ACUS01 KWNS 030512 SWODY1 SPC AC 030511 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 AM CDT FRI SEP 03 2010 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... PROGRESSIVE NRN-STREAM PATTERN FCST TO CONTINUE ALOFT THROUGH PERIOD...LED BY STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ANALYZED SWD FROM LOW OVER NRN MN. ASSOCIATED MID-UPPER CYCLONE IS FCST TO DEEPEN SOMEWHAT...ENLARGE...AND MOVE EWD TO ENEWD ACROSS NRN ONT THROUGH PERIOD. MEANWHILE TRAILING TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EWD TO POSITION OVER LH...CENTRAL OH...AND EXTREME WRN NC BY 4/12Z. AS THIS OCCURS...RELATED STG COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED ATTM FROM WRN LOWER MI ACROSS SRN IL...NRN AR...SERN OK...W-CENTRAL TX -- WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH OH VALLEY...AND SEWD OVER CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...LOWER MS VALLEY AND S TX. ...NRN APPALACHIANS TO S TX... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS IN CLUSTERS AND SMALL BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INVOF FRONTAL ZONE...PRIMARILY DURING AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. NARROW CORRIDOR OF FAVORABLE MOISTURE/BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING PERIOD OF STRONGEST HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT FROM UPPER OH VALLEY REGION SWWD ACROSS LOWER MS VALLEY...WITH RELATIVELY WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMITING BOTH DEPTH AND MAGNITUDE OF BUOYANCY. THEREFORE...DURATION OF THUNDER POTENTIAL WILL BE RELATIVELY BRIEF IN THAT CORRIDOR. FARTHER SW ACROSS W GULF COASTAL PLAIN TO RIO GRANDE VALLEY...SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER SFC HEATING AND SFC DEW POINTS LOW-MID 70S F WILL BOOST MLCAPE TO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE IN PREFRONTAL AIR MASS. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP EITHER IN FRONTAL ZONE OR ALONG PREFRONTAL SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE LIGHT...ENELY-NELY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT WHICH WILL ACT TO LIMIT BOTH CONVERGENCE AND VERTICAL SHEAR. WHILE A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE STG GUSTS OR SUB-SVR HAIL...SVR POTENTIAL ATTM APPEARS TOO WEAK AND CONDITIONAL TO DRAW AREA OF AOA 5% UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES. ..EDWARDS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/03/2010
ACUS02 KWNS 030601 SWODY2 SPC AC 030600 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0100 AM CDT FRI SEP 03 2010 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EASTWARD OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE ADJACENT GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY...WHILE AN ADDITIONAL UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES FROM THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BY LATE SATURDAY. THE PRESENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL/DRIER CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL KEEP MOST CONUS LOCALES THUNDER-FREE. SOME TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES VICINITY...WITH TSTMS /SOME STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE/ ALSO INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF MT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ...MT... AHEAD OF THE DIGGING PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER TROUGH...INFLUENCE OF UPPER JET LEFT EXIT REGION...AND MODEST MOISTURE IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH/EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT...INITIALLY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST MT SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SHOULD TEMPER THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK...00Z NAM/GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS REFLECT A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH WEAK CAPE /UP TO 500 J PER KG SBCAPE/ AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING FLOW NEAR/ABOVE THE TOP OF THE FORECAST MIXED LAYER. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD YIELD SOME TSTMS CAPABLE OF STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ..GUYER.. 09/03/2010
ACUS03 KWNS 020727 SWODY3 SPC AC 020726 DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0226 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2010 VALID 041200Z - 051200Z ...SYNOPSIS... WITHIN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES...MODELS INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH...AS ONE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES INLAND AND EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...WHILE ANOTHER IMPULSE DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AT THE SAME TIME ...THE REMNANTS OF EARL LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE CANADIAN MARITMES...AS A SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE ...WITHIN BROADER SCALE TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN STATES... RAPIDLY LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR AND THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHILE WEAK MOISTENING WITHIN A LEE SURFACE TROUGH ALSO CONTRIBUTES TO LOW THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL COOLING/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN LOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SATURDAY ACROSS MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALSO APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST...LIMITED TO A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND ROCKIES... PERHAPS A BIT GREATER COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL IDAHO THROUGH MONTANA. ...MONTANA... LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY APPEARS THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR CONCERNING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SATURDAY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PROGGED TO BECOME RATHER STEEP...AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL...AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW TAKES ON AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BENEATH STRENGTHENING WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST ONE OR TWO STRONG/SEVERE STORMS BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...MAINLY WHERE AN UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA ENHANCES BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING. ..KERR.. 09/02/2010
ACUS48 KWNS 020859 SWOD48 SPC AC 020858 DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0358 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2010 VALID 051200Z - 101200Z ...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SVR RISK AREA... LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE A GENERAL TREND TOWARD PERSISTENT TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN STATES...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IMPULSES EMERGING FROM IT AND SUPPORTING CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS. THE FIRST IN THE SERIES STILL APPEARS LIKELY TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON LABOR DAY...WHEN MOISTURE RETURN PROBABLY WILL BE RATHER WEAK RELATIVE TO THE WARMTH OF THE CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION. EVEN SO...THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD OTHERWISE BE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT...GIVEN FAVORABLY TIMED MID/UPPER FORCING ACROSS A POTENTIALLY STRONGLY HEATED AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA. 02/00Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS APPEAR QUICKER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM THAN PRIOR RUNS...AND IT IS STILL NOT CERTAIN THAT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL MEET MINIMUM THRESHOLDS FOR DELINEATING A SEVERE RISK AREA AT THE DAY 5 TIME FRAME. THEREAFTER...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT IMPULSE...WHICH COULD PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY NEXT THURSDAY...SHOULD BE MORE FAVORABLE. BUT THE SPREAD AMONG MODEL DATA CONCERNING THIS FEATURE BECOMES TOO LARGE TO CONFIDENTLY ASSESS THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..KERR.. 09/02/2010
FXUS63 KDVN 022006 AFDDVN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 306 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT AT 19Z EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM JUST WEST OF LSE THROUGH ALO TO NEAR OTM. BEHIND THIS FRONT...AREA RADARS INDICATED SCATTERED AND MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WIDESPREAD IN A ROUGHLY 40 MILE WIDE AXIS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER FAR NORTHEAST IOWA...APPEARING ALONG THE EDGE OF A 8 DEG C CAP AT H7 AND WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT HAS REACHED THE AIRMASS WITH CAPES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN IA AND NW IL. MESOANALYSIS TRENDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS INDICATED THIS THERMAL RIDGE ALOFT...THAT HAS SO FAR SUPPRESSED CONVECTION...FLATTENING AND GETTING NUDGED EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE MO RIVER. WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES IN NW IA WERE IN THE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...WHILE OUT AHEAD 70S TO LOWER 80S WERE COMMON IN THE LOCAL AREA WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... INITIAL CONCERN IS EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO TEMPERATURES AS CANADIAN AIRMASS FLOODS INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE FRONT...AND STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING AND MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OUT WEST REACHES THE BETTER INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPED OVER FORECAST AREA TODAY...WILL EXPECT MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SO FAR...CELLS HAVE BEEN RATHER ISOLATED...BUT MAY SEE A MORE LINEAR MODE DEVELOP WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED CELLS...SUCH AS THOSE RECENTLY FORMING CLOSER TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA MAY ALSO HAVE A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT. RATHER FAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS SHOULD PRECLUDE A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. BASED ON CURRENT TIMING...THE BULK OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MS RIVER BY 00Z AND HAVE LOW POPS THERE CONFINED TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING. COLD ADVECTION W-NW WINDS COMMENCE TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AND KEPT HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...CONSISTENT WITH MIXING TO AT LEAST H8. WILL HAVE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING UPPER FLOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE AND INCOMING DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY. FOR TONIGHT...STAYED CLOSER TO GUIDANCE BLEND IN THE 50S...AS SUPPORTED BY INCOMING DEWPOINTS AND UPSTREAM LOWS THIS MORNING. ..SHEETS.. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED IN STRONG NW FLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROF SETS UP OVER THE NERN U.S. THE ECMWF IS STILL BRINGING SOME CHILLY H8 TEMPS INTO THE REGION WITH THE +3C H8 ISOTHERM VERY CLOSE TO THE NERN CWFA SATURDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE FOR SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND HIGHS MID 60S TO MID 70S. FOR SUNDAY EVEN THOUGH THE H8 THERMAL TROF WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE MORNING...SO DROPPED MINS DOWN SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS EXPECTED LOWS. RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE AREA SO TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WARM MOIST AIR TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH MODELS STILL POINTING TOWARD SOME WAA INDUCED ELEVATED SHRA/TSA. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE CWFA AND STRONG SLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH GOOD MIXING EXPECTED TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA AS ANOTHER UPPER TROF DIGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. A RENEWED SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROF WILL INTERACT WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. ..DLF.. && .AVIATION... CONDITIONS HAD IMPROVED TO VFR EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS MAY CONTINUE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z. ..SHEETS.. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SHEETS/DLF
FXUS63 KLOT 030623
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
123 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010
.DISCUSSION...
1056 PM CDT
IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS FOCUSED ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI/ILLINOIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY FRIDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
QUICKLY DIMINISHING...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS AROUND
40KTS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT PERSIST
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. AXIS OF NEARLY 2 INCH PWATS EXTENDS
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF DOWNPOURS. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO THIN FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CURRENTLY CLEARING ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
BEACHLER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
255 PM CDT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOSTLY DIMINISHED THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF SETS IN OVERHEAD. SKIES HAVE
SCATTERED AND EVEN CLEARED OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...ALLOWING FOR HEATING OF THE SURFACE AND INSTABILITY TO
BUILD.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY DEALS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA STRETCHING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND CENTRAL KANSAS. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IN AN AREA OF
CLEARING...SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES INTENSIFYING AXIS OF HIGHER
SURFACE BASED CAPES ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH HIGHER VALUES STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. INSTABILITY DECREASES EAST OVER OUR CWA. DEEP
UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA...EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SHEAR ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
THIS EVENING WITH BETTER FORCING TO THE NORTH OVER WISCONSIN. JET
MAX BEGINS TO RIDE UP THE RIDGE AROUND THE SAME TIME...AND AT LEAST
BRIEFLY TONIGHT WILL BE IN FAVORABLE QUADRANT OF JET WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ALL SAID...EXPECT
STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY JUST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
BASED ON TIMING OF FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT
PERHAPS STRONG STORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA BEGINNING
BETWEEN 21-00Z...PROBABLY CLOSER TO 00Z...SUBSEQUENTLY LOSING SOME OF
ITS INTENSITY AS IT HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
AND AWAY FROM THE BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT. STRONG 500MB WINDS ALONG
THE FRONT WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENHANCING THE THREAT OF
SEVERE. MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS...WITH A LESSER
THREAT OF HAIL.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE CWA BY 06Z TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS EXPECTED TO CRANK UP AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER. NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO AROUND
850MB...WITH THE GFS ON THE HIGH END AND SHOWING STRONGER WINDS.
SEEMS IT WILL NOT BE HARD TO SEE 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS WITH SOME HIGHER
END GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY.
SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY AGAIN...HOWEVER THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY SO SHOULD NOT SEE THE SAME MAGNITUDE WINDS.
AS MENTIONED...TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS CANADIAN AIR MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 70 MARK IN SOME AREAS BUT
WILL REBOUND BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD ARE WITH WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 34 KT POSSIBLE BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MVFR CONDITIONS ENDING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MAIN CLOUD SHIELD
SLOWLY MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SCATTERED MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS REMAINING. DO ANTICIPATE SOME DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT ONCE
AGAIN TODAY...BUT WITH CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TO HELP FILL IN ANY REMAINING GAPS BY THE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS OF AROUND 5KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME BUT EXPECT
THESE TO EXIT/SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SKIES GOING
CLEAR AS SYSTEM EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST.
BIG DISCUSSION REMAINS WITH THE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHICH LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY THROUGHOUT. AS SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS WHILE DEPARTING TO THE NORTH...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE RATHER TIGHT ALONG WITH SOME COOLER AIR MOVING IN. THIS WILL
HELP WINDS TO INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 22KT POSSIBLE BY MID
MORNING...AND THEN GUSTS UP TO 34KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE GUSTS DROPPING OFF BY AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT
ANTICIPATING A DECOUPLING ATMOSPHERE TO HELP OFFSET SOME OF THE
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH IF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MIXED FURTHER INTO THE
NIGHT...GUSTS COULD BE OBSERVED LONGER ESPECIALLY WITH FAIRLY
STRONG WINDS NOT TOO FAR OFF THE GROUND.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ENDING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND DIRECTION AND
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH SPEED.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 06Z...
