
    CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPEARS IT
    WILL STALL NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER AND THEN ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTH
    AS A WARM FRONT.
    
    MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM
    BROWNVILLE DOWNSTREAM TO RULO INTO LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.
    
    $$
    
    CHERMOK
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KLBF 022034
    HWOLBF
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
    334 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-032045-
    SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
    GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
    LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
    WESTERN CHERRY-
    334 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 /234 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
    NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
    
    COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA
    OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED AREA OF PATCHY FROST OVER
    THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
    
    &&
    
    THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
    HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
    HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE
    
    $$
    
    MASEK
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS45 KCYS 022050
    HWOCYS
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
    250 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>119-031015-
    DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE-
    NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS-
    NIOBRARA COUNTY-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE-
    FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-SHIRLEY BASIN-
    CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY-
    EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY-
    NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY-
    SIERRA MADRE RANGE-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE-
    LARAMIE VALLEY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS-
    CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY-
    250 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
    PANHANDLE...EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND
    SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
    
    .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
    
    GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
    NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH.  THE WINDS MAY
    PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PANHANDLE...ESPECIALLY
    FOR THOSE WITH LIGHTWEIGHT OR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON WEST TO EAST
    ORIENTED HIGHWAYS.
    
    FROST WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND
    ALBANY COUNTIES AS WELL AS WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY.  A FROST ADVISORY
    HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT AREA BETWEEN 3 AM AND 8 AM.  AREAS OF FROST
    ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME OVER THE REST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
    THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD
    FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM WESTERN WYOMING. CRITICAL
    FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
    TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES DROP INTO
    THE LOW TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING AND AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
    RANGE.
    
    ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
    NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST
    WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
    EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
    
    &&
    
    THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND
    CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT...
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE
    
    $$
    
    WEILAND
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KGLD 022230
    HWOGLD
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
    430 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-031200-
    YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
    SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
    DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
    430 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010 /530 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
    NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS43 KGID 021934
    HWOGID
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
    234 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
    031200-
    PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
    SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
    GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
    WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
    234 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
    PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
    
    THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
    
    SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA
    BEGINNING NEXT MONDAY...AND CONTINUE PERIODICALLY THROUGH
    WEDNESDAY.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.
    
    &&
    
    MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
       HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS64 KTSA 030440
    AFDTSA
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
    1140 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .AVIATION...
    CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
    COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR A KMLC-KFSM LINE WITH
    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG
    AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
    SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
    HOURS AT ALL AREA TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KRVS AND
    KTUL. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRIEFLY
    REDUCE CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR AND MVFR RANGE. VFR
    CONDITIONS WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS
    AND THUNDERSTORMS.
    
    
    &&
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    ..UPDATE...
    
    DISCUSSION...
    COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE
    FORECAST AREA WITH ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM NW
    AR INTO EAST CENTRAL OK. SCATTERED STORMS ALSO CONTINUE FURTHER
    NORTH ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE AND THE LATEST NAM MAINTAINS
    THIS CONVECTION INTO NW ARKANSAS BEFORE DISSIPATING IT DURING THE
    EARLY MORNING HOURS.
    
    THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE STABILIZING
    BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE UPDATED ZONE FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ONCE
    THE CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EXPIRES AT 10 PM. ANY
    ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD BE ISOLATED AND LIKELY
    BRIEF IN NATURE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED TO
    CONTINUE ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK AND INTO WESTERN AR.
    
    UPDATED FORECAST WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP CHANCES
    THOUGH THE TREND OF DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT REMAINS
    VALID.
    
    &&
    
    .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    OK...NONE.
    AR...NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    
    AVIATION...10
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS64 KOUN 030353
    AFDOUN
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
    1053 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .AVIATION... RAIN/T-STORMS MAY LINGER IN THE KSPS AREA FOR THE
    1ST COUPLE HRS... OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ERODING N TO S
    OVERNIGHT. LOW AND MID LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY FRIDAY THUS FEW
    CLOUDS IF ANY. WINDS DECREASING AND VEERING TO MORE E/SE FRIDAY
    EVENING WITH SFC RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE AREA.
    
    &&
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    UPDATE...
    STRONGEST STORMS ARE COMING DOWN AND WILL MOVE S OUT OF OUR TX
    ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO FIT CURRENT AND
    EXPECTED SHORT-TERM TRENDS. A FEW OF THE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER
    NE OK COULD BUILD BACK INTO PARTS OF NCENTRAL OK... OTHERWISE N
    AND W OK SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORMS. WW642 WILL
    BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.
    
    PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    DISCUSSION...
    COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
    PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
    AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH.
    INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
    SOME SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP... WITH STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND
    HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER
    AIR TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLEASANT WEATHER MOST LOCATIONS
    FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR A
    FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE
    WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
    
    MODELS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
    TEMPERATURES WARMING SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
    SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE
    SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO
    SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
    MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA AND DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.
    WITH THE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... DID
    NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
    NEXT WEEK.
    
    &&
    
    .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
    OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  83  55  87 /  10   0   0   0
    HOBART OK         58  84  56  87 /  10   0   0   0
    WICHITA FALLS TX  63  87  58  90 / 100  10   0   0
    GAGE OK           53  83  49  90 /  10   0   0   0
    PONCA CITY OK     56  83  52  86 /  20   0   0  10
    DURANT OK         65  86  58  88 /  60  10   0   0
    
    &&
    
    .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    OK...NONE.
    TX...NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    
    23/24/24
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS64 KAMA 030454 AAD
    AFDAMA
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
    1154 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .AVIATION...
    VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
    REGION.
    
    ANDRADE
    
    &&
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    UPDATE...
    FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO REMOVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE
    REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES
    THIS EVENING...TAKING WITH IT THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AIR
    IS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH DEWPOINTS ALL
    READY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S. MINOR EDITS WERE MADE TO LOWER THE
    DEWPOINTS AND LOW TEMPS ESP ACROSS THE NORTHERN SPOTS. NO FURTHER
    UPDATES PLANNED ATTM.
    
    PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    UPDATE...
    SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM
    COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY AS FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED THE AREA. WILL
    LEAVE POPS ALONE ATTM BUT WILL MOST LIKELY TRIM/REMOVE THEM IN
    ANOTHER UPDATED LATER THIS EVENING.
    
    TAB
    
    PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    AVIATION...
    SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TSTMS ARE WELL E AND S OF ALL TAF
    SITES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY MID EVENING...AND REMAIN
    GENERALLY LIGHT REST OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24
    HOURS.
    
    ANDRADE
    
    PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    DISCUSSION...
    THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
    THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE. THEREFORE...HAVE TRIMED BACK TO
    POPS TO INCLUDE ONLY THE AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THERE IS A SEVERE
    THREAT FOR ANY AREAS SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...THUS THERE IS A SEVERE
    THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY. THE CLEARING SKIES...DRY
    AIR ADVECTION...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE A GOOD SET UP FOR
    RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THUS UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR MIN
    TEMPS TONIGHT.
    
    FOR THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH DIGGING
    SOUTH ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. AS
    A RESULT...EXPECT A MUCH QUICKER WARM UP. THEREFORE...WENT NEAR OR
    ABOVE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY.
    