SATURDAY...VFR. MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR. MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TS.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
243 PM CDT
A LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO WESTERN IOWA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE OF
THE LOW WILL FALL TO 29.4 INCHES BY THEN. THIS RAPID PRESSURE FALL
WILL CREATE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A STRONG WIND OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO LAKE HURON TO CENTRAL
KENTUCKY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL GIVE A WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND OVER LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL REACH GALE FORCE
FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING...THE LOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO
...JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON. THE LOW HAVING A LOWER PRESSURE AND
A LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GIVE A STRONG
WIND UP TO GALES FRIDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM NEW YORK
TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND A HIGH WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. WE EXPECT THE WIND TO DIMINISH IN SPEED SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM
SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868...1 PM FRIDAY TO 5 PM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...1 PM
FRIDAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
FXUS63 KILX 030450 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1150 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 848 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 LATEST SURFACE MAP SHOWING COLD FRONT HAD REACHED THE ILLINOIS RIVER. STILL HAVE INTENSE STORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR TUSCOLA SOUTHWEST TO AROUND LITCHFIELD...WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS IMMEDIATELY ALONG AND A FEW MILES BEHIND THE FRONT. BOUNDARY IS STILL ON PACE TO REACH THE I-70 CORRIDOR TOWARD 06Z AND BE OUT OF THE CWA WELL BEFORE SUNRISE. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 50S AS CLOSE AS CENTRAL IOWA...AND THEY SHOULD REACH AS FAR AS I-57 BEFORE THE NIGHT IS OUT. WILL BE UPDATING THE ZONES SOON TO REFRESH THE WORDING...AS WELL AS UPDATE THE GRIDS FOR HOURLY TRENDS. THE GENERAL TRENDS OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ARE STILL VALID THOUGH. GEELHART && .AVIATION... ISSUED 1150 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010...FOR THE 06Z TAFS THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE STEADILY PROGRESSING EASTWARD. ALL PRECIP HAS ENDED AT PIA...WITH SHOWERS THROUGH 07Z AT SPI, 08Z AT BMI, 09Z AT DEC, AND 10Z AT CMI. MOST CIGS ARE ALREADY VFR...BUT A STRAY MVFR DECK MAY LINGER DURING ANY PERIODS OF RAIN THE NEXT 4 HOURS. VIS MAY DROP TO MVFR IN LOCALIZED AREAS. GUID FOR BMI POINTED TWRD SOME FOG...SO WE ADDED A MENTION AFTER 11Z...WHEN CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. THE NEXT BIG ISSUE WILL BE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY. GUSTS TO 25-30 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH AROUND SUNSET ON FRIDAY. SHIMON && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 MAIN CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE INCLUDE PCPN CHANCES THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. THEN NEXT CONCERN IS CHANCES OF PCPN FOR NEXT WEEK AND TEMPS. MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING FRONT THROUGH CWA QUICKLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRSS BRINGING IN DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO OF BLEND OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS LOOKS GOOD THIS PACKAGE. IN THE LONG TERM...MODELS AGREE THAT A RETURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE CWA/STATE AND APPEARS TO STILL BE IN EASTERN IOWA AT 19Z. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING IT THROUGH THIS EVENING...REACHING INTO INDIANA BY 06Z. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS STILL ARE AROUND 70 TO LOWER 70S. SO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CWA. SO WILL KEEP A LIKELY POP IN FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH IT TO CHC IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...COOL AND DRY HIGH PRSS WILL BUILD INTO THE CWA FOR INTO THE WEEKEND. THROUGH THE PERIOD THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY WHICH WILL ALLOW A COOLER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD BE A TAD GUSTY TOMORROW AS A SECONDARY TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH THE GRT LKS REGION AND THE HI PRSS RIDGE SITS OVER THE PLAINS. GRADIENT WILL THEN DIMINISH FOR SAT AND SUN AS THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEATHER IN CENTRAL IL. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD AND GUIDANCE LOOKS REASONABLE AT THIS TIME. LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE HI PRSS WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PUSHES EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE NEXT TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS TO THE EAST OF THE STATES AS WELL. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL ALSO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE WEEK WHICH WILL ALLOW ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS...BRINGING CHANCES OF PCPN TO THE CWA FOR TUE NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. TUE NIGHT AND WED LOOKS LIKE A COLD FRONT SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE CWA AS THE MAIN SYSTEM STAYS ACRS THE NORTHERN US. THIS FRONT APPEARS TO WASH OUT OF THE STATE THEN AND THEN BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON THUR...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PCPN TO THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING THE RETURN OF WARMER TEMPS TO THE REGION NEXT WEEK AND MEX GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. AUTEN && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KLSX 030500 AFDLSX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1200 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010 .DISCUSSION... /355 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TSRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND THRU THE EVE HOURS. TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROF AND ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN AS THE LINE MOVE SEWD. EXPECT TSRA TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY FRI MORNING WITH CLEARING BEHIND THE LINE WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA. MDLS AGREE WELL WITH LARGE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WITH DRY AND COOL AIR IN PLACE. MDLS PROG 8 TO 10C 850MB TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT...WHICH SHUD RESULT IN LWR TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS. WENT A LITTLE HIGHER SINCE IT IS STILL EARLY SEPT...BUT THIS IS TRENDED TWD THE COOLER MOS TEMPS. OVERALL...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE SHORT TERM FROM THE PREV FCST. TILLY EXTENDED (MON - THURS)... SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT STAGE RIGHT INTO THE SERN CONUS GIVING US ONE MORE DAY OF COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES. ANTICIPATE WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT THAT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEREAFTER SLY FLOW WILL RETURN USHERING WARMER AIR ACROSS THE RGN. H85 MID-LVL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF IMPULSES THRU THE H5 LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE INTER-MTN WEST WILL VEER SWLY AND ADVECT +20-24C TEMPS. HAVE UPPED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MONDAY. DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACRS THE RGN IN ASSOC WITH A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AS IT CONTINUALLY DRIFTS INTO THE SERN CONUS. INTO TUE MDL SOLNS SUCCINCT IN HANDLING OF UPR LVL FEATURES AND DEEP SFC LOW OVER THE N-CNTRL CONUS. A SFC FRONTAL BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE MO-IA BORDER BUT REMAIN FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN CONUS REMAINS WELL IN PLACE. WITH SFC AND MID-LVL SLY FLOW ADVECTING AN UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS NWD THRU THE RGN HAVE SLIGHT POPS FOR TUE ALONG THE STALLED SFC FRTL BNDRY BECOMING CATEGORICAL WED INTO THURS AS A DEEP H5 TROF BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE INTER-MTN WEST. SOME UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PROCESSES AND POTENTIAL ASCENT ASSOC WITH UPR LVL IMPULSES EJECTING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LIFTING H5 TROF BY END OF THE FCST PD. HOW THIS WILL IMPACT SFC TEMPS REMAIN TO BE SEEN...FOR NOW ANTICIPATE NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. AS THE UPR LVL DISTURBANCE EJECTS NEWD INTO THE GREAT LKS RGN SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS AND KICK THE INCLEMENT WEATHER EWD HOPEFULLY LEAVING US DRY BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SIPPRELL && .AVIATION... /1143 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ A FEW LINGERING SHRA WERE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO AND SOUTHWEST IL AT 05Z BUT PCPN WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. VFR CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND SCT DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TOMORROW. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME STEAM FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS TOWARDS AND JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF PD DUE TO DECREASING WINDS...WARM RIVER/LAKE TEMPERATURES...AND MUCH COOLER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...VFR THROUGH THE PD. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. KANOFSKY && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
FXUS63 KPAH 030422 AAA AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1122 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST ARE POPS TONIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION RETURNS TO POPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY HAS FINALLY DRIED UP. WOULD EXPECT THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL INDICATING THAT THE FRONT WILL RIP THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. EXAMINATION OF MODEL SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE REGION STILL NOT INDICATING ROBUST FORCING OR INSTABILITY TO WARRANT LIKELY OR BETTER POPS WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT. FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED CONVECTION...LIKELY EFFECTING THE KMVN AREA 03Z-06Z...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 06Z-12Z. AS SUCH...LIMITED POPS TO AROUND 50 WITH SCATTERED WORDING. WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH WIDESPREAD QPF...ON AVERAGE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN OMAHA AND KANSAS CITY...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S BEHIND IT AND GUSTY WINDS OVER 30KTS ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA. CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL DATA HAS DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS FORECAST MAY NOT BE DRY OR COOL ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL AND VERY DRY...WITH MONDAY WARMING UP TO AROUND 90 IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECWMF HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE THEY DEVELOP NEXT WEEK. THEY ARE NOW SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND COASTAL REGION. THE CONSENSUS IS NOW FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AROUND THE RIDGE AND TOWARD THE QUAD STATE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE 00Z ECMWF FOR POP POSITIONING...HOLDING THEM OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE AND POPS WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. && .AVIATION... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH BY 12Z FRIDAY...TURNING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ JAP/RST
FLUS43 KDVN 020947 HWODVN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 447 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-031000- BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON- CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON- HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL- WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON- WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK- 447 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY...PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES...LIMITING INSTABILITY FOR STORMS. HOWEVER...IF THE SUN CAN COME OUT AND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FOR MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. IF STRONG STORMS DO FORM...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES PAST THIS EVENING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY. $$ ERVIN/HAASE
FLUS43 KLOT 030355 HWOLOT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1055 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019- 040400- WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE- DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON- IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON- 1055 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 /1155 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. .DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT. WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED: THUNDERSTORMS...THE STRONGEST MAY PRODUCE: CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING: NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH 1 AM CDT. DISCUSSION: A POTENT COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 50KTS AND IS FAIRLY UNIFORM FROM THE WEST...AND VEERING NORTHWEST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL REMAINS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF NEARLY 2 INCHES EXTENDS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF DOWNPOURS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ LMZ740>745-040400- WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR- WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND- NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY- GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY- 1055 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WITH STRONG WINDS PRODUCING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HIGH WAVES AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ESPECIALLY FOR THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868- 870-872-874-876-878-040400- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- 1055 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ BEACHLER
FLUS43 KILX 022048 HWOILX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 348 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 ILZ027>031-036>038-040>043-047>053-031100- CASS-CHRISTIAN-DE WITT-FULTON-KNOX-LOGAN-MACON-MARSHALL-MASON- MCLEAN-MENARD-MORGAN-PEORIA-SANGAMON-SCHUYLER-SCOTT-STARK- TAZEWELL-WOODFORD- 348 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...TRIGGERING SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING. $$ ILZ044>046-054>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-031100- CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-CLAY-COLES-CRAWFORD-CUMBERLAND-DOUGLAS-EDGAR- EFFINGHAM-JASPER-LAWRENCE-MOULTRIE-PIATT-RICHLAND-SHELBY- VERMILION- 348 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING...TRIGGERING SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...WITH AREAS FURTHER WEST SEEING THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ BARNES
FLUS43 KLSX 022052 HWOLSX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 352 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-031200- GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL- MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL- CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO- LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO- AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO- LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO- ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO- WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO- MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO- 352 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING. && FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1 $$ TILLY
FLUS43 KPAH 022050 HWOPAH HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 350 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-031000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 350 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE QUAD STATE TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL ENTER THE AREA AROUND 10 PM AND PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS EVENING. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AND WEAKEN AS THEY SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE QUAD STATE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY. ANY STORMS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. $$ DRS
FXUS63 KTOP 030451 AFDTOP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 1151 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .UPDATE... UPDATE FOR 06Z AVIATION. && .DISCUSSION... SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. && .AVIATION... EXPECT THERE TO ENOUGH WIND ALOFT AND CONTINUED DRY AIR ADVECTION TO KEEP FOG IN CHECK TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...AND THE OCCASIONAL CIRRUS SHOULD HELP AS WELL. ONLY OTHER AVIATION CONCERN IS WIND CHANGES...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20KT LIKELY FOR MOST LOCATIONS FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY...AND A QUICK DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 65 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ DISCUSSION... THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING... POTENT COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED ON A LINE FROM ATCHISON TO ALMA TO HERINGTON MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 30 MPH. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KANSAS RECEIVED AMPLE HEATING FROM THE SUN WHICH HAS AIDED IN DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS ANDERSON...FRANKLIN...OSAGE...AND LYON COUNTIES. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN SHAWNEE...DOUGLAS...NORTHERN LYON...AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES HAS ALLOWED SOME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD IT WILL KICKOFF A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG IN INTENSITY. SEVERE WEATHER IS MOST LIKELY IN AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. FORECAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF APPROXIMATELY 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL ALLOW SOME UPDRAFTS TO BECOME QUITE TALL AND DEMONSTRATE SOME ROTATION. WITH FREEZING LEVELS AROUND 14 TO 15 KFT HAIL BECOMES MORE OF A CONCERN. DRY COOL AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PREVENT MUCH WIND FROM ANY STORM BEHIND THE BOUNDARY FROM REACHING THE SURFACE...BUT STORMS FIRING ALONG OR IN FRONT OF THE BOUNDARY COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. THESE WINDS WILL TAPER OFF AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND THE SUN SETS. SKIES WILL THEN CLEAR OUT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG COULD FORM IN SOME AREAS DUE TO COOL TEMPERATURES...CALM WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES...HOWEVER DRY AIR JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL MITIGATE WIDESPREAD FOG FORMATION. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT A CLEAR DAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS ON FRIDAY. JL SAT/SUN/MON...FORECAST FOR THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE AN ENJOYABLE ONE. COOL HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS AROUND TO SOUTHERLY WIND LATE SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS THAT DAY IN THE LOW 80S AFTER A NIGHT OF OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND THE 50 MARK. NW FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS TO WEAK RIDGING AND SLOWLY INCREASES WINDS AND TEMPS TO BRING LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE 50S AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. NEXT FRONT APPROACHES EASTERN KANSAS ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD BRING A CHANCE OF STORMS LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT BEING ON THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROF UNDER WESTERLY FLOW...NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT. WILL LEAVE POPS OUT BUT COOL HIGHS ACROSS NC COUNTIES INTO THE 80S AND LEAVE EAST CENTRAL HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. TUESDAYS FORECAST WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONT HANGS UP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GFS INDICATING IT STALLS ACROSS THE CWA ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE ON TUESDAY MORNING...THEN THINKING BUILDUP OF INSTABILITY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WILL LEAVE A CHANCE FOR STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. COULD BE A MORE DRAMATIC DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE GRIDS WHICH CONTINUES THE LOWER TO MID 80S NORTH AND NEAR 90 EAST CENTRAL SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. LIFT OVER THE FRONT FROM THE LLJ ON TUESDAY NIGHT WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF PRECIP CHANCES...AND INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT LIFTS THE FRONT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THIS INCREASES POSSIBILITIES OF RIPPLES OF ENERGY LIFTING ACROSS EASTERN KS IN THE SW FLOW AND KEPT POPS CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR THURSDAY AS A RESULT. KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S. 67 && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KICT 030428 AFDICT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1128 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .AVIATION...06Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH DRIER COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA FOR TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24HRS. JAKUB && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ DISCUSSION... SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM KPTT-KHUT-KEMP AT 18:30Z. THIS FRONT IS A FAST MOVING ONE WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BEHIND IT. CONVECTION BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND IT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE ALONG WITH THE FRONT. INSTABILITIES CONTINUE TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE SHEAR REMAINS AROUND 35 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD FAVOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WITH THE PRIMARY STORM MODE BEING SUPERCELLS COMBINED WITH MULTICELL CONVECTION. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS ARE LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGING WIND...IN THAT ORDER AT THE MOMENT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A DISTURBANCE CENTERED AND MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS PROVIDING SOME UPPER DYNAMIC SUPPORT /RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE JET/ FOR CONVECTION. TONIGHT: ONGOING CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE OVER EASTERN KANSAS TO SUPPORT SEVERE CONVECTION. THAT SAID...THE OPPORTUNITY IS LIMITED BASED ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AND THE EXITING DYNAMIC SUPPORT. SO...THINK THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS FOR SEVERE CONVECTION...CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR SEVERE CONVECTION...OR ANY CONVECTION FOR THAT MATTER...WEST OF INTERSTATE 135. ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...THERE WILL BE WINDS GUSTING TO 40 TO 50 MPH RIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS LASTS ONLY FOR 15 TO 20 MINUTES...SO DO NOT FEEL THIS WARRANTS AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE DURATION. WE ARE ADDRESSING THIS WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS /SPS/. FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE TO WHERE A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. THIS WILL CAUSE DOWNSTREAM RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH THE PLAINS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TRANSITION. AS FAR AS THE SPECIFICS...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AND BRING HIGHS DOWN INTO THE 80S FOR THE WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN AS THE HIGH RAPIDLY EXITS AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. THIS STRENGTHENS THROUGH MONDAY. A DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS OCCURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL THROUGH DIGS OVER THE WESTERN STATES. CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH IN THIS CAUSING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO INCREASE DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. COOK AVIATION...18Z TAFS KRSL/KSLN/KHUT/KICT/KCNU THERE ARE 3 PRIMARY PROBLEMS TO BE DEALT WITH THIS AFTERNOON: 1) THE EXPECTED STRONG-SVR TSRA THAT SHOULD ERUPT OVER SC & SE KS AS COLD FRONT CONTINUES ITS SE SURGE. 2) PIN-POINTING EXACT ARRIVAL TIME OF COLD FRONT...OBVIOUSLY FOR WIND SHIFT PURPOSES. 3) HOW FAR POST-FRONTAL MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON & EARLY THIS EVENING OVER SE KS. WITH NLY POST-FRONTAL GRADIENT FAIRLY TIGHT HAVE PRESSED HARDER ON WIND THROTTLE OVER PRIMARILY CNTRL KS WITH SUSTAINED 25KTS ASSIGNED TO KRSL FOR MOST OF AFTERNOON. AS STATED IN "UPDATE" STRONG-SVR TSRA TO BREAK OUT OVER SC & SE KS AS COLD FRONT SURGES INTO VERY MOIST & DESTABILIZING AIRMASS. UNTIL EXACT LOCATIONS OF THE EXPECTED TSRA COME INTO BETTER FOCUS HAVE ASSIGNED "VCTS" TO NEARLY ALL TERMINALS FOR TIME BEING. SKIES TO CLEAR RAPIDLY IN NW-SE MANNER WITH RAPIDLY DIMINISHING NLY WINDS AS FAIRLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SE OVER KS FORCING COLD FRONT THRU KCNU ~02/21Z. ES && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WICHITA-KICT 58 80 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 HUTCHINSON 56 79 54 82 / 0 0 10 10 NEWTON 58 78 54 82 / 0 0 0 0 ELDORADO 58 78 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 WINFIELD-KWLD 57 80 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 RUSSELL 52 79 54 86 / 0 0 10 10 GREAT BEND 52 79 54 86 / 0 0 10 10 SALINA 55 79 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 MCPHERSON 56 79 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 COFFEYVILLE 57 80 52 84 / 10 0 0 0 CHANUTE 57 78 51 83 / 10 0 0 0 IOLA 56 78 51 82 / 0 0 0 0 PARSONS-KPPF 57 79 52 84 / 10 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KDDC 022025 CCA AFDDDC AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 325 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .DISCUSSION... DAYS 1-2... FORECAST ISSUES THIS PERIOD REVOLVE AROUND INCOMING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND HOW WINDY IT MAY REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND THEN FOLLOWED BY HOW COLD IT MAY GET OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS WE HEAD INTO A DRY PATTERN FOR THE SHORT TERM. A SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED SOUTHEAST TO A LINE FROM QUIVIRA TO DODGE CITY AND LIBERAL, AND WILL CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA LEAVING WIDESPREAD NORTH WINDS THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY IN THE EVENING DUE TO A SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, BUT THE MECHANICAL MIXING SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BELOW THE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE WEST. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES THE GRADIENT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DROP BELOW ABOUT 15 MPH BY LATE EVENING. THE OTHER IMPORTANT FACTOR WILL BE JUST HOW DRY THE SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE TONIGHT AND HOW LIGHT THE WINDS MIGHT BECOME WHICH COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN WHETHER WE SEE LOW TEMPERATURES IN OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40 DUE TO PROLONGED RADIATIONAL COOLING, OR REMAIN STILL A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR SO BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. VERY DRY AIR WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 30S IS ALREADY BEING SEEN ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA, WHICH WOULD UNDERSCORE A STRONGER ARGUMENT FOR COOLER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DESPITE THE RECENT NAM OUTPUT OF HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT SURFACE AIR. MOVING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON, A VERY PLEASANT DAY APPEARS TO BE SHAPING UP AS WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER COLD ADVECTION WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. FARTHER WEST, TEMPERATURES COULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS WAS USED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES. SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ON THE HEELS OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING SURFACE ANTICYCLONE, WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND DEEPER MIXING. WIDESPREAD 80S AS WELL AS A FEW PLACES ACROSS THE WEST REACHING THE 90S AGAIN IS LIKELY BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. RUSSELL DAYS 3-7... THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LVL S/W TROF WAS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IT DOES OUR NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH INTO WRN KS. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVES THIS FRONT INTO THE CWA LATE MONDAY AND THEN BEGINS TO ENHANCE UVV NORTH OF THIS FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LVL JET STARTS TO INFLUENCE NORTHERN KANSAS. WITH THIS IN MIND COMBINED WITH THE WAA DEVELOPING NORTH OF THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS ACROSS OUR NRN CWA MONDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY NIGHT THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN THEN TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT BUT UNTIL THIS FRONT EXITS NRN KS WILL NOT COMPLETELY ABLE TO RULE OUT SOME LINGERING PCPN IN OUR N/NE CWA. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW QUICKLY AND HOW FAR NORTH THIS FRONT WILL MOVE MID WEEK HAVE OPTED TO STAY WITH PERSISTENCE AND LEAVE SMALL POPS AS IS IN OUR N/NE CWA FROM TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. && .AVIATION... MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30KT RANGE CAN BE ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND A COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STRONG WINDS AND MVFR CIGS WILL HOWEVER QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z AS A COOL DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO SETTLES INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. AFTER 3Z FRI EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NORTH WINDS BELOW 10KTS. 18 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DDC 51 79 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 GCK 49 81 48 90 / 0 0 0 0 EHA 49 80 52 91 / 0 0 0 0 LBL 48 81 52 91 / 0 0 0 0 HYS 50 78 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 P28 54 80 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ076-077-086- 087. && $$ FN33/18
FXUS63 KGLD 030430 AFDGLD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1030 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010 .DISCUSSION... 239 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010 1845 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS BOTH SW AND SE CONUS. CWA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON BACKSIDE OF TROUGH, WITH DRY AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO AREA. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE OVERNIGHT TEMPS, FOLLOWED BY RAPID WARMUP OVER THE WEEKEND. TONIGHT...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER AREA. A BIT CONCERNED THAT RUC WANTS TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER DEW PTS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S OVERNIGHT, BUT THE RUC ALSO IS NOT CAPTURING CURRENT DEWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS NE COLO AND SW NEB WELL. BELIEVE THIS DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER DEW PTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT AND OVERALL WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW ZONES TO THE MID/UPPER 40S SE ZONES. TOMORROW-MONDAY...GRADUAL WARMUP STARTS TOMORROW, WITH MORE RAPID WARMUP ENSUING OVER WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD AREA. HAVE TWEAKED HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES. QUESTIONS AS TO HOW WARM TO MAKE IT SUNDAY. RUN TO RUN MODEL COMPS SHOWS HIGHER THICKNESSES SUNDAY VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS, MOS DEPICTS MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, AND LOCAL BIAS CORRECTIONS WOULD SUGGEST SOME AREAS APPROACHING IF NOT REACHING 100 DEGREES. WILL BUMP TEMPS TO THE MID/UPPER 90S IN MOST AREAS FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE. FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WOULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON HIGHS, BUT CURRENT THINKING TO DROP TEMPS BY 5-10 DEGREES LOOKS GOOD. HAVE KEPT MONDAY DRY WITH SILENT POPS UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WHEN BOTH EXT MODELS DEPICT A BIT OF QPF. IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ADVERTISING BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER SE CONUS, WITH CWA UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AND POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE PATTERN. THE GFS CLOSES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WHEREAS THE EC KEEPS THE TROUGH OPEN, AND THUS THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER IN ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. BIGGEST DIFF BTWN THE TWO MODELS IS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, BUT HAVE BROADBRUSHED SLIGHT POPS BEGINNING TUE EVE THROUGH WED AS BOTH MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN PAINTING PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH POSITION OF SFC FRONT IN QUESTION. 50 && .AVIATION... 1030 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010 FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR FOR KGLD AND KMCK. SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SLIDING EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. LGT/VAR WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY AT KGLD BY 18Z AND KMCK AFTER 00Z. 07 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KGID 030529 AFDGID AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 1229 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010 .AVIATION...06Z TAF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD...LEAVING WINDS AS THE ONLY REAL ITEM OF INTEREST. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS MIXING INCREASES...RESULTING IN GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THIS CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WINDS BEING MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE WILL SHIFT EAST OF KGRI AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING SPEEDS TO DROP TO BELOW 12 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PASSES BY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE CWFA WITH SHARPLY LOWER DEWPOINTS /40S/ AND GUSTY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT DROP OFF QUICKLY. MODELS SHOW A BIT OF GUSTINESS EARLY FRIDAY OVER AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281...AND WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF THAT AREA WAS BREEZY /UP TO 25 MPH/ DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO LATER IN THE DAY AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF DURING THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REFLECT THE DRY AIR AND DIP INTO THE 40S AND 50S...AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE FOR MIDDLE 70S IN SOME AREAS FRIDAY. CERTAINLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A WARMING TREND AS SOUTHERLY WINDS START TO PICK UP. STRONG MID LEVEL CAP MOVES INTO THE CWFA BY SATURDAY EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST. THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES. OVERALL...ITS GOING TO BE A PRETTY NICE WEEKEND. LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z MONDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER UPON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA...SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND BEFORE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE MONDAY. BOTH THE EC AND OPERATIONAL GFS INDICATE A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT OUT FROM THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG A 50KT JET STREAK...WHICH WILL IN TURN STRENGTHEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS NOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE SURFACE LOW THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ON INTO SOUTHERN CANADA OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. WHILE THERE WERE DISAGREEMENTS YESTERDAY BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC REGARDING THE ASSOCIATED FROPA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW...BOTH MODELS NOW INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...LIKELY CLEARING OUR ENTIRE CWA BY 06Z TUE. LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN OR CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH AND EJECT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND AS A RESULT...ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO...THUS ALLOWING THE SURFACE FRONT OVER KANSAS TO SURGE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PRESENT PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...FRONTAL TIMING APPEARS KEY TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION MONDAY AFTERNOON. NOW THAT THE EC AND OPERATIONAL GFS HAVE FALLEN IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST FOR LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...AND AN AXIS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP IN THE 310-320K SURFACE RANGE PER THE EC. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S C. THIS SHOULD YIELD MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S F. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED POST-FROPA ON TUESDAY...WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...KB
FLUS43 KTOP 030001 HWOTOP HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS 701 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-040015- REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY- POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS- WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON- 701 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT. $$
FLUS43 KICT 030316 HWOICT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS 1016 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-040330- RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE- RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER- SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE- 1016 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS... SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK...AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. && FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP $$
FLUS43 KDDC 030039 AAA HWODDC HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS 739 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-040045- TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN- PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA- PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER- 739 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 /639 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20 TO 30 MPH...AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT WEST OF HIGHWAY 283. AS A RESULT OF THESE CONDITIONS THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR WILDFIRES WEST OF HIGHWAY 283 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL IF A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WHETHER EXISTS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT. && FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC $$ 06
FLUS43 KGLD 022230 HWOGLD HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 430 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-031200- YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON- SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA- DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW- 430 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010 /530 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$
FLUS43 KGID 021934 HWOGID HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 234 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 031200- PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 234 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA BEGINNING NEXT MONDAY...AND CONTINUE PERIODICALLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS (ALL LOWERCASE) $$
FXUS63 KGRR 030355 AFDGRR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1155 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010 LATEST UPDATE...AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS...(430 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010) OUR FIRST TASTE OF AUTUMN LIKE WEATHER IS ON THE WAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION FRIDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE ONLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. INCREASING WEST WINDS WILL ADD FURTHER CHILL TO THE AIR... AND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY END SATURDAY. && .SHORT TERM...(430 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010) (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT) WE HAVE BEEN STUCK IN THICK CLOUD COVER WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY SO COVERAGE OF ANY TSTMS HAS BEEN ISOLATED AT BEST TODAY. HOWEVER INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO INCREASE FOR THE 03Z-09Z TIME FRAME AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING AND STRENGTHENING SFC COLD FRONT. SUSPECT COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WILL BE FILLING IN TOWARD 03Z PARTICULARLY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WHICH SHOULD BE GETTING OVER LAKE MI BY 06Z AND NEAR LAN AND JXN MORE TOWARD 09Z. SEVERE THREAT IS VERY LOW/MARGINAL... ALTHOUGH SOME WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH APPEAR POSSIBLE WITH THE CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE RISE OR AT LEAST HOLDING STEADY THROUGH 06Z IN SW LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE CWFA TO START THE DAY FRIDAY SO SOME MORNING SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE... BUT COLD ADVECTION/WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE COMING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM NW TO SE. CONSIDERED POSTING A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE LAKESHORE COUNTIES ALREADY FOR FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT... BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND LET THE MID SHIFT ISSUE. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT... AS WELL AS DEEPEST MOISTURE AND LAKE GENERATED INSTABILITY... COMES IN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AS WELL AS THE AREA SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 96 CORRIDOR WHERE MODELS HAVE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MAGNITUDE OF THE WINDS IN THIS AREA WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CARRY THE RAIN SHOWERS WELL INLAND TOWARD JXN. BELIEVE ISOLATED THUNDER WILL BE A POSSIBILITY AS WELL AND WOULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME GRAUPEL FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DEEPER CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM BEGINS LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND WILL HAVE SHOWERS ENDING IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA. HOWEVER LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE AND CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE FAR NRN CWFA WILL PROBABLY ALLOW SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO LINGER. ALL AREAS SHOULD SEE THE RAIN END SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 40S INLAND FROM LAKE MICHIGAN. && .LONG TERM...(430 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010) (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY) MAIN CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AFTER A DRY SUNDAY FEATURING DEEP ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...MODELS DIVERGE ON THE EVOLUTION OF A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THE GFS IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND PROGRESSIVE BY BRINGING A SHARP UPPER SHORTWAVE TROF TOWARDS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH ATTENDANT LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. HOWEVER...WE FAVOR THE SLOWER ECMWF AND FIM SOLUTIONS WHICH KEEP THE BULK OF THE ENERGY AND MEAN TROUGH FARTHER W OVER THE PACIFIC NW...WHICH KEEPS A DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY ARISING FROM THE MODEL DIFFERENCES...HAVE OPTED FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED LATER FOR WEDNESDAY AS THERE IS A SUGGESTION BY THE GFS/ECMWF OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY STRONG RIDGING ALOFT ON THURSDAY WITH A GREATER CONFIDENCE FOR DRY CONDITIONS. && .AVIATION...(1155 PM THU SEP 2 2010) THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN MOVING THROUGH ABOUT ON SCHEDULE. ONCE THE LINE THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF CLEARING (NOT SHOWN IN TAF AS IT WILL NOT LAST TO LONG ) NEAR 7 AM... BUT THE LOW CLOUDS FROM THE COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW SO MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GUST TO NEAR 30 KNOTS BY MID DAY TOO. && .MARINE...(430 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010) SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE 15-25 KT SW FLOW AND 3 TO 6 FOOT WAVES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL RUN UP UNTIL THE START OF THE GALE WARNING WHICH BEGINS AT 2 PM FRIDAY. THE GALE WARNING FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY REMAINS IN EFFECT. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF 35-40 KNOT WINDS KICKING IN BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING UNTIL MID DAY SATURDAY. DESPITE THE CHILLY AIR OVER THE LAKE... WATERSPOUTS APPEAR UNLIKELY. WHILE IT CAN/T BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT... THE WATERSPOUT STUDY AND NOMOGRAM DEVELOPED BY WADE SZILAGYI OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA INDICATES 850 MB WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 35 KNOTS FOR SPOUTS. THAT IS NOT PROGGED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... AT WHICH TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIFTING OUT. && .HYDROLOGY...(430 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010) OTHER THAN SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS NEAR 1.5 INCHES ALONG THE LAKESHORE NORTH OF HOLLAND (NORTON SHORES IN PARTICULAR)... RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR HAVE BEEN UNDER ONE INCH. CORRIDOR OF PWAT VALUES NEAR TWO INCHES STILL EXISTS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT... SO SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE TONIGHT. HOWEVER LARGER AREAL AVERAGES SHOULD NOT CAUSE ANY SIGNIFICANT MAINSTEM RIVER RISES. INDIVIDUAL STORM MOVEMENT AFTER 03Z SHOULD BE INCREASING... WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE ANY LOCALIZED FLOODING POTENTIAL. QPF FROM SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS PROBABLY NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO ISSUES... BUT IF THUNDER DEVELOPS OFF THE LAKE THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS/GRAUPEL. && .GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI....NONE. LM....SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 2 PM FRIDAY FOR ST JOSEPH TO MANISTEE MI. GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ST JOSEPH TO MANISTEE MI. && $$ SYNOPSIS: MEADE SHORT TERM: MEADE LONG TERM: TJT AVIATION: WDM MARINE: MEADE HYDROLOGY: MEADE
FXUS63 KIWX 030527
AFDIWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
127 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010
.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO PREVIOUS TAFS. CDFNT WAS MOVG ACROSS NRN
INDIANA ATTM WITH A WKNG LINE OF CONVECTION ACCOMPANYING IT. CIGS
SHOULD SCT OUT THIS MORNING AND WINDS INCREASE AS MIXING DEEPENS IN
CAA REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. A SECONDARY TROF WILL ROTATE AROUND
UPR GRTLKS LOW AND MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVE CAUSING CIGS TO
REDEVELOP AND LOWER. AT SBN THIS SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED AND
FOLLOWED BY LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 715 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010/
UPDATE/AVIATION...