    NEXT WEEK...THE GFS HAS TRENDED CLOSER TIO THE ECMWF...SHOWING THE
    PLUME OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN
    PANHANDLES...AS COMPARED TO THE FURTHER WEST SOLUTION IT SHOWED AT
    THE 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH
    AND POSSIBLY WEAK STATIONARY FRONT REMAINING GENERALLY OVER THE
    WESTERN PANHANDLES. CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITIONS OF
    BOTH FEATURES...HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
    THURSDAY TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
    OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
    
    SJOHNSON
    
    FIRE WEATHER...
    THE DRIER AIR THAT WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
    WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW 15
    PERCENT TOMORROW. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
    CONCERNS MINIMAL. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS
    A SURFACE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH...BRINGING DRY AND WARM DOWNSLOPING
    SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...ON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
    DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT AND WINDS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 15 MPH. CHANCES
    OF RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER WILL REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FMID WEEK.
    
    SJOHNSON
    
    &&
    
    .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    TX...NONE.
    OK...NONE.
    
    &&
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS64 KSHV 030205 CCA
    AFDSHV
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR AVIATION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
    905 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .DISCUSSION...
    A FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING
    FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION. CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS
    NEARLY DIMINISHED OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS EVENING...ONLY
    LEAVING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
    EVENING CLEARLY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE NE AND INTO
    IO WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL MO AND INTO CENTRAL
    OK AND NORTHWEST TX. A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG
    THE FRONT AS SEEN ON AREA RADAR IMAGERY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
    BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DURING THE
    EARLY TO MID OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO REACH
    THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWFA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
    HOWEVER...AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO A SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE
    AIRMASS...IT WILL BE ALLOWED TO WEAKEN A BIT BEFORE ENTERING THE
    CWFA. HOWEVER...WILL NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING A FEW
    STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
    CONCERN BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY DIES DOWN. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD NOT
    MAKE IT TOO FAR INTO THE CWFA AS THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT IS
    EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA. BUT OVERALL THE
    CURRENT POPS AND WX GRIDS REFLECT ALL OF THE CURRENT THINKING...SO
    NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THESE. ANY RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
    STORMS IS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE HWO FROM THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO
    CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THAT AS WELL.
    
    THE PRIMARY CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING WERE
    TO TEMPERATURES. MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
    HAVE BEEN COOLING MORE QUICKLY THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. MOST
    LOCATIONS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO SEE THEIR FORECASTED LOWS.
    HOWEVER...HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY
    ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
    TEMPS ACCORDINGLY AND BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
    
    THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS OVERALL IN DECENT SHAPE...WITH
    ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE HERE OR THERE BASED ON
    OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT AND POSTED TO
    THE WEB SHORTLY. /22/
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...
    VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH SOME
    MVFR CIGS RETURNING AFTER 10Z. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
    AREA TOMORROW...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY DURING
    THE DAY AS FROPA TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SOME
    SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND
    AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
    OBSERVED IN DEEP EAST TEXAS. /11/
    
    &&
    
    .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
    SHV  74  90  63  89  60 /  20  30  10   0   0
    MLU  72  91  61  89  58 /  10  30  10   0   0
    DEQ  69  88  54  88  52 /  60  30   0   0   0
    TXK  70  88  58  86  57 /  30  30  10   0   0
    ELD  70  89  57  86  54 /  20  30  10   0   0
    TYR  72  88  61  88  60 /  40  20  10   0   0
    GGG  73  90  60  88  58 /  30  20  10   0   0
    LFK  75  91  64  91  59 /  20  30  20   0   0
    
    &&
    
    .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    AR...NONE.
    LA...NONE.
    OK...NONE.
    TX...NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    
    22/11
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS44 KTSA 030245
    HWOTSA
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
    945 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031000-
    ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
    CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
    LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
    OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
    PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
    WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
    945 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
    MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
    
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
    RISK...LIMITED.
    AREA...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FAYETTEVILLE TO OKMULGEE.
    ONSET...ONGOING.
    
    FLASH FLOOD.
    RISK...LIMITED.
    AREA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
    ONSET...ONGOING.
    
    SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
    RISK...LIMITED.
    AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
    ONSET...ONGOING.
    
    DISCUSSION...
    NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT...
    THOUGH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING.  ANY
    FURTHER SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE LIMITED WITH ISOLATED
    POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
    
    LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE FROM EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ACROSS
    NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  MINOR URBAN FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE
    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PASS.
    
    GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS
    OF 25 TO 35 MPH REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
    
    SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
    LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
    FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
    SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
    TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
    WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
    
    EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
    MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
    INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK RAISING FIRE
    WEATHER CONCERNS.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN BY THE MIDDLE
    OF NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
    
    WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS44 KOUN 030513
    HWOOUN
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
    1213 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010
    
    OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031200-
    HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
    ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
    WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
    POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
    COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
    CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
    WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
    1213 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
    CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
    
    .DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...
    
    THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
    NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
    
    DISCUSSION...
    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
    OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WITH CHANCES DECREASING
    WITH TIME. THE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATED AND
    INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
    BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
    
    PROBABILITY TABLE...
    VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY SEP 3.
    PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
                  NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
    PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
    
    OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
    NONE.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
    
    THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
    A DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD
    FRONT...KEEPING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
    MOISTURE WILL THEN RETURN...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
    THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
    
    OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
    NONE.
    
    THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT
    5 AM FRIDAY. UNSCHEDULED UPDATES MAY ALSO BE ISSUED.
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS44 KAMA 030346 AAB
    HWOAMA
    
    TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
    1045 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-031100-
    ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
    DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
    OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
    1045 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
    PANHANDLES.
    
    .DAY ONE...
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
    
    THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
    OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE TEXAS
    PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE TUESDAY THROUGH
    THURSDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
    SEVERE LEVELS AT THIS TIME.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
    
    $$
    
    ANDRADE
    
    ANDRADE
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS44 KSHV 021721
    HWOSHV
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
    1221 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072-LAZ001>003-010-017-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
    108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-031730-
    SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
    COLUMBIA-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-DE SOTO-SABINE LA-MCCURTAIN-
    RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-
    MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-
    SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
    1221 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
    ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND FOR DEEP EAST
    AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.
    
    .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
    WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS
    A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS OVER THE AREA. STRONGER
    STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO 40 TO 50 MPH
    ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...THEN DIMINISHING THIS EVENING
    WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
    
    HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL STRONGER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
    THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
    CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL BE AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
    SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING ACROSS OKLAHOMA. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
    WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER OKLAHOMA...AS THE
    THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
    AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT STILL GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL
    WILL BE POSSIBLE.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
    ISOLATED...TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
    POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
    FRIDAY...AS THE COOL FRONT PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
    
    HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKY WARN NETWORKS...AND HAM
    RADIO OPERATORS...SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
    
    $$
    
    ARZ073-LAZ004>006-011>014-018>022-031730-
    UNION AR-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-UNION LA-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-
    OUACHITA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-
    1221 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
    ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
    
    .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
    TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM EL DORADO TO NATCHITOCHES AND POINTS
    EAST...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
    THE AREA. HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
    ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
    POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
    FRIDAY...AS A COOL FRONT PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
    HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
    
    $$
    
    24
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS64 KFWD 030422
    AFDFWD
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
    1122 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .AVIATION...
    HAVE REMOVED TSRA FROM METROPLEX TAFS...AT MOST AN ISOLATED
    SHOWER MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL KEEP VFR
    THROUGH PERIOD. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE NAM WANTS TO
    DEVELOP SOME STORMS NEAR WACO LATE MORNING...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP
    AN EYE ON THAT OVERNIGHT.
    