STG CDFNT ALG THE MS RVR THIS EVENING IN ASSOCN/W ENERGETIC LT SUMMER
CYCLONE WILL BLAST EWD OVERNIGHT...REACHING NW IN TWD MIDNIGHT AND
INTO NW OH AFT 06Z. EXPANDING AREA OF STG-SVR STORMS OVR CNTRL IL
ALG PRE-FNTL TROUGH WILL LIKELY MELD W/ADVG UPSTREAM POST-FNTL
STORMS AND CONT ENE THIS EVENING IN CONJUNCTION W/MODEST EML
EMBEDDED IN MID LVL DRY SLOT SEEN IN VAPOR AND REINTENSIFICATION OF
LLJ AS NOTED IN UPSTREAM PROFILER/VWP DATA. HWVR SVR RISK LOCALLY
CONTS TO APPEAR MARGINAL GIVEN TIME OF DAY AND ONSET OF BNDRY LYR
BASED STABILIZATION W/SUNSET. THIS AGREES WELL W/21Z RUC HANDLING
AND SUGGESTS CONVN WILL HOLD TOGETHER AND CARRY INTO FAR WRN ZONES
TWD 04Z BFR DECAYING W/EWD EXTENT AS FOCUS SHIFTS WWD ALG INCOMING
SFC CDFNT. PRIMARY NR TERM CHANGE WILL BE TO SHRINK FAR ERN POP
EXTENT W/REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT GRIDS IN GOOD SHAPE.
VFR CONDS XPCD OTHERWISE W/INCREASING TURBULENT MIXING KEEPING CIGS
BOUND THROUGH LWR END OF VFR CAT. WILL ADD BRIEF TEMPO TSRA MENTION
AT KSBN PER BTR OVERNIGHT TIMING OF FROPA AND GREATER ELEVATED
INSTABILITY OTHERWISE BECOMING WINDY FRI AM W/SFC GUSTS AOA 25KTS
XPCD BY LT MORNING.
SHORT TERM...LATE THIS AFTN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
STRONG/VERY DYNAMIC UPPER TROUGH NOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST WILL PROPAGATE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY FRIDAY BRINGING
A DRASTIC CHANGE TO MORE EARLY FALL-LIKE WX FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. IN THE NEAR TERM...SCT SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN/EASTERN FA AS OF 19Z SHOULD SLOWLY EXIT THE REGION OR
DIMINISH BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
SRN GREAT LAKES TO THE NE.
SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE AND 70-80 KT MID LVL
SPEED MAX INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL HELP SPAWN A DEEP SFC LOW
ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TONIGHT/FRIDAY...WITH THE
ATTENDANT STRONG COLD FRONT PROGGED TO TRANSLATE THROUGH THE NW BTW
4-7Z AND THE SOUTHEAST BTW 7-11Z. STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG
FRONT...INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT PER Q-VECTOR AND OMEGA
PROGS...AND DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK/MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD/ALONG
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW PRECIP TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES THROUGH...ESPECIALLY WITH CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING
ALONG THE FRONT IN IA AND WC IL AS OF THIS WRITING. SVR THREAT
SEEMS TO BE WEST OF HERE PER POOR DIURNAL FROPA TIMING AND LINGERING
MLCIN FROM MORNING/EARLY AFTN CLOUDS/PRECIP.
DRY SLOT WILL SETTLE IN FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY AFTN AS THE
TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE APPROACHES. THE MAIN
STORY ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE INCREASING WINDS GIVEN STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND MORNING SUNSHINE SUPPORTING DRY
ADIABATIC LOW LVL LAPSE RATES AND GOOD MOMENTUM TRANSFER/MIXING.
HELD OFF ON ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY...BUT DID UPGRADE MARINE
HEADLINES. AS FOR TEMPS...ONGOING CAA IS EXPECTED WITH 85H TEMPS
DROPPING TO AROUND 8/9C BY 18Z FRI...AND EVENTUALLY TO 2/3C BY 12Z
SATURDAY. PROGGED DRY SLOT AND EXPECTING MIXING SHOULD ALLOW FRI
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW/MID 70S.
FINAL CONCERN IS WITH POTENTIAL LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY
AFTN INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS 85H DELTA T/S DROP INTO THE 15-20C RANGE
FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS
THROUGH. THIS COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT LAKE
INDUCED CAPE VALUES BTW 700-1200 J/KG WITH EQUILIBRIUM LVLS PUSHING
APPX 15000 FT. WNW LOW LVL FLOW AND STRONG FLOW WILL LIMIT PARCEL
RESIDENCE TIME...BUT STILL EXPECT SCT SHOWERS NEAR THE LAKE DURING
THIS TIME. WITH THIS...DID RAISE POPS TO LIKELY IN THE FAR NW FRIDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
A VERY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL SUPPORT LARGE THERMAL AND HEIGHT
FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS DEPLETING INSOLATION AT HIGH
LATITUDES SUPPORTS A STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER NORTHERN NOAM.
MASSIVE DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD WITH H5 HEIGHTS PROGGED AT 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES...SUPPORTING A VERY INTENSE SFC
PRESSURE REFLECTION...WITH STRONG TEMP ADVECTIONS ANTICIPATED. FLOW
WILL THEN MODERATE WITH ANOTHER STRONG IMPULSE SUPPORTING DECENT
MID NOAM RIDGING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THERMAL FIELDS BACK TO
ABOVE CLIMO NORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD WITH DISAGREEMENT GROWING
AMONG THE GEM/GFS/ECMWF BY MID NEXT WEEK PER HEIGHT FIELDS. THE MAIN
SOURCE FOR MODEL DISCREPANCY STEMS FROM THE HANDLING OF THE PAC NW
UPPER IMPULSE THAT EJECTS EARLY NEXT WEEK. DOWNSTREAM FLOW OVER THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC DOES BECOME SEMI-BLOCKED PER WAVE MERGER PROCESSES
WITH EARL REMNANTS. THE PREFERRED SOLUTION AT THIS TIME IS AN
ECMWF/MEAN GEFS BLEND WHICH SUPPORTS A MORE NORTHERN BIAS TO THE
HEIGHT FIELD...AND ASSOCIATED STORM TRACK.
SATURDAY...DEEP UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION WILL BE IN
THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE GREAT LAKES WITH A VERY STRONG LL
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE. BL MIXING WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED NW
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH EVEN DEEPER MIXING EXPECTED OVER LK MI
PER WARM WATER TEMPS. COLD TEMPS ALOFT INDICATED IN AVERAGE BUFR
PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A STRONG CONVECTIVE RESPONSE OVER LAKE MI WITH
DELTA T/S APPROACHING 20 C...SFC TO H85. THIS WILL SUPPORT LAKE
INDUCED CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN A SHEAR-CONNECTIVE ORIENTATION MIXED MODE. CANNOT RULE
OUT A TS GIVEN PARCEL CURVES WELL ABOVE -20C ALTHOUGH HAVE NOT
MENTIONED GIVEN LOW PROBS. WAA WILL ENSUE SAT AFTERNOON WITH LAKE
INDUCED CAPES DIMINISHING QUICKLY...ALTHOUGH HAVE CARRIED LOW CHANCE
POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON FAR NW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD QUICKLY
INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SUPPORTING
DIMINISHING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED FOR
THINGS TO PROGRESS A LITTLE SLOWER GIVEN CONCERNS ON DOWNSTREAM
BLOCKING PER EARL INFLUENCE. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN SAT GIVEN MOS
TRENDS AND EXPECTED MIXING HEIGHTS/THERMAL FIELDS.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SFC RIDGING EXPECTED WITH MODERATING
THERMAL FIELDS. TEMPS WILL WARMER REACH DAY...REACHING AND EXCEEDING
CLIMO NORMS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS UP SOME.
AFOREMENTIONED NORTHERN PLANS EJECTING TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A WEAK
BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION BY MID NEXT WEEK...WITH A BACKDOOR TYPE
COLD FRONT EXPECTED. DID TREND TEMPS TOWARD CLIMO. MASSIVE LL
NEGATIVE THETA-E SURGE PER THE THIS WEEKEND/S SYSTEM WILL REACH THE
GOMEX...EFFECTIVELY GUTTING ALL LL MOISTURE FOR THE EASTERN CONUS.
GIVEN CONCERNS ON A SLOW MOISTURE RETURN...WITH EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
SLOWING...HAVE BIASED DOWN MODEL DEWPOINT FIELDS WHICH SEEM
EXCESSIVELY HIGH. HENCE...PREFERRED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY IN THE
EXTENDED...ONLY ADDING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP MENTION WED...MOSTLY FOR
COLLAB PURPOSES WITH A LL TROUGH IN THE AREA. ATTM...THE PREFERENCE
IS TOWARD DRY FORECAST GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE EASTERN CONUS
HIGH...SUPPORTING DRY EASTERLY TRAJECTORIES.
AVIATION...18Z TAFS
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
AT FWA...ALTHOUGH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEFORE
20/21Z. LOW MVFR CLOUD DECK AT SBN SHOULD SLOWLY LIFT TO HIGH END
MVFR OR LOW VFR BY LATER THIS AFTN. ALSO MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AT
EACH TAF SITE AS A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TRACKS NEWD THROUGH THE SRN
GREAT LAKES. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH SBN BTW 4-7Z AND
FWA BTW 7-10Z. SHOWERS/STORMS AND AT LEAST MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY SLOT
BRIEFLY SETTLES IN BEHIND THIS FRONT FRIDAY MORNING WITH WIND
VEERING MORE WESTERLY AND INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS BY 18Z FRI AS
SFC LOW RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ043-
046.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
LMZ043-046.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...STEINWEDEL
AVIATION...JT
FXUS63 KLOT 030623
AFDLOT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
123 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010
.DISCUSSION...
1056 PM CDT
IR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS FOCUSED ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI/ILLINOIS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND WILL PUSH
INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA EARLY FRIDAY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY IS
QUICKLY DIMINISHING...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS AROUND
40KTS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT PERSIST
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS. AXIS OF NEARLY 2 INCH PWATS EXTENDS
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF DOWNPOURS. SKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO THIN FROM WEST TO EAST...AND CURRENTLY CLEARING ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.
BEACHLER
//PREV DISCUSSION...
255 PM CDT
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS MOSTLY DIMINISHED THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
AND SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROF SETS IN OVERHEAD. SKIES HAVE
SCATTERED AND EVEN CLEARED OVER PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...ALLOWING FOR HEATING OF THE SURFACE AND INSTABILITY TO
BUILD.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR TODAY DEALS WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA STRETCHING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND CENTRAL KANSAS. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IN AN AREA OF
CLEARING...SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES INTENSIFYING AXIS OF HIGHER
SURFACE BASED CAPES ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH HIGHER VALUES STRETCHING TO THE SOUTHWEST
OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. INSTABILITY DECREASES EAST OVER OUR CWA. DEEP
UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA...EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SHEAR ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
THIS EVENING WITH BETTER FORCING TO THE NORTH OVER WISCONSIN. JET
MAX BEGINS TO RIDE UP THE RIDGE AROUND THE SAME TIME...AND AT LEAST
BRIEFLY TONIGHT WILL BE IN FAVORABLE QUADRANT OF JET WHICH SHOULD
HELP TO ENHANCE LIFT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS. ALL SAID...EXPECT
STRONGEST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY JUST ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
BASED ON TIMING OF FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT
PERHAPS STRONG STORMS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA BEGINNING
BETWEEN 21-00Z...PROBABLY CLOSER TO 00Z...SUBSEQUENTLY LOSING SOME OF
ITS INTENSITY AS IT HEADS SOUTHEAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
AND AWAY FROM THE BETTER DYNAMIC SUPPORT. STRONG 500MB WINDS ALONG
THE FRONT WILL INCREASE THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENHANCING THE THREAT OF
SEVERE. MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WILL BE STRONG WINDS...WITH A LESSER
THREAT OF HAIL.
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH THE CWA BY 06Z TONIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT...WINDS EXPECTED TO CRANK UP AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH
COOLER. NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO AROUND
850MB...WITH THE GFS ON THE HIGH END AND SHOWING STRONGER WINDS.
SEEMS IT WILL NOT BE HARD TO SEE 30 TO 35 MPH GUSTS WITH SOME HIGHER
END GUSTS NEARING 40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY.
SATURDAY WILL BE WINDY AGAIN...HOWEVER THE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY
SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY SO SHOULD NOT SEE THE SAME MAGNITUDE WINDS.
AS MENTIONED...TEMPS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE UNSEASONABLY COOL FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AS CANADIAN AIR MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH BEHIND THE LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE 70 MARK IN SOME AREAS BUT
WILL REBOUND BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
BMD
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD ARE WITH WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS UP TO 34 KT POSSIBLE BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON...AND MVFR CONDITIONS ENDING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS.
RODRIGUEZ
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EXITED THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MAIN CLOUD SHIELD
SLOWLY MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
INDIANA. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO EXIT THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY SOME LINGERING SCATTERED MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS REMAINING. DO ANTICIPATE SOME DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT ONCE
AGAIN TODAY...BUT WITH CLOUD SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM TO HELP FILL IN ANY REMAINING GAPS BY THE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS OF AROUND 5KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME BUT EXPECT
THESE TO EXIT/SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE EVENING WITH SKIES GOING
CLEAR AS SYSTEM EXITS AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST.
BIG DISCUSSION REMAINS WITH THE WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHICH LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY GUSTY THROUGHOUT. AS SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS WHILE DEPARTING TO THE NORTH...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BE RATHER TIGHT ALONG WITH SOME COOLER AIR MOVING IN. THIS WILL
HELP WINDS TO INCREASE TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 22KT POSSIBLE BY MID
MORNING...AND THEN GUSTS UP TO 34KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE GUSTS DROPPING OFF BY AROUND THE 03Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT
ANTICIPATING A DECOUPLING ATMOSPHERE TO HELP OFFSET SOME OF THE
GUSTS. ALTHOUGH IF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MIXED FURTHER INTO THE
NIGHT...GUSTS COULD BE OBSERVED LONGER ESPECIALLY WITH FAIRLY
STRONG WINDS NOT TOO FAR OFF THE GROUND.
RODRIGUEZ
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH MVFR CONDITIONS ENDING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AND VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH WIND DIRECTION AND
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE WITH SPEED.
RODRIGUEZ
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SATURDAY-12Z THURSDAY...UPDATED 06Z...
SATURDAY...VFR. MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...VFR. MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TS.
WEDNESDAY...CHANCE OF SHRA/TS.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.MARINE...
243 PM CDT
A LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO WESTERN IOWA. THIS LOW WILL MOVE
EAST TO NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE PRESSURE OF
THE LOW WILL FALL TO 29.4 INCHES BY THEN. THIS RAPID PRESSURE FALL
WILL CREATE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A STRONG WIND OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO LAKE HURON TO CENTRAL
KENTUCKY BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WILL GIVE A WEST TO NORTHWEST
WIND OVER LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY. THE WIND WILL REACH GALE FORCE
FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY EVENING...THE LOW WILL BE IN SOUTHERN ONTARIO
...JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON. THE LOW HAVING A LOWER PRESSURE AND
A LARGE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL GIVE A STRONG
WIND UP TO GALES FRIDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL LIE FROM NEW YORK
TO SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND A HIGH WILL MOVE INTO KANSAS BY FRIDAY
NIGHT. WE EXPECT THE WIND TO DIMINISH IN SPEED SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ080-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...1 PM FRIDAY TO 1 PM
SATURDAY.
GALE WARNING...LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-LMZ565-LMZ567-
LMZ868...1 PM FRIDAY TO 5 PM SATURDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS
UNTIL 1 PM FRIDAY.
GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745...1 PM
FRIDAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
FXUS63 KIND 030445 AFDIND AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 1245 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010 .UPDATE... THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW && .SYNOPSIS... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF FOR A FEW DAYS...BUT WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/... THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE QPF AND POPS AS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. FRO-PA LOOKS TO WAIT UNTIL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF CLEARING BETWEEN PREVIOUS SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND THE APPROACHING STORMS FROM ILLINOIS HAS ALLOWED OUR AREA TO DESTABILIZE A BIT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO HAVE CAPE VALUES NEAR 1000. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION HAS INCREASED A BIT AS THE SFC TEMPS HAVE DECREASED THIS EVENING... SO STORMS MAY BECOME MORE ELEVATED INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THE STORMS SHOULD STILL HAVE GOOD FORCING FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF CENTRAL INDIANA AND SHOULD AFFECT THAT REGION THRU MIDNIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ACCOMPANYING THESE STORMS SINCE LATE AFTERNOON AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING BEHIND THE INITIAL LINE AND ALONG THE DEW POINT GRADIENT... THEREFORE INCREASED QPF TO NEAR 0.7" ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CENTRAL INDIANA AND WENT WITH LIKELY POPS THRU 06Z AND DECREASED POPS AND QPF TO THE SOUTHEAST. KEPT MIN TEMPS AS EARLIER WITH TRENDING TO MOS... BUT MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED DEPENDING ON TIMING OF DRIER AIR ARRIVAL. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... SHOWERS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...AND WILL MOST LIKELY EXIT THE REGION BY LATE MORNING ON FRIDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL BACK TO MORE CLIMO NORMAL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SINCE THERE SEEMS TO BE GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS FOR A SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMP TREND...USED A MATCH MOS BLEND FOR THIS PERIOD. RADITIONAL CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK OPTIMUM FRI OR SAT NIGHT AS WINDS STAY AOA 5-7 KTS...BUT SKIES WILL BE CLEAR. SOME BREEZY NW WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY FOR FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY TO A LESSER EXTENT ON SAT. HIGHS THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH LOWS AROUND 50. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... GFS AND ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT INITIALLY AS A LARGE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUING THE DRY WEATHER. GIVEN THE COOL 850MB TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF BELOW NORMAL LOWS ON MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS ON MONDAY AS RETURN FLOW SET US. HERE WILL START A SLOW WARMING TREND EACH DAY THROUGH MID WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY GFS AND ECMWF PUSH THE WEAK TAIL OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE AS WELL AS TIMING AND PROGRESSION THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THIS FEATURE REMAIN SUSPECT. AT THIS POINT DO NOT FEEL THIS ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE WET...BUT DEPENDING ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE RIDGE CHANCES STILL REMAIN. THUS HAVE INCLUDED LOW CHANCE POPS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR THIS LOW PRECIPITATION AMOUNT EVENT. && .AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 03/06Z TAFS/... VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF TRANSIENT RESTRICTIONS IN PRECIP/POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL RESTRICTIONS. COMPLEX FORECAST THIS PKG AS PREFRONTAL CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER TONIGHT ACROSS ILLINOIS SOUTHWEST INTO MISSOURI. THE ENVIRONMENT IS LESS SUPPORTIVE ACROSS THE SITES...AND CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AS IT APPROACHED THE AREA...BUT DECENT DYNAMIC SUPPORT MAY KEEP THESE STORMS GOING AS THEY CROSS THE AREA. HUF APPEARS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THUNDER TONIGHT AS NEARBY PORTION OF THE COMPLEX LOOKS MOST ROBUST ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC...AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS THERE EARLY. AT OTHER SITES...UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THUNDER IS GREATER...AND HAVE CHOSEN TO HIGHLIGHT WITH VCSH/CB. TOMORROW...AMPLE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED UNDER UPPER TROUGH...AS WELL AS BREEZY POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 26KT EXPECTED FROM 280-290 DEGREES. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TDUD/SMF NEAR TERM...AB/JAS SHORT TERM...SMF LONG TERM....JP AVIATION...NIELD
FXUS61 KILN 030542 AFDILN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 142 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010 .SYNOPSIS... A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A DRY AND MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... UPDATED ZONES TO ADJUST FIRST PERIOD WORDING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. FORCING REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT SO THINK ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN MORE SCATTERED. INSTABILITY IS ALSO MARGINAL WHICH SHOULD HELP LIMIT THUNDERSTORM THREAT. WE MAY END UP WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THICKER CLOUDS SHOULD NOT MOVE IN THERE UNTIL LATE. WILL GENERALLY RANGE TEMPS FROM LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS OUR AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR EASTERN FA IN THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS OUR EAST AND WILL BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. DIURNAL TIMING IS UNFAVORABLE THOUGH AND INSTABILITIES REMAIN LIMITED SO JUST EXPECT SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO BE POSSIBLE. GOOD CAA WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAJORITY OF ANY WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SO WILL JUST GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. WILL NUDGE HIGH TEMPS DOWN A BIT FOR FRIDAY AS CLOUDS/PCPN AND THEN DEVELOPING CAA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE 70S OVER ALL BUT POSSIBLY OUR FAR SOUTHEAST. FALL LIKE AIRMASS WILL THEN BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. 850 MB TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES ARE ONLY SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WILL NOT GO QUITE THAT COOL THOUGH AS WE SHOULD HAVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. THE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP SOME FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER BY SATURDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SET UP FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 40S POSSIBLE IN OUTLYING AREAS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... GENERALLY USED BLEND OF 00Z ECMWF/12Z GFS WITH SLIGHTLY CLOSER LEANING TOWARD GFS. UPPER TROUGH WILL BE QUICK TO LIFT OUT ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING RIDGING TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY INTO THE 11-13 DEG C RANGE BY LATE SUNDAY...AND INTO THE UPPER TEENS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING TEMPS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S BOTH DAYS. BOTH MODELS AGREE ON FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE TO ALLOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DROP INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. BOTH MODELS SUFFERING FROM RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENS...WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD LOW CHANCE POPS FOR WEDS AND WEDS NIGHT. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... COLD FRONT WILL CROSS TAF SITES EARLY TODAY. INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN MAY HAVE SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER IN IT BUT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THE LINE HAS DIMINISHED SIGNIFICANTLY. STARTED WITH A LOWERING OF THE CIGS BUT STILL VFR WITH INITIAL SHOT OF RAIN. TRIED TO TEMPO THE HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN A SHORTER TIME FRAME...AROUND 14Z CVG/LUK/DAY...15Z ILN AND 16-17Z CMH/LCK FOR BEST SHOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE WARM SECTOR BUT WILL LIKELY NOT SEE STRONG GUSTS UNTIL THEY GO WNW BEHIND THE FRONT. A STRONG CLEARING SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH THE GUSTY WINDS. STRATOCU/STRATUS FRACTUS MAY LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD NOT CONSTITUTE A CEILING PAST AN HOUR OR TWO OF THE END OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...NONE. KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JGL NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO/JGL SHORT TERM...JGL LONG TERM...HAWBLITZEL AVIATION...FRANKS
FXUS63 KLMK 030444 AFDLMK AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 1244 AM EDT FRI SEP 3 2010 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND FRIDAY)... WELL-ADVERTISED COLD FRONT IS NOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND IS BEING DRIVEN EASTWARD BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S/CANADIAN BORDER. EXPECT THIS FRONT TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE OHIO RIVER AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING A FEW HOURS AHEAD OF IT AND FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND IT AS WELL. THE LATTER OCCURRING AS THE ABOVE-MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT BY ROUGHLY 6 HOURS. EXPECT GUSTY WEST NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES BY IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH SKIES QUICKLY CLEARING FOR LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL DEPEND ON EXACTLY HOW QUICK THE SKIES CLEAR UP...BUT WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE COLD AIR ADVECTION COMING IN. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS AROUND 80. THE RECORD LONG STREAK OF 105 DAYS WITH HIGHS 80 OR ABOVE MAY NOT REACH 106 SHOULD THE HIGH AT KSDF STAY BELOW...BUT 107 DAYS LOOKS OUT OF THE QUESTION...SEE THE LONG TERM FORECAST. STILL NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE TOO GREAT. WHILE THE FRONT IS STRONG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...THE CONVERGENCE ALONG IT IS STILL BEING TEMPERED BY THE MAJOR HURRICANE TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOOK FOR SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AS THE FRONT WITH THE SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKE...BUT THE DYNAMICS ARE NOT THERE FOR TOO MUCH. RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE STILL AVERAGING AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH WITH THE SREF DATA AND QPF FORECAST DOES NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM THAT. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)... FRI NIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT... UPR LEVEL TROF...BEHIND CDFNT...WILL MOVE ACRS THE GREAT LAKES/OH VLY FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT. AFTERWARD...ROCKIES/PLAINS RIDGE WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EWD TO THE MS VLY BY SUN NIGHT WITH NW FLOW GRADUALLY RELAXING ACRS OUR FA DURG THE PERIOD. ASSOCIATED CDFNT AND POST FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS SHUD BE WELL E/S OF OUR FA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. PLAINS SFC RIDGE WILL THEN MOVE EWD...REACHING THE LOWER OH VLY SAT NIGHT/SUN. TIL THEN...AN INFLUX OF DRIER/COOLER AIR ON NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S EARLY SUN MORNING. MON THRU THU... THIS PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY INCREASING TEMPS (TO AROUND 90 MAXS) AND DEWPOINTS (TO AROUND 60) BY WED AND THU. UPR LEVEL RIDGE ACRS THE SCNTRL/SERN U.S. WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY WX MAKER ACRS THE LOWER OH VLY MON AND TUE. WITH SFC HI PRES ACRS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES/APPALACHIANS...RETURN FLOW/SLY COMPONENT OF WIND...WILL BOOST TEMPS FROM SUN TO MON AND GRADUALLY BOOST BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE AS WELL THRU THE PERIOD. FOR WED AND THU...UPR LEVEL RIDGE CENTER SHIFTS A BIT TO THE SE...RESULTING IN STRONGER SW FLOW ACRS OUR REGION WHICH WILL DECELERATE A WEAKENING CDFNT DROPPING SEWD ACRS THE OH VLY. WITH INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WEST/NORTH EDGE OF RIDGE...WILL INSERT LOW CHC POPS BEGINNING WED NIGHT INTO THU AS FRONT STALLS ACRS THE LOWER OH VLY. TEMPS SHUD MAX OUT TUE AND WED FROM THE UPR 80S TO LOWER 90S...SOME 10 DEGS ABOVE EARLY SEP NORMS. && .AVIATION (06Z TAF ISSUANCE)... AT 04Z A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM CHICAGO TO THE OZARKS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE EAST THIS MORNING...WITH FROPA AT THE TERMINALS EXPECTED IN THE 12Z TO 15Z TIME FRAME. AT THIS TIME IT SEEMS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED ENOUGH TO SIMPLY HAVE VCSH WITH CB CLOUD TYPE FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THOUGH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT THE SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. WNW WINDS WILL RUSH IN AND WILL LIKELY GUST INTO THE 18 TO 23 KNOT RANGE. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM........RJS LONG TERM.........DK/11 AVIATION..........13
FXUS63 KPAH 030422 AAA AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1122 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST ARE POPS TONIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION RETURNS TO POPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY HAS FINALLY DRIED UP. WOULD EXPECT THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL INDICATING THAT THE FRONT WILL RIP THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. EXAMINATION OF MODEL SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE REGION STILL NOT INDICATING ROBUST FORCING OR INSTABILITY TO WARRANT LIKELY OR BETTER POPS WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT. FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED CONVECTION...LIKELY EFFECTING THE KMVN AREA 03Z-06Z...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 06Z-12Z. AS SUCH...LIMITED POPS TO AROUND 50 WITH SCATTERED WORDING. WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH WIDESPREAD QPF...ON AVERAGE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN OMAHA AND KANSAS CITY...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S BEHIND IT AND GUSTY WINDS OVER 30KTS ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA. CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL DATA HAS DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS FORECAST MAY NOT BE DRY OR COOL ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL AND VERY DRY...WITH MONDAY WARMING UP TO AROUND 90 IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECWMF HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE THEY DEVELOP NEXT WEEK. THEY ARE NOW SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND COASTAL REGION. THE CONSENSUS IS NOW FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AROUND THE RIDGE AND TOWARD THE QUAD STATE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE 00Z ECMWF FOR POP POSITIONING...HOLDING THEM OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE AND POPS WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. && .AVIATION... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH BY 12Z FRIDAY...TURNING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ JAP/RST
FLUS43 KGRR 030110 HWOGRR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 910 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010 MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-031045- MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON- MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON- INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON- 910 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN BETWEEN 11 PM THIS EVENING AND 2 AM THIS MORNING. A FEW OF THOSE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WEST OF ROUTE 131. DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTING ARE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE BY THE BEACHES ALONG THE SHORE TO THE FIRST SET OF DUNES. SOME OF THE RAIN TONIGHT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY. RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF A HALF INCH PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE MAIN STORM MOTION WILL BE NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY. SOME GUSTS OVER 40 MPH MAY OCCUR INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND ANY LOOSE ITEMS OUTSIDE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$ LMZ844>849-031045- ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI- HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI- WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI- 910 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT WINDS AND WAVES WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TONIGHT. A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE LAKE BETWEEN 10 PM AND MIDNIGHT WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES PLUS NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN VERY HEAVY WIND DRIVEN RAIN. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY GALE FORCE WINDS ARE PREDICTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BUILD THE WAVES TO OVER 6 FEET...RESULTING IN HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT. RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$ MJS MEADE WDM
FLUS43 KIWX 022019 HWOIWX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 419 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010 INZ003-LMZ043-046-MIZ077-032030- LA PORTE-NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI- MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-BERRIEN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...NILES... BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN 419 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010 /319 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA... SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT. ALSO THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY MORNING AND A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME ACROSS BERRIEN AND LAPORTE COUNTIES. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX $$ INZ004>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ078>081-OHZ001-002-004-005- 015-016-024-025-032030- ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-PULASKI- MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI- WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-CASS MI- ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY- PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOUTH BEND...MISHAWAKA...ELKHART... GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER... AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE... PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...WINONA LAKE... COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...MONTICELLO... BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...NORTH MANCHESTER... HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...BERNE...MARION... HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS... STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON... ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA... PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA 419 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010 /319 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO... NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. && STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX $$