    &&
    
    .UPDATE...
    SQUALL LINE REALLY FELL APART QUICKLY AS IT REACHED THE CWA. WILL
    LOWER POPS A BIT AND TONE DOWN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN OTHER
    PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED UNORGANIZED
    CONVECTION OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH FRONT
    AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINING IN PLACE. TR.92
    
    &&
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    MCV FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ROTATE JUST WEST OF
    TARRANT COUNTY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS
    MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED IN THE
    SOUTHERN ZONES IN AN AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY. NORTH OF THE
    SOUTHERN ZONES...THE AIRMASS IS WORKED OVER BY THE MORNING
    CONVECTION AND TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 80S FOR
    MANY LOCATIONS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR IN THE
    NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH THE CLEARING LINE LOCATED FROM COMANCHE TO
    MINERAL WELLS TO GAINESVILLE. TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA HAVE
    CLIMBED UP NICELY INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THESE
    MESOSCALE FEATURES /SMALL AREAS WITH DIFFERENT STABILITIES AND THE
    MCV/ WILL ALL PLAY IMPORTANT ROLES WITH HOW EVERYTHING WILL PLAY
    OUT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
    THE CWA.
    
    AT 20Z...THE FRONT WAS LOCATED IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND IS
    QUICKLY PUSHING SOUTH AS NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GUST IN
    EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
    OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
    IN OKLAHOMA AS INHIBITION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WITH HIGH CAPES AND
    500 MB FLOW AROUND 20 KNOTS...STRONG UPDRAFTS SHOULD QUICKLY
    DEVELOP AFTER INITIATION. STORMS WILL INITIALLY HAVE A WIND THREAT
    BUT THEN MAY BE UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH.
    STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH
    THIS EVENING THE STORM MODE WILL MOST LIKELY BE MULTI-CELLULAR.
    TIMING OF THE FRONT/STORMS BRINGS IT TO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES
    SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 3AM AND THEN
    THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN OUR CURRENT
    ENVIRONMENT...AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE CURRENT CLEARING LINE WILL
    HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT
    AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECTING ANY ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS IT
    MOVES INTO THE METROPLEX AND FURTHER SOUTH AS IT RUNS INTO A MORE
    STABLE AIRMASS. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND
    THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES POST FRONTAL TOMORROW
    MORNING. THE THETA-E BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG
    BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT AT 925 AND 850 MB AFTER PUSHING SOUTH OF
    INTERSTATE 20. THE NAM PICKS UP ON THIS AND SHOWS WIDESPREAD QPF
    THROUGH 21Z IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL GO WITH A 40/30 POP TO
    ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
    
    COOL/DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN SLOWLY BEHIND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT.
    SOME AREAS TODAY HAVE GOTTEN AN EARLY PREVIEW OF THE TEMPERATURES
    EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
    MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND WITH THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS IN
    PLACE LOWS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE 50S FOR MANY OUTLYING AREAS
    NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AND
    RETURN TO THE MIDDLE 90S BY MONDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
    DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTH AS IT
    ROTATES AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS. WILL
    LEAVE THE 20/30 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY- WEDNESDAY.
    
    85/NH
    
    
    
    &&
    
    
    .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
    DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  69  89  63  90  65 /  50  10   5   5   0
    WACO, TX              72  88  62  89  61 /  40  30   5   5   0
    PARIS, TX             69  86  58  85  58 /  50  10   5   5   5
    DENTON, TX            69  88  58  90  59 /  60  10   5   5   0
    MCKINNEY, TX          67  87  55  87  55 /  40  10   5   5   0
    DALLAS, TX            71  87  64  90  66 /  40  10   5   5   0
    TERRELL, TX           69  88  60  88  60 /  40  20   5   5   0
    CORSICANA, TX         73  89  62  89  62 /  40  20   5   5   0
    TEMPLE, TX            73  90  63  90  61 /  40  40   5   5   5
    MINERAL WELLS, TX     67  88  56  89  60 /  70  10   5   5   0
    
    &&
    
    .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    NONE.
    
    &&
    
    $$
    
     /
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS64 KSHV 030205 CCA
    AFDSHV
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR AVIATION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
    905 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .DISCUSSION...
    A FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING
    FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION. CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS
    NEARLY DIMINISHED OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS EVENING...ONLY
    LEAVING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS
    EVENING CLEARLY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE NE AND INTO
    IO WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL MO AND INTO CENTRAL
    OK AND NORTHWEST TX. A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG
    THE FRONT AS SEEN ON AREA RADAR IMAGERY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
    BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DURING THE
    EARLY TO MID OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO REACH
    THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWFA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
    HOWEVER...AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO A SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE
    AIRMASS...IT WILL BE ALLOWED TO WEAKEN A BIT BEFORE ENTERING THE
    CWFA. HOWEVER...WILL NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING A FEW
    STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY
    CONCERN BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY DIES DOWN. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD NOT
    MAKE IT TOO FAR INTO THE CWFA AS THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT IS
    EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA. BUT OVERALL THE
    CURRENT POPS AND WX GRIDS REFLECT ALL OF THE CURRENT THINKING...SO
    NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THESE. ANY RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
    STORMS IS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE HWO FROM THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO
    CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THAT AS WELL.
    
    THE PRIMARY CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING WERE
    TO TEMPERATURES. MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
    HAVE BEEN COOLING MORE QUICKLY THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. MOST
    LOCATIONS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO SEE THEIR FORECASTED LOWS.
    HOWEVER...HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY
    ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY
    TEMPS ACCORDINGLY AND BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
    
    THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS OVERALL IN DECENT SHAPE...WITH
    ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE HERE OR THERE BASED ON
    OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT AND POSTED TO
    THE WEB SHORTLY. /22/
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...
    VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH SOME
    MVFR CIGS RETURNING AFTER 10Z. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
    AREA TOMORROW...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY DURING
    THE DAY AS FROPA TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SOME
    SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND
    AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
    OBSERVED IN DEEP EAST TEXAS. /11/
    
    &&
    
    .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
    SHV  74  90  63  89  60 /  20  30  10   0   0
    MLU  72  91  61  89  58 /  10  30  10   0   0
    DEQ  69  88  54  88  52 /  60  30   0   0   0
    TXK  70  88  58  86  57 /  30  30  10   0   0
    ELD  70  89  57  86  54 /  20  30  10   0   0
    TYR  72  88  61  88  60 /  40  20  10   0   0
    GGG  73  90  60  88  58 /  30  20  10   0   0
    LFK  75  91  64  91  59 /  20  30  20   0   0
    
    &&
    
    .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    AR...NONE.
    LA...NONE.
    OK...NONE.
    TX...NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    
    22/11
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS64 KOUN 030353
    AFDOUN
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
    1053 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .AVIATION... RAIN/T-STORMS MAY LINGER IN THE KSPS AREA FOR THE
    1ST COUPLE HRS... OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ERODING N TO S
    OVERNIGHT. LOW AND MID LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY FRIDAY THUS FEW
    CLOUDS IF ANY. WINDS DECREASING AND VEERING TO MORE E/SE FRIDAY
    EVENING WITH SFC RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE AREA.
    
    &&
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    UPDATE...
    STRONGEST STORMS ARE COMING DOWN AND WILL MOVE S OUT OF OUR TX
    ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO FIT CURRENT AND
    EXPECTED SHORT-TERM TRENDS. A FEW OF THE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER
    NE OK COULD BUILD BACK INTO PARTS OF NCENTRAL OK... OTHERWISE N
    AND W OK SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORMS. WW642 WILL
    BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE.
    
    PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    DISCUSSION...
    COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
    PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS
    AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH.
    INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
    SOME SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP... WITH STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND
    HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER
    AIR TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLEASANT WEATHER MOST LOCATIONS
    FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR A
    FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE
    WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.
    
    MODELS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
    TEMPERATURES WARMING SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS
    SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE
    SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO
    SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
    MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA AND DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.
    WITH THE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... DID
    NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO
    NEXT WEEK.
    