FLUS43 KLOT 030355 HWOLOT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1055 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019- 040400- WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE- DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON- IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON- 1055 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 /1155 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. .DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT. WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED: THUNDERSTORMS...THE STRONGEST MAY PRODUCE: CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING: NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA THROUGH 1 AM CDT. DISCUSSION: A POTENT COLD FRONT WAS SLOWLY SLIDING EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST ILLINOIS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 50KTS AND IS FAIRLY UNIFORM FROM THE WEST...AND VEERING NORTHWEST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL REMAINS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. IN ADDITION PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF NEARLY 2 INCHES EXTENDS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF DOWNPOURS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE INDIANA SHORE OF LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ LMZ740>745-040400- WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR- WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND- NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY- GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY- 1055 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE ILLINOIS NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...WITH STRONG WINDS PRODUCING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO GALE FORCE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH SATURDAY...BUT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HIGH WAVES AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ESPECIALLY FOR THE INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868- 870-872-874-876-878-040400- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TWO RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE- 1055 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT. WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GALE FORCE WINDS TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. && COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO $$ BEACHLER
FLUS43 KIND 030004 HWOIND HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 804 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010 INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-040015- CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY- BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE- PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN- JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW- DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS- 804 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AGAIN...NONE OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE...BUT ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. && MORE INFORMATION...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND...AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL LOWERCASE) $$ AB/JAS
FLUS41 KILN 022118 HWOILN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 518 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010 INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-032130- WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO- SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT- PENDLETON-BRACKEN-ROBERTSON-MASON-LEWIS-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE- SHELBY-LOGAN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON- FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY- FAIRFIELD-BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERMONT-BROWN- HIGHLAND-ADAMS-PIKE-SCIOTO- 518 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL INDIANA...SOUTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...CENTRAL OHIO...MIAMI VALLEY OF OHIO...SOUTH CENTRAL OHIO...SOUTHWEST OHIO AND WEST CENTRAL OHIO. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$
FLUS43 KLMK 021902 HWOLMK HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY 302 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-031000- ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN- CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY- BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY- JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY- SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY- FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY- MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY- GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY- TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY- ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY- CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY- 302 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2010 /202 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE OCCASIONAL BUT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES THROUGH THE REGION. LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ RJS
FLUS43 KPAH 022050 HWOPAH HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 350 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-031000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 350 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE QUAD STATE TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL ENTER THE AREA AROUND 10 PM AND PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS EVENING. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AND WEAKEN AS THEY SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE QUAD STATE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY. ANY STORMS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. $$ DRS
FXUS63 KARX 022005 AFDARX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 305 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE...SHRA CHANCES TONIGHT/FRI... WINDS FRI...TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. 18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD LOW PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF LK WINNIPEG WITH A BROAD PRESSURE TROUGH SOUTH INTO WI AND EASTERN IA. SFC OBS PLACED THE COLD FRONT NEAR A KDLH-KMSP-KDSM LINE...MAKING STEADY PROGRESS EAST. WV IMAGERY DEPICTED A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN SD/NORTHERN NEB. BROAD AREA OF SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA SOUTHERN MN/WESTERN IA IN THE FORCING/ LIFT AHEAD OF THE SD/NEB SHORTWAVE. LEADING EDGE OF THIS PRECIP MOVING INTO THE WEST END OF THE FCST AREA AS OF 18Z. MORE SHRA/TSRA OVER EASTERN ND/ NORTHWEST MN WITH DEEP CONVERGENCE/LIFT UNDER THE COLD CORE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. EAST OF THE MN/IA SHRA...MUCH OF WI/EASTERN IA CATCHING A PERIOD OF PARTLY-MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE 70S-LOWER 80S. NO BIG ERRORS NOTED WITH 02.12Z MODEL INITIALIZATIONS...THOUGH DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS AGAIN NOTED ON SHORTWAVE DETAILS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. SHORT-TERM SOLUTIONS QUITE SIMILAR AS THE STRONG TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT/FRI THEN RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN BY SUN/SUN NIGHT. DPROG/DT OF 500MB HGTS AT 02.12Z SHOWED MODEL RUNS OF 31.12Z AND 01.12Z VERIFIED WELL ACROSS NOAM WITH BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TO ECMWF. THRU 36HRS MODELS CONVERGING TO A TIGHT CONSENSUS FAVORING THE FASTER OF EARLIER SOLUTIONS AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. GFS WITH THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AT 36HRS. MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINS GOOD THRU 60HRS...TRENDING TOWARD A COMPROMISE OF THE EARLIER RUNS AS THE PATTERN SLOWLY PROGRESSES AND THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO OR/WA. FOR 60-84HRS THE MODEL CONSENSUS TREND IS TOWARD THE FASTER OF THE EARLIER SOLUTIONS AS THE NEXT TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY TO ECMWF AT 60 AND 84HRS. CHECK OF OBS VS. MODEL DATA AT 18Z SHOWED MODELS GOOD WITH THE LK WINNIPEG SFC LOW...BUT GENERALLY A BIT FAST/TOO FAR EAST WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS MN/IA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. PER WV IMAGERY... MODELS GENERALLY APPEAR A BIT FAST WITH THE SD/NEB SHORTWAVE AS WELL...SLOWER NAM LOOKS A BIT BETTER WITH THE SHORTWAVE. ECMWF APPEARED BEST WITH THE 12Z-18Z PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MODELS TRENDING TOWARD A TIGHTER CONSENSUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND NO PREFERRED DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUN...FAVORED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS. SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE ON THE GOOD SIDE THIS CYCLE. FOR THE SHORT TERM...COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH/ ROTATE EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. DISTANCE-SPEED TOOL APPLIED TO TRAILING EDGE OF MN/IA PRECIP AREA PLACES MOST OF IT EAST OF ALL BUT THE FAR EAST SIDE OF THE FCST AREA BY 00Z. SOUTHEAST ND/WEST CENTRAL MN CONVECTION ROTATES SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD CORE OF THE TROUGH AND DEEP CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE. INSTABILITY/TSRA WITH THIS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT SCT SHRA EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA WITH THE TROUGH AXIS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHRA CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTH END OF THE FCST AREA THRU TONIGHT LOOKS GOOD...WHILE DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUES WRAPS IN FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTH PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...925-500MB FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY OVER THE AREA FRI... WITH SOME 925-700MB MOISTURE WRAPPING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DEEP CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY TO 700MB. LIMITED -SHRA CHANCE IN THE MORNING TO NORTHEAST OF I-94...THEN OVER THE EASTERN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE 925-700MB MOISTURE ROTATES BY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHT ACROSS THE AREA FRI BEHIND THE LOW...WITH 850MB WINDS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE ON FRI. MODEL SOUNDINGS OVER THE WEST END OF THE FCST AREA INDICATE POTENTIAL MIXING TO 850MB FRI AFTERNOON...IF SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY. STRONGER 850MB COLD ADVECTION/SUBSIDENCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/FRI MORNING AND IS EAST INTO WI BY THE AFTERNOON. MAY YET NEED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE WIND PRONE HIGHER TERRAIN/OPEN COUNTRY AREAS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN FOR A PORTION OF FRI...BUT WILL DEFER TO MID CREW WITH HOPEFULLY A BETTER HANDLE ON WHERE THE WEST EDGE OF THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON FRI. MAY YET NEED A SMALL SHRA CHANCE EARLY EVENING OVER THE EAST END OF THE FCST AREA...BUT LEFT THIS DRY AS DEEPER 925-700MB APPEARS TO BE EXITING EAST OF THE AREA BY 00Z SAT. QUIETER/COOLER WEATHER FOR SAT THRU SUN NIGHT AS THE TROUGH EXITS EAST AND HGTS RISE AHEAD OF RIDGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NORTHWEST FLOW EAST OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS ADVECTS A COOL...DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR SAT/SUN. SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT...FOR WHAT SHOULD BE CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...PERHAPS EVEN SOME UPPER 30S IN USUAL COLD AREAS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94. TEMPS BEGIN TO WARM SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST...THE NEXT LOW DEEPENS OVER SD/NEB AND SOUTHERLY FLOW SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT THRU SUN NIGHT GENERALLY SIMILAR AND LOOK WELL TRENDED. FRI WILL FEEL LIKE FALL WITH THE BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS AND HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY 02.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF/UKMET ALL IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON MON. MODEL TREND ON MONDAY FAVORS STRONGER/MORE PROGRESSIVE OF EARLIER RUNS AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TROUGH/ENERGY MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE STRONGER TREND AS THE TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES ON TUE...WITH ECMWF SHOWING A BIT BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY THAN THE OTHERS. TREND IS SLOWER/STRONGER WITH THIS TROUGH/ENERGY INTO EASTERN NOAM WED/THU...MORE IN LINE WITH EARLIER ECMWF RUNS. HOWEVER...ECMWF APPEARS FASTER AMONG MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WITH THE NEXT TROUGHING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS TUE-THU. GFS WITH THE BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TUE-THU. EVEN WITH THE DIFFERENCES ALOFT...MODEL SOLUTIONS MORE SIMILAR THAN NORMAL WITH THE SFC LOW STRENGTHS/POSITIONS IN THE PLAINS MON-THU. HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT WEATHER OUTCOMES FOR THE AREA DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OR HOW FAST MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTH AHEAD OF THESE NEXT LOWS/TROUGHS INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. WITH NO MODEL FAVORITE THIS CYCLE AND WEATHER OUTCOME DEPENDENT ON SMALLER SCALE FEATURES/TIMING...FAVORED THE MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS THIS CYCLE. LONG-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE AVERAGE THIS CYCLE. WARM FRONT RETURNS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA MON...AHEAD OF THE NEXT RATHER STRONG LOW TO LIFT FROM SD/NEB TO NORTHWEST MN. GFS MORE ROBUST WITH 850MB MOISTURE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO/OVER THIS FRONT. EITHER WAY...WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AND SOME AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WARRANTS AT LEAST A SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCE FOR MON. WITH PRESENT MODEL CONSENSUS TIMING...SFC-MID LEVEL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA MON NIGHT...INTO WHAT SHOULD BE A MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF IT. LOWERED SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR TUE THRU WED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE/DRIER AIRMASS SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. HOWEVER...WITH MODEL SHOWING SOME RUN-TO-RUN TIMING/DETAIL DIFFERENCES BY TUE/WED...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO COMPLETELY DRY AGAINST HPC/MODEL CONSENSUS 30-40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES THESE PERIODS. NEXT LOW DEEPENS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THU...WITH A RESURGENCE OF LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. AGAIN TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH ECMWF THE FASTER/MORE ROBUST WITH THIS SYSTEM. 30 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ON THU PER HPC GUIDANCE REASONABLE FOR NOW. FAVORED A BLEND OF GFS MEX/ENSEMBLE MOS AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS/LOWS THRU THE PERIOD...THOUGH IF ONE OR MORE OF THE DAYS WOULD END UP MORE OVERCAST/RAINY GRID FCST HIGHS COULD BE 5F TO 10F TOO WARM. && .AVIATION...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND SOME SHOWERS TO THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING... PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN WISCONSIN. SOME STRATUS WILL BE FOUND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CLOUD BASES AROUND 3KFT. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING....BEFORE SURFACE HEATING DECREASES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS TROUGH MOVES INTO EASTERN ONTARIO...AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...PARTICULARLY AFTER DAYBREAK. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STATUS DECK MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND IMPACTING THE TAF SITES LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON....AND MAY PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIGS. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON. && .ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT/LONG TERM...RRS AVIATION..........WETENKAMP
FXUS63 KFSD 030042 AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 742 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .DISCUSSION... ADJUSTED GRIDS EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE SSWRD PUSH TO ISOLD SHRA/TSRA INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT TREND IN HAVING THESE VANISH BY 03Z ALONG WITH DIURNAL CYCLE LOOKS GOOD. ADVY ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z WITH WNDS ALREADY WORKING ON DECOUPLING IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND THIS AS WELL GRADUAL CLEARING WL BE FEATURE OF NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACRS THE AREA...WITH GRADIENT FAVORING MORE OF A STEADY NR 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WL PROBABLY TWEEK TRENDS SOMEWHAT...BUT OVERALL FCST LOOKS GOOD. /CHAPMAN && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST THRU 00Z SAT. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 WL QUICKLY DIMINISH THRU 01Z-02Z...AND WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS WL EASE AS WELL. WNDS SHUD RECOUPLE BY MID MORNING FRI AND GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KTS PSBL MAINLY ALG/E OF I29. SCT VFR CU EXPECTED BY 18Z. /CHAPMAN && .PREV DISCUSSION... SCT SHWRS CONT TO DEVELOP INTO NWRN PART OF FCST AREA AND THEY SHUD CONT TO DVLP AND SPREAD ESEWD FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN. THO STRONGEST AND MOST WDSPRD ACTVTY IS TO THE N...SCT SHWRS W/ 50 PCT POP FAR NERN FCST AREA ALONG WITH ISOLD TSTMS HON/FSD/SPW AND NORTHEAST LOOKS GOOD. THIS IS ALL TO 00Z WHICH IS THE START OF TNGT PERIOD. WILL DECREASE SHOWER MENTION TO THE ENE AFT 00Z AND CUT TSTMS FOR ERY THIS EVE. ISOLD SHWRS CUD LINGER A LTL PAST 03Z FAR NERN/ECNTRL FCST AREA AS UPPER WV PASSES BY...OTRW SKIES SHOULD BE GOING PRETTY CLEAR AFTER THAT TIME WITH DRIER AIR MOVNG IN AND HEATING TURNED OFF. WIND ADVY FOR WRN FORECAST AREA HAS BECOME VALID. WINDS ARE NOT QUITE THERE YET BUT SHOULD INCREASE SOME MORE THRU 4PM AS RUC SHOWS BL WINDS STILL INCREASING. WILL THEREFORE KEEP AS IS TO 7 PM. WINDS WILL DECREASE STEADILY ERY THIS EVE AND SETTLE DOWN TO AROUND 10 MPH FOR THE NIGHT A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET. GUIDANCE LOW TEMPS LOOK GENERALLY OK...COOL BUT NOT AS COOL AS IT COULD BE WITHOUT THE LINGERING SFC AND LOW LEVEL WINDS. / WILLIAMS THE WEEKEND CONTS TO LOOK PLEASANT AND DRY. SAT WL REMAIN COOL AND BREEZY WHILE SUNDAY WL SEE LESS WIND AND WARMER TEMPS CLOSER TO NORM. HIGH TEMPS ON SAT WILL BE A FEW DEG EITHER SIDE OF 70 MOST PLACES. COOLEST MORN WL BE SAT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA. LOWS WL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. WRMFNT WL LIFT N OF CWA LATE SUN NITE. CUD SEE AN ISOLD TRW ACRS N SUN NITE ON NOSE OF WAA...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO WL LEAVE DRY. CDFNT WL PUSH EWD ACRS CWA MON INTO MON EVE. NOT SURE IF ANY STORMS WL GET GOING AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY COMPLETELY CAP CWA. SO FOR THAT REASON WL ONLY KEEP 20 TO 30% POPS IN FCST WITH BEST CHC ACRS ERN CWA MON AFTN AND EVE JUST AHEAD OF FNT. SHUD WARM UP NICELY AHEAD OF THIS FNT ON MON WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. PLENTY OF MIXING BEHIND FNT WL ALSO KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO NORM AND ALSO BREEZY TO WINDY. TUES SHUD BE DRY AND PLEASANT ACRS CWA AS FNT STALLS STALLS ACRS NEB AND SRN IA. THIS FNT WL BEGIN TO LIFT N TUES NITE AND PERSIST ACRS CWA INTO THU. MAJOR TROF DIGGING ACRS WRN US WL BRING PLENTY OF LLM N INTO CWA WHICH CUD PRODUCE FAIRLY WDSPRD TRW N OF BNDRY WED NITE INTO THU. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KDMX 030440 AAA AFDDMX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 1140 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 ...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED ALONG THE 700MB TEMP GRADIENT BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PASS THROUGH IOWA AROUND 00Z-03Z. AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES...IT SHOULD MARK THE END OF THE RAIN AND ALLOW THE COOL NORTHWEST FLOW TO FILTER INTO THE STATE. HOWEVER...A SECOND MINOR TROUGH IS IN CLOSE PURSUIT OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE AND MAY BRING SHOWERS INTO THE NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES OF OUR CWA THIS EVENING. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVERNIGHT...BUT INVERSION SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED ENOUGH TO KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT FROM REACHING THE SURFACE. MIN TEMPS WERE A BLEND OF GFS AND MOS GUIDANCE AS TEMPS DROP TO THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... QUIET BEGINNING TO THE MID/LONG RANGE AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION IS CONCERNED. HOWEVER FALL AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO JUST BELOW 10C. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. CAA AND STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHT SFC PRES GRADIENT SHOULD MAKE FOR A WINDY DAY FRIDAY. BUFKIT VALUES SUGGEST MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT COULD SEND SOME SITES INTO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WINDIEST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW AS WELL. HIGH PRESSURE TO BECOME CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CWA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH A COOL DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. TEMPS WILL COOL OFF QUICKLY AND BE FAIRLY CHILLY DROPPING INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE STATE. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW KICKING ALOFT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. MAY SEE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP IN WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION AREA ALOFT. HOWEVER AIRMASS QUITE DRY AND SOUNDINGS NEVER REALLY MOISTEN UP MUCH. IF A BIT MORE MOISTURE EXPECTED COULD SEE SOME ELEVATED PRECIPITATION DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN US BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...SETTING UP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. WARM FRONT TO PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MAY SEE SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. AS SYSTEM LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS HUNG UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. MODELS IN SOME DISAGREEMENT IF IT STALLS OUT ACROSS SRN IA OR NRN MO...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS IN FOR NOW DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT/TIMING. OTHERWISE SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL ALLOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO PUSH BACK NORTHWARD LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN...JUST DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/PLACEMENT. THEREFORE DID KEEP POPS IN THE MID/HIGHER CHANCE CATEGORY TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .AVIATION... 03/06Z...CLEAR SKIES AND WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS NEAR KMCW AND KALO. POSSIBLE AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR NEAR MVFR CIGS WILL ROTATE AROUND INTO THESE TWO SITES AS WELL. CONFIDENCE THIS WILL OCCUR IS LOW ENOUGH TO EXCLUDE FROM TERMINALS AT THIS TIME. THE WIND WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH TOWARD 00Z. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...HINSBERGER LONG TERM...BEERENDS AVIATION...DONAVON
FXUS63 KDVN 022006 AFDDVN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 306 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .SYNOPSIS... COLD FRONT AT 19Z EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM JUST WEST OF LSE THROUGH ALO TO NEAR OTM. BEHIND THIS FRONT...AREA RADARS INDICATED SCATTERED AND MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WIDESPREAD IN A ROUGHLY 40 MILE WIDE AXIS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER FAR NORTHEAST IOWA...APPEARING ALONG THE EDGE OF A 8 DEG C CAP AT H7 AND WHERE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SURFACE FRONT HAS REACHED THE AIRMASS WITH CAPES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG THAT HAS DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN IA AND NW IL. MESOANALYSIS TRENDS OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS INDICATED THIS THERMAL RIDGE ALOFT...THAT HAS SO FAR SUPPRESSED CONVECTION...FLATTENING AND GETTING NUDGED EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS CENTERED OVER THE MO RIVER. WELL BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES IN NW IA WERE IN THE 60S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S...WHILE OUT AHEAD 70S TO LOWER 80S WERE COMMON IN THE LOCAL AREA WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND 70. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY... INITIAL CONCERN IS EVOLUTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO TEMPERATURES AS CANADIAN AIRMASS FLOODS INTO THE REGION. AS THE SURFACE FRONT...AND STRONGER MID LEVEL FORCING AND MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OUT WEST REACHES THE BETTER INSTABILITY THAT DEVELOPED OVER FORECAST AREA TODAY...WILL EXPECT MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SO FAR...CELLS HAVE BEEN RATHER ISOLATED...BUT MAY SEE A MORE LINEAR MODE DEVELOP WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ISOLATED CELLS...SUCH AS THOSE RECENTLY FORMING CLOSER TO THE GREATER INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA MAY ALSO HAVE A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT. RATHER FAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS SHOULD PRECLUDE A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. BASED ON CURRENT TIMING...THE BULK OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE EAST OF THE MS RIVER BY 00Z AND HAVE LOW POPS THERE CONFINED TO THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING. COLD ADVECTION W-NW WINDS COMMENCE TONIGHT AND STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AND KEPT HIGHS LIMITED TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...CONSISTENT WITH MIXING TO AT LEAST H8. WILL HAVE A LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING UPPER FLOW IN THE FAR NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE...SUBSIDENCE AND INCOMING DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE AREA DRY. FOR TONIGHT...STAYED CLOSER TO GUIDANCE BLEND IN THE 50S...AS SUPPORTED BY INCOMING DEWPOINTS AND UPSTREAM LOWS THIS MORNING. ..SHEETS.. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY... REGION WILL BE EMBEDDED IN STRONG NW FLOW SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROF SETS UP OVER THE NERN U.S. THE ECMWF IS STILL BRINGING SOME CHILLY H8 TEMPS INTO THE REGION WITH THE +3C H8 ISOTHERM VERY CLOSE TO THE NERN CWFA SATURDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE FOR SATURDAY WITH MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND HIGHS MID 60S TO MID 70S. FOR SUNDAY EVEN THOUGH THE H8 THERMAL TROF WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH EARLY IN THE MORNING...SO DROPPED MINS DOWN SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS EXPECTED LOWS. RETURN FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE AREA SO TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TO TREND BACK TOWARD NORMAL SUNDAY. THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WARM MOIST AIR TO SURGE NORTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH MODELS STILL POINTING TOWARD SOME WAA INDUCED ELEVATED SHRA/TSA. MONDAY LOOKS LIKE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH OF THE CWFA AND STRONG SLY FLOW IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. WITH GOOD MIXING EXPECTED TEMPS SHOULD CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT IS PROGGED MOVE INTO THE REGION AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE CWFA AS ANOTHER UPPER TROF DIGS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. A RENEWED SURGE OF GULF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE DIGGING TROF WILL INTERACT WITH THE STALLED BOUNDARY TO BRING ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. ..DLF.. && .AVIATION... CONDITIONS HAD IMPROVED TO VFR EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS MAY CONTINUE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE WITH CLEARING SKIES WEST WINDS AT 10 KTS OR LESS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS POSSIBLE AFTER 15Z. ..SHEETS.. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...NONE. IL...NONE. MO...NONE. && $$ SHEETS/DLF
FXUS63 KOAX 022002 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 302 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT IS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...WITH GUSTY NWRLY WINDS BRINGING IN DRIER AIRMASS. AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...BUT THINK MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN BY 00Z AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE PLAINS. DEWPOINTS AT 19Z WERE FALLING INTO THE 40S IN CNTRL NEB...AND EXPECT SIMILAR FALLING DEWPOINTS ACROSS NEB INTO WRN IA OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL WELL INTO THE 50S...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS STILL HOVERING AROUND 10 KT. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EXPECT DRY OR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. HIGHS IN OUR AREA SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY AFTN...THEN 75 TO 80 ON SATURDAY. MODELS HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT PCPN NORTH OF WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE LIFTING NWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... BUT FOR NOW WE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 80S SUNDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY IS PROBLEMATIC. BRISK SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF FRONT SUGGEST HIGHS IN UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. 00Z GFS MOS LOOKS BETTER TODAY THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. THE ECMWF...GFS AND GEM ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE AREA NOW WILL MOVE EWD AS RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS INTO SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT AND THEN PUSH OUT INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN OUR AREA TURNS FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE 12Z GFS WAS A LITTLE STRONGER AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF IN REGARDS TO MOVING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WEAK CLOSED LOW INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY. WE GENERALLY REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK AS A RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SERN U.S. AND A TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT FAR OUT...BUT THOSE ARE NOT CONSIDERED SIGNIFICANT FOR OUR AREA. IT LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY MOVE UP INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. && .AVIATION... TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK 18Z TAFS SKY CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...AND EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT/SCATTER THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NWRLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT GUSTS TO RETURN BY LATE MORNING. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MAYES LONG TERM....MILLER AVIATION...MAYES
FLUS43 KARX 030243 HWOARX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 940 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 IAZ008>011-018-019-029-030-MNZ079-086>088-094>096-WIZ017-029-032>034- 041>044-053>055-061-031000- ADAMS-ALLAMAKEE-BUFFALO-CHICKASAW-CLARK-CLAYTON-CRAWFORD-DODGE- FAYETTE-FILLMORE-FLOYD-GRANT-HOUSTON-HOWARD-JACKSON-JUNEAU-LA CROSSE- MITCHELL-MONROE-MOWER-OLMSTED-RICHLAND-TAYLOR-TREMPEALEAU-VERNON- WABASHA-WINNESHIEK-WINONA- 940 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST IOWA...AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 40 MPH. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM LABOR DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT. WIND REPORTS ON FRIDAY WOULD BE APPRECIATED. .EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATION... NO CALL IS SCHEDULED. $$ WETENKAMP/RIECK
FLUS43 KFSD 021622 HWOFSD HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1120 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2010 SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098- IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-031200- AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA- CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE- DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON- IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN- LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN- OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN- SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON- 1120 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA... SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON NORTHEAST OF A HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE IOWA LINE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. WIND AND FOG... WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM CHAMBERLAIN AND GREGORY EAST INTO PARTS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE THIS EVENING. FIRE DANGER... THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL REACH HIGH TO VERY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON IN GREGORY COUNTY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. && FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. $$
FLUS43 KDMX 030227 HWODMX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 927 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-081>086- 092>097-040230- EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO- POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-FRANKLIN-BUTLER-BREMER-SAC-CALHOUN- WEBSTER-HAMILTON-HARDIN-GRUNDY-BLACK HAWK-CRAWFORD-CARROLL-GREENE- BOONE-STORY-MARSHALL-TAMA-AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-DALLAS-POLK-JASPER- POWESHIEK-CASS-ADAIR-MADISON-WARREN-MARION-MAHASKA-ADAMS-UNION- CLARKE-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-TAYLOR-RINGGOLD-DECATUR-WAYNE-APPANOOSE- DAVIS- 927 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FRIDAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 25 TO 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN CENTRAL IOWA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS PERIOD. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ DONAVON
FLUS43 KDVN 020947 HWODVN HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 447 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007- 009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-031000- BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-BENTON-LINN-JONES-JACKSON-IOWA-JOHNSON- CEDAR-CLINTON-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON- HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-JO DAVIESS-STEPHENSON-CARROLL- WHITESIDE-ROCK ISLAND-HENRY IL-BUREAU-PUTNAM-MERCER-HENDERSON- WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK- 447 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...EAST CENTRAL IOWA...NORTHEAST IOWA...SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY...PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE REGION BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES...LIMITING INSTABILITY FOR STORMS. HOWEVER...IF THE SUN CAN COME OUT AND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 80S...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS FORECASTING A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY FOR MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. IF STRONG STORMS DO FORM...THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES PAST THIS EVENING...MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AREA RIVERS ARE EXPERIENCING FLOODING. PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD STATEMENTS AND FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER NEXT WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY. $$ ERVIN/HAASE
FLUS43 KOAX 022209 HWOOAX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 509 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034- 042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>090-092-031215- MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT- PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON- STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER- SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE- JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-PAWNEE- 509 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LABOR DAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL STALL NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER AND THEN ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. $$ NEZ091-093-031215- NEMAHA-RICHARDSON- 509 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MINOR FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM AROUND BROWNVILLE DOWNSTREAM THROUGH RULO. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL STALL NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER AND THEN ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM BROWNVILLE DOWNSTREAM TO RULO INTO LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. $$ CHERMOK