    &&
    
    .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
    OKLAHOMA CITY OK  61  83  55  87 /  10   0   0   0
    HOBART OK         58  84  56  87 /  10   0   0   0
    WICHITA FALLS TX  63  87  58  90 / 100  10   0   0
    GAGE OK           53  83  49  90 /  10   0   0   0
    PONCA CITY OK     56  83  52  86 /  20   0   0  10
    DURANT OK         65  86  58  88 /  60  10   0   0
    
    &&
    
    .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    OK...NONE.
    TX...NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    
    23/24/24
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS64 KEWX 030504
    AFDEWX
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
    1204 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010
    
    .AVIATION...
    VFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH 11Z ACROSS ALL LOCAL SITES THEN
    MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
    COMES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. I -35 TERMINALS TO BE AFFECTED
    WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH CIGS OF 1000 TO 2000
    FEET AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
    THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE I 35 LOCAL SITES FROM 19Z TO 23Z.
    
    FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...
    ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AND
    INTERACT THE A COOLER AIR MASS AND INITIATE SHOWERS AND
    THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOST SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING.
    
    &&
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    UPDATE...
    ADDED POPS TO THE SWRN COUNTIES AS WELL AS INCREASING POPS OVER
    THE SERN CWA AS CONVECTION WILL SHIFT IN THOSE DIRECTIONS WITH THE
    OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND TOWARD AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE STILL
    IN THE LOWER 90S.
    
    PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    AVIATION...
    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ALONG I-35
    TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
    AFFECT THE SAN MARCOS...NEW BRAUNFELS AND SAN ANTONIO AREAS WITHIN
    THE NEXT HOUR. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES...VFR CONDITIONS TO
    PREVAIL ALONG THE I 35 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS DRT. ABOUT 09Z TO
    12Z...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO GO DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS WHILE COMING
    BACK UP THE FOLLOWING HOUR.
    
    FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO COME ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
    FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO LOCALIZED HEAVY
    SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY AND
    ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM 19Z TO 23Z. THEREFORE...ADDED TEMPO
    GROUPS FOR ALL SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
    
    PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    DISCUSSION...
    THIS AFTERNOON A RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT ORIGINATED FROM
    THE NORTH TEXAS MCS...WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY
    AND OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS BOUNDARY WAS TRIGGERING SCATTERED
    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
    WERE FORMING OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SEA
    BREEZE. WE EXPECTED THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
    HOURS...BEING SUSTAINED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MERGERS. THE STRONGER
    STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND
    GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. THE CONVECTION WILL WANE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
    LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
    
    A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS
    PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL BE ENTERING THE HILL COUNTRY
    FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
    TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES. THUS
    THIS FCST WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW THE GFS MOS OUTPUT. CONVERGENCE
    ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL
    RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
    FRIDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE COOLER IN MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO
    THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPECTED PCPN. HIGHS OF FRIDAY
    WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 90S
    ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
    
    THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND
    SOUTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A DRY AND
    STABLE AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
    THE LOWER DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN
    TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HILL
    COUNTRY TO LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.
    
    THE DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY
    AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE 90S IN THE AFTERNOON
    FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION. ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT WILL FOLLOW
    WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
    
    THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING
    THE LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN
    CHANCES ALSO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
    ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL
    RIDGE AND TRAVERSE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
    
    &&
    
    .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
    AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  92  68  92  67 /  20  50  10  -   -
    AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  90  66  91  64 /  20  50  10  -   -
    NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  93  69  92  67 /  20  50  20  -   -
    BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  88  64  90  66 /  40  40  10  -   -
    DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           76  93  70  90  71 /  20  40  30  -   -
    GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        75  90  64  90  66 /  40  50  10  -   -
    HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  91  68  92  68 /  40  50  20  -   -
    SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        74  91  68  91  67 /  20  50  20  -   -
    LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  91  70  91  66 /  20  50  20  -   -
    SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       74  91  70  92  69 /  20  50  20  -   -
    STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  93  70  93  69 /  40  50  20  -   -
    
    &&
    
    .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    
    01/17
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS64 KCRP 030430 AAC
    AFDCRP
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
    1130 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS.
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
    CWA CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS COMPLEX
    WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE HIGH CLOUDS
    SHOULD HELP KEEP FOG FROM FORMING...SO REMOVED MVFR VIS DUE TO FOG
    FROM THE TAFS. A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
    DOWN INTO THE HILL COUNTRY ON FRIDAY AND HELP SPARK SCATTERED
    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY INLAND.
    WITH THE FRONT SLIDING CLOSER TO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING...SHOWERS
    MAY CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA. SO
    LEFT VCSH WITH CB/S IN THE FORECAST FOR KALI AND KLRD.
    
    &&
    
    .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
    CORPUS CHRISTI    78  92  76  92  73  /  20  30  20  30  10
    VICTORIA          76  93  72  93  69  /  20  40  20  20  10
    LAREDO            80  98  74  96  76  /  10  30  40  30  10
    ALICE             75  94  74  95  72  /  10  30  30  30  10
    ROCKPORT          83  90  78  92  76  /  20  30  20  20  10
    COTULLA           75  94  72  95  71  /  40  40  30  10  10
    KINGSVILLE        77  93  75  94  73  /  10  30  20  30  10
    NAVY CORPUS       83  89  78  90  78  /  20  30  20  20  10
    
    &&
    
    .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    TX...NONE.
    GM...NONE.
    
    &&
    
    $$
    
    AK/84...AVIATION
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS64 KHGX 030446
    AFDHGX
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
    1146 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .AVIATION...
    THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR
    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID MORNING TO MID
    AFTERNOON PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT HAS AN
    UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF AND A WEAKENING UPPER LOW
    OVER NORTH TEXAS. THE WEAK RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
    HELP PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE COASTAL AREAS FROM THE NORTHEAST
    DURING AFTERNOON. ALSO...A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH AND
    HELPS SWING THE WINDS GENERALLY AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST FOR
    FRIDAY. THESE TWO FEATURES MAY LIKELY HELP END THE RAIN THREAT BY
    THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD FROM THE NORTHEAST.
    
    THINK THAT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN OVER THE FAR NORTH
    BEFORE SUNRISE AND MOST OTHER SITES AROUND SUNRISE. KSGR AND KLBX
    MAY NOT SEE SHOWERS UNTIL MID MORNING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
    UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT ONE OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATED
    BEST CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
    MID MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO GO WITH A VICINITY
    FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS.
    
    40
    
    &&
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    UPDATE...
    EVENING UPDATE BELOW.
    
    DISCUSSION...
    CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE DOWNWARD AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR
    THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
    MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND
    THUNDERSTORMS. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS...3 TO 4 INCHES...FELL
    IN A FEW SPOTS FROM HARRIS COUNTY TO AUSTIN COUNTY TO COLORADO
    COUNTY. A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL
    CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. 00Z SOUNDINGS
    SHOW SLIGHTLY LOWER PW VALUES AT CRP AND A SLIGHT INCREASE AT LCH.
    PW VALUES ARE RIGHT AROUND 2.00 INCHES. THE FRONT WILL HAVE DECENT
    DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE 18Z GFS IS MORE
    ROBUST WITH RAINFALL MATCHING UP A BIT BETTER WITH THE 12Z ECMWF
    AND 12Z NAM. UPPER LEVELS WINDS ARE DIVERGENT AND SE TX WILL LIE
    IN A WEAK RRQ. THINK RAIN CHANCES MIGHT NEED TO BE BUMPED UPWARD.
    AS FOR TONIGHT...WILL TWEAK SKY GRIDS BUT OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
    FORECAST HAS THINGS COVERED WELL. 43
    
    &&
    
    .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
    COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  91  67  90  65 /  30  30  20  10  10
    HOUSTON (IAH)              76  92  71  92  66 /  20  50  20  10  10
    GALVESTON (GLS)            81  90  77  89  75 /  20  40  20  10  10
    
    &&
    
    .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    TX...NONE.
    GM...NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    
    DISCUSSION...38
    AVIATION/MARINE...40
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS64 KAMA 030454 AAD
    AFDAMA
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
    1154 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .AVIATION...
    VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
    REGION.
    
    ANDRADE
    
    &&
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    UPDATE...
    FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO REMOVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE
    REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES
    THIS EVENING...TAKING WITH IT THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AIR
    IS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH DEWPOINTS ALL
    READY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S. MINOR EDITS WERE MADE TO LOWER THE
    DEWPOINTS AND LOW TEMPS ESP ACROSS THE NORTHERN SPOTS. NO FURTHER
    UPDATES PLANNED ATTM.
    
    PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    UPDATE...
    SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM
    COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY AS FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED THE AREA. WILL
    LEAVE POPS ALONE ATTM BUT WILL MOST LIKELY TRIM/REMOVE THEM IN
    ANOTHER UPDATED LATER THIS EVENING.
    
    TAB
    
    PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    AVIATION...
    SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TSTMS ARE WELL E AND S OF ALL TAF
    SITES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY MID EVENING...AND REMAIN
    GENERALLY LIGHT REST OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24
    HOURS.
    
    ANDRADE
    
    PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    DISCUSSION...
    THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
    THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE. THEREFORE...HAVE TRIMED BACK TO
    POPS TO INCLUDE ONLY THE AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THERE IS A SEVERE
    THREAT FOR ANY AREAS SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...THUS THERE IS A SEVERE
    THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY. THE CLEARING SKIES...DRY
    AIR ADVECTION...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE A GOOD SET UP FOR
    RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THUS UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR MIN
    TEMPS TONIGHT.
    
    FOR THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH DIGGING
    SOUTH ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. AS
    A RESULT...EXPECT A MUCH QUICKER WARM UP. THEREFORE...WENT NEAR OR
    ABOVE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY.
    
    NEXT WEEK...THE GFS HAS TRENDED CLOSER TIO THE ECMWF...SHOWING THE
    PLUME OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN
    PANHANDLES...AS COMPARED TO THE FURTHER WEST SOLUTION IT SHOWED AT
    THE 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH
    AND POSSIBLY WEAK STATIONARY FRONT REMAINING GENERALLY OVER THE
    WESTERN PANHANDLES. CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITIONS OF
    BOTH FEATURES...HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
    THURSDAY TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES.
    OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
    
    SJOHNSON
    
    FIRE WEATHER...
    THE DRIER AIR THAT WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
    WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW 15
    PERCENT TOMORROW. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER
    CONCERNS MINIMAL. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS
    A SURFACE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH...BRINGING DRY AND WARM DOWNSLOPING
    SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...ON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
    DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT AND WINDS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 15 MPH. CHANCES
    OF RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER WILL REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FMID WEEK.
    
    SJOHNSON
    
    &&
    
    .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    TX...NONE.
    OK...NONE.
    
    &&
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS64 KLUB 030455
    AFDLUB
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
    1155 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .AVIATION...
    CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF BOTH TERMINALS AND NO
    FURTHER STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY
    WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ALL NIGHT AND SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
    WITH A FINE DAY IN STORE. THERE IS SOME RISK OF A LOW VFR DECK OF
    CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EVIDENT NE OF KLBB ON 11-3.9 UM IMAGERY.
    AT THIS POINT...SUSPECT THE CIGS WILL NOT DROP TO MVFR...
    BUT...ALAS...WITH THE RAINFALL THIS EVENING...IT IS POSSIBLE. 26
    
    &&
    
    
    PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    SHORT TERM...
    THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS VALID...AND THE CURRENTLY PLEASANT
    WEATHER ON THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY DURING
    THE NEXT 1-4 HOURS.
    
    CUMULUS FIELDS/INCIPIENT THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE
    PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND IN
    VICINITY OF THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT/FRONT NEAR PALO DURO/TULE
    CANYONS. OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN ARE THE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
    TROUGH/DRYLINE ATOP A DEEPLY MIXED PBL AND 40-50 DEGREE TEMP/TD
    SPREADS. STRONG PULSE-TYPE UPDRAFTS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL
    CERTAINLY POSE A RISK OF DOWNBURSTS/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.
    OTHERWISE...ALL SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STORMS
    WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD
    ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS DISCUSSED
    IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT OF
    DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD STRONG COLD POOLS CONGEAL GIVEN THE DEEPLY
    MIXED AND HIGHLY UNSTABLE PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT.
    
    IN THE AMBIENT POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...3-4MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES
    HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE DAY...DESPITE CURRENT DIURNAL PRESSURE
    MINIMUM. AS SUCH...OBSERVED WIND SPEEDS WITHIN A NARROW ZONE OF
    TIGHT MSLP GRADIENTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT NOW RANGE FROM 25
    TO 30 KT. RUC AND NAM PROGGED GRADIENT/SURFACE WINDS AOA 30KT AND
    850MB WINDS 40-50KT CONTINUE TO ARGUE FOR AT LEAST TRANSIENT/BRIEF
    ADVISORY LEVEL WIND SPEEDS /25-35 MPH RANGE/ OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES
    LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.
    
    BY SUNRISE...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PROGRESSED WELL SOUTH TOWARD THE
    INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR...AND LINGERING SHOWERS/CONVECTION WILL BE
    ENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES.
    
    LONG TERM...
    LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF
    NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
    CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
    THE NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A TROUGH DIVING DOWN INTO THE
    SOUTHWEST US FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FLOW WILL TURN
    SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE DRAWING MID AND UPPER LEVEL
    MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WITH LIFT ALSO SPREADING OVER THE AREA
    AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THERE COULD BE SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF
    CONVECTION AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE MODELS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
    REMAINS LOW IN ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. JDV
    
    &&
    
    .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
    FRIONA        94  53  79  51  85 /  30  20   0   0   0
    TULIA         96  57  78  50  83 /  40  20   0   0   0
    PLAINVIEW     97  58  77  52  84 /  30  20   0   0   0
    LEVELLAND     97  59  78  52  86 /  30  30  10   0   0
    LUBBOCK       99  60  79  55  85 /  30  30  10   0   0
    DENVER CITY   97  60  80  55  86 /  30  50  10   0   0
    BROWNFIELD    95  61  80  55  87 /  20  40  10   0   0
    CHILDRESS     99  60  83  55  86 /  30  30   0   0   0
    SPUR          96  63  80  57  87 /  20  40  10   0   0
    ASPERMONT    101  65  83  60  87 /  10  60  10   0   0
    
    &&
    
    .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    
    99/99/26
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS64 KSJT 030538 AAB
    AFDSJT
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
    1238 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010
    
    .UPDATE...
    SEE AVIATION SECTION.
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...
    A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRSSING
    SOUTH INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. LEADING EDGE
    TO REACH THE KSJT TERMINAL BY 0630Z...AND KBBD BY 07Z. THE LEADING
    EDGE WILL BE MARKED BY GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
    EXPECTED IN THE HEAVY RAIN WHICH ACCOMPANIES THE THUNDERSTORMS.
    THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD AND SHOULD REACH THE
    INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR BEFORE 10Z. A POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUD
    FIELD WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH
    MVFR CEILINGS. CLOUD CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB INTO THE
    VFR CATEGORY BY LATE MORNING. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL DECREASE
    FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS
    INTO THE AREA. NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTHEAST
    ON FRIDAY.
    
    &&
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    UPDATE...
    SEE AVIATION SECTION.
    
    AVIATION...
    WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH LATE EVENING.
    INCLUDING CB CLOUD GROUPS IN THE AREA TAFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
    TOO LOW THAT THE STORMS WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT ANY OF TERMINALS.
    COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BY MIDNIGHT.
    THE FRONT SHOULD REACH INTERSTATE 10 BY 10Z FRIDAY. A BAND OF
    THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AT LEAST ACROSS THE
    NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MVFR TO LOCALIZED
    IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH
    ACCOMPANIES THE STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. WIND WILL
    SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND A POST-FRONTAL
    LOW CLOUD FIELD WILL ADVANCE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
    AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW CLOUD FIELD WILL LIKELY HAVE
    MVFR CEILINGS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...CLOUD
    COVERAGE WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY
    FRIDAY...AS DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.
    
    PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    SHORT TERM...
    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
    THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SAN ANGELO TO JUNCTION...FROM
    EARLIER CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN CENTRAL TEXAS. DUE TO THEIR SLOW
    MOVEMENT...THE MAIN THREATS FROM EARLY STORMS ARE LOCALLY HEAVY
    RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. THE STORMS ARE DIURNAL AND
    SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
    
    MAIN WEATHER THREAT STILL TO COME TONIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT 50
    MILES SOUTH OF AMARILLO WILL MOVE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
    OVERNIGHT. NAM BRINGS FRONT JUST NORTH OF A FISHER AND HASKELL
    COUNTIES AROUND 10 PM...ALONG I-20 AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN ALONG A
    SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD LINE 4 AM. THERE IS LOT OF MOISTURE
    AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
    INDICATES A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20.
    BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THIS EVENING...MAINLY
    ACROSS FISHER... HASKELL...AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES...WITH THREAT
    TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. STORM DEVELOPMENT
    WILL BE MAINLY ALONG THE FRONT AND POST FRONTAL.
    
    DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
    THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CONCHO VALLEY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE
    SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
    
    LONG TERM...
    BY FRIDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE
    FORECAST AREA AS WILL ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL. LOOKING FOR AN
    UNSEASONABLY COOL START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH MORNING LOWS
    IN THE 50S ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING
    GENERALLY TO THE UPPER 80S. THE 500MB HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED
    OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE FORECAST
    AREA REMAINING DRY AND UNDER A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
    
    THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
    UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...DISPLACING
    THE UPPER HIGH TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE
    RESULTING MOISTURE FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
    HIGH INTO PRIMARILY THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS...WE WILL SEE THE
    CHANCE OF RAINFALL RETURNING TO THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY. THE CHANCE
    OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS
    THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BUILDS FURTHER WEST
    ALONG THE GULF COASTAL STATES TOWARD TEXAS. AS EAST AND CENTRAL
    TEXAS DRY OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED...THE MONSOON RAINS
    WILL RETURN TO EXTREME WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IN
    ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL
    ROCKIES.
    
    &&
    
    .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
    ABILENE 	 56  87  64  93  68 /   0  10  10  10  10
    SAN ANGELO 	 57  88  64  92  67 /  10  10  10  10  10
    JUNCTION 	 59  90  63  93  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
    
    &&
    
    .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS64 KMAF 030547
    AFDMAF
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
    1247 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010
    
    .DISCUSSION...
    SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...
    COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH MAF AND INK TAF ISSUANCE AND WILL BE
    THROUGH PEQ AND FST BY 08Z. WINDS WILL GUST OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
    TO NEAR 30KTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT THEN SETTLE TO A 15 TO
    25KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
    SCATTERED SO CONFIDENCE IN PLACE AND TIMING IS FAIRLY LOW. ONLY
    WENT WITH TEMPO AT MAF AND INK AND WILL ADD TO ANY OTHER TAF SITES
    IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES. THERE IS A THREAT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
    FROM 09-15Z BUT DID NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN FM GROUP. SKIES
    WILL SCATTER LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
    SUBSIDING AND VEERING TO A MORE EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
    
    HENNIG
    
    &&
    
    .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    NM...NONE.
    TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
         ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
    
    
    &&
    
    $$
    
    99
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS64 KEPZ 022119
    AFDEPZ
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
    315 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .SYNOPSIS...
    HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE BORDERLAND WILL KEEP THE WEATHER
    PATTERN RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
    THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
    FRONT ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL COOL
    DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL. BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY INCREASING
    SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STREAM TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE AREA.
    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT
    MOSTLY EAST OF DEMING.
    
    &&
    
    .DISCUSSION...
    UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY WITH
    GENERALLY FEW CLOUDS OR RAIN. A COLD FRONT NOW INTO NORTHEAST NEW
    MEXICO WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD
    REACH THE SAC MOUNTAINS MID EVENING AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
    BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER...AND THEN TO THE ARIZONA BORDER
    BY AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS
    RELATIVELY STABLE AND DRY AT LOW LEVELS. FAIR AMOUNT OF CU...MAINLY
    OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON BUT THAT SHOULD BE
    ABOUT IT. AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS REGIME...DEW POINTS WILL
    INCREASE AND FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT...SO EXPECT ISOLATED
    THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
    THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
    
    TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ABOUT 10-13 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...SO DESPITE
    GOOD COLD ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION ALOFT...LOW LEVEL
    STABILIZATION SHOULD INHIBIT MOST CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. WEEKEND
    SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING BACK TO
    NEAR NORMAL.
    
    GFS ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
    MONDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
    AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ECMWF SWEEPS THE MOISTURE
    PLUME THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST AS A BIT BETTER DEFINED UPPER SYSTEM
    DRIVES IT EASTWARD. GFS IS LESS DEFINED WITH UPPER ENERGY AND HENCE
    MOISTURE WILL STREAM UP PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW. THIS MEANS A BIT
    LONGER DURATION WITH THE GFS...BUT WITH BEST...OR ANY...CHANCE OF
    RAIN MAINLY EAST OF DEMING.
    
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...VALID 03/00Z-04/00Z...
    A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH REGION OVERNIGHT REACHING KTCS
    AROUND 06Z AND REMAINING TERMINALS AROUND 08Z-09Z. E TO NE WINDS OF
    15G25KTS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT THROUGH 15Z-18Z BEFORE
    SLOWLY TAPERING OFF. ISOLD TS WITH ISOLD MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AFT
    09Z...MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN NM AND FAR W TX.
    &&
    
    .FIRE WEATHER...
    COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS
    AROUND TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE
    MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT
    OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON
    FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BUT MINIMUM
    RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE. A 3-5 DEGREE
    WARMUP EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A DIGGING
    TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
    U.S. WILL HELP TO BRING A SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR
    THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL HELP TO COOL TEMPERATURES BACK
    INTO THE 80S WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
    
    &&
    
    .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
    EL PASO                 69  87  65  89  67 /  20  10  10  10  10
    SIERRA BLANCA TX        61  84  58  89  59 /  30  10  10  10  10
    LAS CRUCES              66  86  62  89  64 /  20  10  10  10  10
    ALAMOGORDO              62  85  58  88  60 /  20  10  10  10  10
    CLOUDCROFT              46  63  39  68  43 /  30  10  10  10  10
    TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   63  84  60  86  61 /  20  10  10  10  10
    SILVER CITY             58  78  54  80  55 /  20  10  10  10  10
    DEMING                  64  87  60  89  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
    LORDSBURG               64  87  60  89  62 /  20  10  10  10  10
    
    &&
    
    .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    NM...NONE.
    TX...NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    
    HEFNER/GRZYWACZ
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS64 KLCH 030453
    AFDLCH
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
    1153 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .DISCUSSION...
    FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE GFS GLOBAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE
    NAM REGIONAL GUIDANCE IN DEPICTING A MODEST ADVECTIVE MOISTENING
    ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. WITH THE OVERNIGHT
    BECALMING OF THE WINDS...LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
    SOUTHEAST TEXAS. BRIEF IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN.
    
    IN THE SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH CHICAGO THROUGH
    ST. LOUIS THROUGH LUBBOCK TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL
    MOVE SOUTH AND EAST REACHING SHREVEPORT BY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY...
    BEFORE REACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY EARLY EVENING FRIDAY.
    
    THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SET OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
    AFTERNOON HOURS.
    
    &&
    
    .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    UPDATE...RADAR NOW SHOWING FCST AREA DOWN TO JUST A FEW PINPOINT SHOWERS
    OVER VERNON PARISH. MAIN RAINS FOCUSED ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
    NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST NAM
    SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST
    TEXAS LATER TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THAT
    AREA. OTHERWISE GRIDS/ZONES REMAIN THE SAME.
    
    MARCOTTE
    
    PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    AVIATION...
    
    NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EMANATING AWAY FROM THEIR PARENT
    THUNDERSTORMS SUGGEST THAT MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE COMING
    TO AN END WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
    
    FOR THIS EVENING...THE NAM REGIONAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MODEST
    ADVECTIVE MOISTENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
    LOUISIANA. WITH THE LATE EVENING RELAXING OF THE WINDS...LOW
    CLOUDS MAY FORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. BRIEF IFR
    CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN.
    
    IN THE SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH CHICAGO THROUGH
    ST. LOUIS THROUGH LUBBOCK TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL
    MOVE SOUTH AND EAST REACHING SHREVEPORT BY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY...
    BEFORE REACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY EARLY EVENING FRIDAY.
    
    THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SET OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
    AFTERNOON HOURS.
    
    TRARES
    
    PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    DISCUSSION...
    
    RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
    THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
    AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FORT POLK TO
    MORGAN CITY. DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE WHERE SURFACE OBS
    SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S HAS KEPT CONVECTION AT BAY. WATER VAPOR
    IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
    CONUS...WITH SURFACE OBS INDICATING A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT FOR
    EARLY SEPTEMBER STRETCHING FROM SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY TO NORTH OF
    LUBBOCK.
    
    MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BARREL SOUTHWARD AND
    REACH OUR CWA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED
    CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...GFS
    INDICATES MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND WILL INDICATE
    A BIT HIGHER COVERAGE OF POPS IN NORTHERN ZONES. FRONT TO CONTINUE
    SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE STALLING...WITH MODELS
    DEPICTING A VERY DRY AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE
    50S FILTERING ACROSS THE AREA. GFS INDICATES PWATS WILL FALL TO
    NEAR 1 INCH OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AND EVEN BELOW 0.5 INCHES ACROSS
    NORTHERN ZONES BY SATURDAY...WITH MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW
    TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR ALL LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY
    MORNING. HAVE ONCE AGAIN NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD OVER THE
    WEEKEND BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS...THESE WILL
    BE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SEEN IN THE CWA SINCE MAY.
    
    SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A RAPID AIRMASS
    CHANGE AS A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS
    BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5 INCHES MOVES OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE
    WESTERN GULF...WITH PWATS RISING TO WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES FOR ALL
    ZONES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE SHOWN A RETURN TO CLIMO
    TEMPS AND POPS BEGINNING ON LABOR DAY. WITH A STRONG DEEP LAYER
    HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AS
    WELL...PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL PROVIDE FOR
    TYPICAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND DIURNAL
    SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
    FORECAST PERIOD.
    
    MARINE...
    
    LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
    TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
    MEXICO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY
    NIGHT...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY.
    EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH BACK INTO
    THE REGION...BRINGING A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN
    SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
    
    &&
    
    .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
    KLCH  75  93  70  91  66 /  20  20  20  10  10
    KBPT  76  93  71  91  66 /  20  20  20  10  10
    KAEX  72  94  65  90  60 /  10  20  10   0   0
    KLFT  74  93  70  91  66 /  20  20  20  10  10
    
    &&
    
    .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    LA...NONE.
    TX...NONE.
    GM...NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FXUS64 KBRO 030202
    AFDBRO
    
    AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
    830 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 7 AM SATURDAY/...A COUPLE OF MINOR
    TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPDATE THIS EVENING. REMOVED MENTION
    OF PCPN FOR MOST INLAND LOCALES AS SEA BREEZE TYPE SHOWERS FROM
    EARLIER TODAY HAVE DIMINISHED. WILL BE LEFT WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY
    CLOUDY SKY OVRNGT INTO FRI MRNG. MID LVL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE
    FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH MID LVL LOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN GULF OF
    MEXICO. WEAKNESS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN CENTRAL
    TX MOVG SWD WITH ASSOC CONV ACROSS HILL COUNTRY THIS EVE DUE TO
    OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONV IN NORTHERN TX. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
    ACROSS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO
    PROGRESS SWD THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS GETTING CLOSE TO IF NOT ENTERING
    THE NORTHERN FA LATE IN THE PERIOD OR BEGINNING OF LONG TERM PERIOD.
    SHOWERS AND TSTMS INCREASE THRU THE DAYTIME FRI ACROSS THE CWA AS
    FRONT REMAINS POISED TO THE NORTH WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND
    APPROACH OF MID LVL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE TEMPERATURE
    PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE READINGS AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
    THRU THE PERIOD.
    &&
    
    .LONG TERM /7 AM SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
    STALL JUST TO THE NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY INCREASING
    THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
    NEXT WEEK.  THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA
    BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CAUSING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR
    THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY
    THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.
    WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK EXPECT
    ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN.  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO
    MODERATE FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BECOMING
    SOUTHEAST BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
    &&
    
    
    .MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH 7 AM SATURDAY...THE 8 PM OBSERVATION FROM
    BUOY020 INDICATED WINDS WERE EAST AROUND 14 KTS AND SEAS WERE AROUND
    3 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL
    CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LWR TX COASTAL WATERS THRU THE SHORT
    TERM FORECAST PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
    WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL CONTINUE TO
    PROVIDE AND EASTERLY LLV FLOW OVRNGT INTO FRI. A WEAK COLD FRONT
    APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW LOW LVL WINDS TO BECOME MORE
    NORTHEAST WITH TIME BY FRI NGT INTO EARLY SAT. THIS SFC FEATURE
    COMBINED WITH A MID LVL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PERIODIC
    CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THRU THE PERIOD.
    HOWEVER...OVERALL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LIGHT
    TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THRU EARLY SAT.
    
    7 AM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
    MARINE AREAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS FROM THE
    SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS
    WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT
    WEEK. LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
    THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREAS SATURDAY
    THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH
    BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
    &&
    
    .AVIATION...THE 3 LOCAL TAF SITES ARE REPORTING CLEAR SKIES WITH A
    LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE BREEZE THIS EVENING. FAIRLY QUIET
    CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVRNGT UNDERNEATH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
    SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. A FEW STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS COULD BE
    POSSIBLE AROUND KBRO EARLY IN THE MRNG WITH GENERAL SHOWER CHANCES
    INCREASING BY MID TO LATE MRNG ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
    WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE THRU FRI AFTN. LIGHT WINDS FRI
    MRNG  WILL BECOME MODERATE FROM THE E TO NE THRU THE DAY. VFR
    CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD WITH SCT TO BKN CU DECKS
    DEVELOPING BY LATE MRNG AND PERSISTING THRU LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE.
    &&
    
    .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    TX...NONE.
    GM...NONE.
    &&
    
    $$
    
    THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
    HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE
    
    57/65
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS44 KFWD 030401
    HWOFWD
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
    1101 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-040415-
    MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
    HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
    ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
    JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
    FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
    LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
    1101 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
    
    THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
    TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT CLOUD TO
    GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
    
    THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY FOR AREAS
    SOUTH
    OF INTERSTATE 20. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND
    SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
    
    THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
    INTERSTATE 20 ON LABOR DAY...AND AREA WIDE TUESDAY THROUGH
    WEDNESDAY.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS44 KSHV 021721
    HWOSHV
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
    1221 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072-LAZ001>003-010-017-OKZ077-TXZ096-097-
    108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-031730-
    SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
    COLUMBIA-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-DE SOTO-SABINE LA-MCCURTAIN-
    RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-
    MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-
    SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
    1221 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
    ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND FOR DEEP EAST
    AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.
    
    .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
    WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS
    A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS OVER THE AREA. STRONGER
    STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO 40 TO 50 MPH
    ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...THEN DIMINISHING THIS EVENING
    WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.
    
    HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL STRONGER AREA OF SHOWERS AND
    THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH
    CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL BE AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
    SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING ACROSS OKLAHOMA. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
    WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER OKLAHOMA...AS THE
    THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT
    AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT STILL GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL
    WILL BE POSSIBLE.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
    ISOLATED...TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
    POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS
    FRIDAY...AS THE COOL FRONT PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
    
    HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKY WARN NETWORKS...AND HAM
    RADIO OPERATORS...SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
    
    $$
    
    ARZ073-LAZ004>006-011>014-018>022-031730-
    UNION AR-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-UNION LA-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-
    OUACHITA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-
    1221 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
    ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.
    
    .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
    TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM EL DORADO TO NATCHITOCHES AND POINTS
    EAST...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS
    THE AREA. HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
    ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
    POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
    FRIDAY...AS A COOL FRONT PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
    HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
    
    $$
    
    24
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS44 KOUN 030513
    HWOOUN
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
    1213 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010
    
    OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031200-
    HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
    ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
    WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
    POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
    COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
    CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
    WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
    1213 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
    CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
    
    .DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...
    
    THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
    NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
    
    DISCUSSION...
    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
    OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WITH CHANCES DECREASING
    WITH TIME. THE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATED AND
    INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
    BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
    
    PROBABILITY TABLE...
    VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY SEP 3.
    PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
                  NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
    PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
    
    OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
    NONE.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
    
    THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
    A DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD
    FRONT...KEEPING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
    MOISTURE WILL THEN RETURN...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
    THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
    
    OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
    NONE.
    
    THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT
    5 AM FRIDAY. UNSCHEDULED UPDATES MAY ALSO BE ISSUED.
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS44 KEWX 020940
    HWOEWX
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
    440 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-031100-
    LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
    GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
    MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
    FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
    440 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
    
    .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .DAY TWO FRIDAY...
    
    THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT FRIDAY.
    A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
    FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
    
    .DAYS THREE THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS44 KCRP 020923
    HWOCRP
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
    423 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-030930-
    BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS-
    BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR-
    COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM-
    COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
    20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
    WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
    60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
    JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
    423 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE
    TEXAS COASTAL WATERS.
    
    .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
    
    AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES CAN BE
    EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE
    HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 110 DEGREES AT TIMES.
    
    ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
    THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS
    EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NO
    ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
    WILL RETURN BY MONDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH NO
    SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
    MAINLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 WILL
    RETURN TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
    
    $$
    
    TE/GW
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS44 KHGX 021145
    HWOHGX
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
    645 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-031145-
    AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
    GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
    MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
    WHARTON-
    645 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
    
    .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
    
    THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT
    IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES TODAY. PERSONS WHO
    WILL BE OUTDOORS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD TAKE FREQUENT
    BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR AIR CONDITIONING. DO NOT LEAVE CHILDREN OR
    PETS UNATTENDED FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME IN VEHICLES.
    
    SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS DAYTIME HEATING
    INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. GUSTY WINDS...
    CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
    FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH THREE...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
    
    SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
    WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD-TO-
    GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
    THE STRONGEST STORMS.
    
    .DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS44 KAMA 030346 AAB
    HWOAMA
    
    TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
    1045 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-031100-
    ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH-
    DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE-
    OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER-
    1045 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
    PANHANDLES.
    
    .DAY ONE...
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
    
    THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
    OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE TEXAS
    PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE TUESDAY THROUGH
    THURSDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
    SEVERE LEVELS AT THIS TIME.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
    
    $$
    
    ANDRADE
    
    ANDRADE
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS44 KLUB 030227
    HWOLUB
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
    927 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    TXZ021>044-040230-
    PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
    FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
    YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
    927 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
    PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT
    
    SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
    SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
    MORNING. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
    WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS44 KSJT 021953
    HWOSJT
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
    253 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
    140-154-155-168>170-032000-
    FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
    CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-
    TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
    MASON-
    253 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
    TEXAS.
    
    .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
    
    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO
    50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
    
    THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH
    ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE NORTH OF
    INTERSTATE 20. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS EXCEEDING
    60 MPH AND DEADLY LIGHTNING. ALSO...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
    POSSIBLE.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    WE MAY NEED TO ACTIVATE SPOTTERS THIS EVENING IN THE BIG COUNTRY.
    
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS44 KMAF 021915
    HWOMAF
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
    215 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
    079>082-258-031915-
    GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
    NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
    DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
    VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
    LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
    DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
    BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
    215 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 /115 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010/
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW
    MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS.
    
    .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
    
    A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
    THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME
    SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
    PERMIAN BASIN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY
    WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
    
    A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
    WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE LIKELY FOR
    GAPS AND PASSES. WINDS MAY REACH UP TO 30 MPH IN PORTIONS OF
    SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    
    THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
    ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN... SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO... AND THE UPPER
    TRANS PECOS.
    
    $$
    THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
    AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
    MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
    HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS44 KEPZ 021718
    HWOEPZ
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
    1112 AM MDT THU SEP 2  2010
    
    NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-031715-
    SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION-
    TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-
    SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-
    SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH-
    1112 AM MDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
    NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS.
    
    .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
    ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN MAINLY HUDPSETH COUNTY AND
    EASTERN OTERO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO 50
    MPH AND HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
    ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
    SHOULD BE LIMITED MOSTLY TO MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
    POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EAST OF DEMING.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR FLOODING TO
    LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND THIS OFFICE.
    
    $$
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS44 KLCH 020944
    HWOLCH
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
    444 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-
    TXZ180>182-201-215-216-031000-
    SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
    COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
    COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
    COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
    LA OUT 20 NM-
    WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
    TO 60 NM-
    WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
    20 NM TO 60 NM-
    WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
    EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
    ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
    LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
    LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
    444 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
    GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
    SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
    
    .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
    A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND
    TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS HIGH
    PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
    SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
    A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON
    AND EVENING...WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING IT TO PRODUCE
    WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH
    DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS FORECAST TO FILTER OVER THE REGION FOR THE
    WEEKEND...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EACH MORNING FOR MOST
    OF THE AREA. AFTER THE DRY WEEKEND...ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS FOR
    EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN OF SMALL RAIN CHANCES. NO HAZARDOUS
    WEATHER IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED
    
    $$
    
    25
    
    
    
    
  • FLUS44 KBRO 030240 AAA
    HWOBRO
    
    HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
    940 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-031100-
    LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO-
    LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT
    MANSFIELD TX-
    LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX-
    COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM-
    COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM-
    WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
    60 NM-
    WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO
    60 NM-ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-
    INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
    940 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
    
    THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THE GULF
    OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE.
    
    .DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
    
    NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
    
    .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
    
    SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
    
    $$