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FXUS63 KEAX 030541 AFDEAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1240 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT)... INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO DIMINISH ALOFT WHILE SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT PLOWING INTO EASTERN/CENTRAL MO. ISOLATED STORM SOUTH OF HARRISONVILLE AND ELONGATED PLUME OF STRATIFORM RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDER TO ITS NORTH WILL EXIT THE KANSAS CITY AREA JUST AFTER 7 PM...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA BEFORE 9 PM. QUITE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION REGION ACROSS THE KANSAS CITY AREA...SO FOLKS SHOULD PLAN ACCORDINGLY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...LINGERING MID CLOUD DECK SHOULD CLEAR WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH THIS EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND A SHARPLY DRIER AIRMASS EXCHANGE FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL WELL INTO THE 50S TONIGHT...SAVED ONLY BY NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL LOSE THEIR GUSTY CHARACTER AFTER SUNSET BUT REMAIN WELL MIXED OVERNIGHT. MANY AREAS WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE 40S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A GRADUAL MODERATION OCCURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST. WITH THE CHILLY LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT...EXPECT STEAM FOG TO BECOME PREVALENT AND POTENTIALLY DENSE ACROSS AREA LAKES AND RIVERS WHERE THE WATER TO AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL WILL BE QUITE LARGE. BOOKBINDER MEDIUM RANGE (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... PROGRESSIVE NRN STREAM FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WRN HEMISPHERE THROUGHOUT THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...FEATURING PREDOMINANT TROUGHING THROUGH THE WRN CONUS (NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AT LEAST 1-2 NORMALIZED STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW AVERAGE) AND SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BEING MAINTAINED ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS/SERN CONUS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE ENTIRE FLOW EVOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTIES HINGING THE EXACT DEPTH AND SPEED OF THE LEAD WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS/GREAT LAKES. HAVE HEDGED TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND MARKEDLY DEEPER 12Z GFS (VERSUS 00Z ECMWF)...WHICH HAS BETTER SUPPORT FROM A VAST MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL KEEP THE REGION WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF PERSISTENT NRN PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES ATTEMPTING TO PUSH SOUTH INTO MISSOURI...YET LIKELY STALLING AND WASHING OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE ADVERTISED TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...WITH A PREFERENCE TOWARDS THE WARMEST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY CONVECTIVE INFLUENCES AND RESIDUAL DAYTIME CLOUD COVER WOULD BE DETRIMENTAL TO TEMPERATURES ON ANY GIVEN DAY (MORE POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD). GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE FINAL DAYS OF THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE DRY...WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEK...AS INCREASING FLOW AMPLITUDE ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO TAP A BETTER SUBTROPICAL FEED AND ASSUMED SUBTLE WAVES EJECTING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. 21 && .AVIATION... FOR THE 06Z TAFS...WINDS EXPECTED TO STAY UP ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM DEVELOPING TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN EXPECTED TO KEEP SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD. PC && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KLSX 030500 AFDLSX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 1200 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010 .DISCUSSION... /355 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TSRA ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND THRU THE EVE HOURS. TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A PREFRONTAL TROF AND ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN AS THE LINE MOVE SEWD. EXPECT TSRA TO BE OUT OF THE CWA BY FRI MORNING WITH CLEARING BEHIND THE LINE WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA. MDLS AGREE WELL WITH LARGE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WITH DRY AND COOL AIR IN PLACE. MDLS PROG 8 TO 10C 850MB TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT...WHICH SHUD RESULT IN LWR TO MID 70S FOR HIGHS. WENT A LITTLE HIGHER SINCE IT IS STILL EARLY SEPT...BUT THIS IS TRENDED TWD THE COOLER MOS TEMPS. OVERALL...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE IN THE SHORT TERM FROM THE PREV FCST. TILLY EXTENDED (MON - THURS)... SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EXIT STAGE RIGHT INTO THE SERN CONUS GIVING US ONE MORE DAY OF COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR SUNDAY UNDER CLEAR SKIES. ANTICIPATE WITH LOW DEWPOINTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT THAT TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THEREAFTER SLY FLOW WILL RETURN USHERING WARMER AIR ACROSS THE RGN. H85 MID-LVL FLOW IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF IMPULSES THRU THE H5 LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE INTER-MTN WEST WILL VEER SWLY AND ADVECT +20-24C TEMPS. HAVE UPPED HIGH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MONDAY. DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACRS THE RGN IN ASSOC WITH A RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE AS IT CONTINUALLY DRIFTS INTO THE SERN CONUS. INTO TUE MDL SOLNS SUCCINCT IN HANDLING OF UPR LVL FEATURES AND DEEP SFC LOW OVER THE N-CNTRL CONUS. A SFC FRONTAL BNDRY IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE MO-IA BORDER BUT REMAIN FAIRLY MOISTURE STARVED AS THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SERN CONUS REMAINS WELL IN PLACE. WITH SFC AND MID-LVL SLY FLOW ADVECTING AN UNSTABLE TROPICAL AIRMASS NWD THRU THE RGN HAVE SLIGHT POPS FOR TUE ALONG THE STALLED SFC FRTL BNDRY BECOMING CATEGORICAL WED INTO THURS AS A DEEP H5 TROF BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD OUT OF THE INTER-MTN WEST. SOME UNCERTAINTY LIES WITH ANTECEDENT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED WITH ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PROCESSES AND POTENTIAL ASCENT ASSOC WITH UPR LVL IMPULSES EJECTING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LIFTING H5 TROF BY END OF THE FCST PD. HOW THIS WILL IMPACT SFC TEMPS REMAIN TO BE SEEN...FOR NOW ANTICIPATE NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. AS THE UPR LVL DISTURBANCE EJECTS NEWD INTO THE GREAT LKS RGN SFC HIGH PRES WILL BUILD THRU THE CNTRL PLAINS AND KICK THE INCLEMENT WEATHER EWD HOPEFULLY LEAVING US DRY BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SIPPRELL && .AVIATION... /1143 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ A FEW LINGERING SHRA WERE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO AND SOUTHWEST IL AT 05Z BUT PCPN WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF ALL TAF SITES BY 06Z. VFR CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND SCT DIURNAL CU EXPECTED TOMORROW. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME STEAM FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS TOWARDS AND JUST BEYOND THE END OF THE TAF PD DUE TO DECREASING WINDS...WARM RIVER/LAKE TEMPERATURES...AND MUCH COOLER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION. SPECIFICS FOR KSTL...VFR THROUGH THE PD. WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE BY MID TO LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KTS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. KANOFSKY && .LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. IL...NONE. && $$ WFO LSX
FXUS63 KPAH 030422 AAA AFDPAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 1122 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .UPDATE... UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. && .DISCUSSION... MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST ARE POPS TONIGHT...AND TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTENTION RETURNS TO POPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS THAT HAS BEEN SLOWLY INCHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY HAS FINALLY DRIED UP. WOULD EXPECT THAT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS IS STILL INDICATING THAT THE FRONT WILL RIP THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY 12Z FRIDAY. EXAMINATION OF MODEL SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE REGION STILL NOT INDICATING ROBUST FORCING OR INSTABILITY TO WARRANT LIKELY OR BETTER POPS WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT. FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE SCATTERED CONVECTION...LIKELY EFFECTING THE KMVN AREA 03Z-06Z...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA 06Z-12Z. AS SUCH...LIMITED POPS TO AROUND 50 WITH SCATTERED WORDING. WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH WIDESPREAD QPF...ON AVERAGE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BETWEEN OMAHA AND KANSAS CITY...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S BEHIND IT AND GUSTY WINDS OVER 30KTS ACROSS MUCH OF NEBRASKA. CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL DATA HAS DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE QUAD STATE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. THIS FORECAST MAY NOT BE DRY OR COOL ENOUGH OVER THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING...WHEN THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE OVERHEAD. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL AND VERY DRY...WITH MONDAY WARMING UP TO AROUND 90 IN MOST LOCATIONS. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. BASICALLY THE GFS AND ECWMF HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE NORTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE THEY DEVELOP NEXT WEEK. THEY ARE NOW SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE DOWN TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND COASTAL REGION. THE CONSENSUS IS NOW FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD AROUND THE RIDGE AND TOWARD THE QUAD STATE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE 00Z ECMWF FOR POP POSITIONING...HOLDING THEM OFF UNTIL DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BEST MOISTURE AND POPS WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. && .AVIATION... A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH BY 12Z FRIDAY...TURNING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KY...NONE. MO...NONE. IL...NONE. IN...NONE. && $$ JAP/RST
FXUS63 KSGF 030515 CCA AFDSGF AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1217 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010 ...UPDATE TO AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS IS ON CONVECTION FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)... THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...COLD FRONT IS ON THE MOVE AND NOW RESIDES FROM NEAR THE KC METRO TO EMPORIA TO JUST EAST OF WICHITA. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE...WITH MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE WITH STEADILY DECREASING CIN. THIS FRONT WILL OVERTAKE A BROAD PREFRONTAL TROUGH HEADING INTO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD TRIGGER A MULTICELLULAR LINE OF TSRA ALONG THE FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INCREASING TO AROUND 7 C/KM AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM...THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS. SFC TO 700MB THETAE DIFFERENCES APPROACH OR EXCEED 30K...WHICH IS ANOTHER INDICATOR OF STRONG DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL...UPWARDS OF 30KT COINCIDENT WITH THE SFC BOUNDARY AS THE BETTER WESTERLIES REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE AREA. AS A RESULT AN EVOLUTION TO A LINEAR MODE IS EXPECTED. THE RISK FOR HAIL IS A BIT MORE NEBULOUS AND MORE LIKELY DEPENDENT ON STORM STRUCTURE AS FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN ABOVE 14KFT. THE RISK FOR HAIL NEARING SEVERE LEVELS IS THERE...THOUGH LOWER THAN THE WIND RISK. WHILE THE TOR RISK IS ALWAYS NONZERO WITH CONVECTION...LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS ARE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC BOUNDARY AND ON THE ORDER OF 15KT...WHICH IS NOT IDEAL. BOTTOM LINE...WIND IS THE PRIMARY RISK WITH CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE COLD FRONT STEADILY WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. INDICATIONS FROM MESOSCALE MODELS INFER THAT THE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL AFFECT THE SW HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MORE SCT ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH. THIS IS PAUSE FOR CONCERN GIVEN HEAVY RAINS FROM YESTERDAY. EVEN WITH A PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM...PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.75 INCHES WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HIGH ONE HOUR RAINFALL RATES. WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS ADVERTISED FOR A LOCALIZED...THOUGH ELEVATED...FLASH FLOOD RISK. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...QUIET...PLEASANT WEATHER FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. GAGAN LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)... MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DECENT AGREEMENT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDWEST SUN/MON AND SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS FROM TUE ONWARD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AND REOPEN THE DOOR TO THE GULF. WARM AND MOIST AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SURGE BACK INTO THE REGION...WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH THE AREA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THERE IS CONCERN FOR INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAINFALL. INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE AN INCREASE IN DIURNAL BASED CONVECTION. HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES A BIT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND TEMPERED HIGHS A BIT BACK TOWARD AVERAGE GIVEN PROSPECTS OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP. GAGAN && .AVIATION... PILOTS FLYING IN AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AIRPORTS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A DRY CANADIAN AIRMASS WILL SPREAD THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI...CREATING A FEW DAYS OF FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM THE NORTHWEST. CRAMER && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$
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FLUS43 KEAX 021800 HWOEAX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 100 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-031100- ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE-JOHNSON KS- ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER-PUTNAM-SCHUYLER- HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR-BUCHANAN-CLINTON- CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY-RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON- RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD-CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS- COOPER-BATES-HENRY- 100 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WILL OVERSPREAD THE NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND ADJACENT EASTERN KANSAS IN THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE FRONT PRESSING THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. FURTHER SOUTH...A SECOND AREA THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO MOBERLY LINE WHERE SUNSHINE HAS ALLOWED THE AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IN THIS REGION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS. THE OVERALL SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF SEVERE WEATHER...AS WELL AS LIMIT THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM 2 TO 6 PM FOR AREAS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KANSAS CITY TO MOBERLY. $$ BOOKBINDER
FLUS43 KLSX 022052 HWOLSX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 352 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-031200- GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL- MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL- CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO- LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO- AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO- LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO- ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO- WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO- MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO- 352 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THIS EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH THIS EVENING. && FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1 $$ TILLY
FLUS43 KPAH 022050 HWOPAH HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 350 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-031000- JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN-GRAVES- LIVINGSTON-MARSHALL-CALLOWAY-CRITTENDEN-LYON-TRIGG-CALDWELL- UNION KY-WEBSTER-HOPKINS-CHRISTIAN-HENDERSON-DAVIESS-MCLEAN- MUHLENBERG-TODD-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER- RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- 350 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA...WESTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE QUAD STATE TONIGHT. THE STORMS WILL ENTER THE AREA AROUND 10 PM AND PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS EVENING. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AND WEAKEN AS THEY SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE QUAD STATE OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY. ANY STORMS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AREA WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. $$ DRS
FLUS43 KSGF 030402 HWOSGF HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO 1102 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-040415- BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON- ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS- LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON- LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE- TANEY-OZARK-OREGON- 1102 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER RISK LEVEL IS...SIGNIFICANT. WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED... THE LIGHTNING RISK IS SIGNIFICANT. THE FLOODING RISK IS ELEVATED. DISCUSSION... A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI THIS EVENING. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. ONGOING FLOODING WILL PERSIST IN SEVERAL AREAS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. ANYONE NAVIGATING ON ROADWAYS ACROSS THE OZARKS...SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY AWARE OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS THAT MAY BE FLOODED. NUMEROUS LOW LYING ROADS NEAR STREAMS AND RIVERS WILL ALSO REMAIN FLOODED...AND IMPASSABLE TO MOTORISTS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE) $$ CRAMER
FXUS63 KFSD 030042 AFDFSD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 742 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .DISCUSSION... ADJUSTED GRIDS EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE SSWRD PUSH TO ISOLD SHRA/TSRA INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT TREND IN HAVING THESE VANISH BY 03Z ALONG WITH DIURNAL CYCLE LOOKS GOOD. ADVY ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 00Z WITH WNDS ALREADY WORKING ON DECOUPLING IN SOME LOCATIONS...AND THIS AS WELL GRADUAL CLEARING WL BE FEATURE OF NEXT 1-2 HOURS ACRS THE AREA...WITH GRADIENT FAVORING MORE OF A STEADY NR 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WL PROBABLY TWEEK TRENDS SOMEWHAT...BUT OVERALL FCST LOOKS GOOD. /CHAPMAN && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO LAST THRU 00Z SAT. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N OF INTERSTATE 90 WL QUICKLY DIMINISH THRU 01Z-02Z...AND WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS WL EASE AS WELL. WNDS SHUD RECOUPLE BY MID MORNING FRI AND GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 KTS PSBL MAINLY ALG/E OF I29. SCT VFR CU EXPECTED BY 18Z. /CHAPMAN && .PREV DISCUSSION... SCT SHWRS CONT TO DEVELOP INTO NWRN PART OF FCST AREA AND THEY SHUD CONT TO DVLP AND SPREAD ESEWD FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN. THO STRONGEST AND MOST WDSPRD ACTVTY IS TO THE N...SCT SHWRS W/ 50 PCT POP FAR NERN FCST AREA ALONG WITH ISOLD TSTMS HON/FSD/SPW AND NORTHEAST LOOKS GOOD. THIS IS ALL TO 00Z WHICH IS THE START OF TNGT PERIOD. WILL DECREASE SHOWER MENTION TO THE ENE AFT 00Z AND CUT TSTMS FOR ERY THIS EVE. ISOLD SHWRS CUD LINGER A LTL PAST 03Z FAR NERN/ECNTRL FCST AREA AS UPPER WV PASSES BY...OTRW SKIES SHOULD BE GOING PRETTY CLEAR AFTER THAT TIME WITH DRIER AIR MOVNG IN AND HEATING TURNED OFF. WIND ADVY FOR WRN FORECAST AREA HAS BECOME VALID. WINDS ARE NOT QUITE THERE YET BUT SHOULD INCREASE SOME MORE THRU 4PM AS RUC SHOWS BL WINDS STILL INCREASING. WILL THEREFORE KEEP AS IS TO 7 PM. WINDS WILL DECREASE STEADILY ERY THIS EVE AND SETTLE DOWN TO AROUND 10 MPH FOR THE NIGHT A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNSET. GUIDANCE LOW TEMPS LOOK GENERALLY OK...COOL BUT NOT AS COOL AS IT COULD BE WITHOUT THE LINGERING SFC AND LOW LEVEL WINDS. / WILLIAMS THE WEEKEND CONTS TO LOOK PLEASANT AND DRY. SAT WL REMAIN COOL AND BREEZY WHILE SUNDAY WL SEE LESS WIND AND WARMER TEMPS CLOSER TO NORM. HIGH TEMPS ON SAT WILL BE A FEW DEG EITHER SIDE OF 70 MOST PLACES. COOLEST MORN WL BE SAT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE AREA. LOWS WL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S. WRMFNT WL LIFT N OF CWA LATE SUN NITE. CUD SEE AN ISOLD TRW ACRS N SUN NITE ON NOSE OF WAA...BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO WL LEAVE DRY. CDFNT WL PUSH EWD ACRS CWA MON INTO MON EVE. NOT SURE IF ANY STORMS WL GET GOING AS WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY COMPLETELY CAP CWA. SO FOR THAT REASON WL ONLY KEEP 20 TO 30% POPS IN FCST WITH BEST CHC ACRS ERN CWA MON AFTN AND EVE JUST AHEAD OF FNT. SHUD WARM UP NICELY AHEAD OF THIS FNT ON MON WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. PLENTY OF MIXING BEHIND FNT WL ALSO KEEP TEMPS CLOSE TO NORM AND ALSO BREEZY TO WINDY. TUES SHUD BE DRY AND PLEASANT ACRS CWA AS FNT STALLS STALLS ACRS NEB AND SRN IA. THIS FNT WL BEGIN TO LIFT N TUES NITE AND PERSIST ACRS CWA INTO THU. MAJOR TROF DIGGING ACRS WRN US WL BRING PLENTY OF LLM N INTO CWA WHICH CUD PRODUCE FAIRLY WDSPRD TRW N OF BNDRY WED NITE INTO THU. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...NONE. MN...NONE. IA...NONE. NE...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KOAX 022002 AFDOAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 302 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND COOLER/DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT IS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA...WITH GUSTY NWRLY WINDS BRINGING IN DRIER AIRMASS. AREAS OF LIGHT SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE CWA...BUT THINK MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN BY 00Z AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE PLAINS. DEWPOINTS AT 19Z WERE FALLING INTO THE 40S IN CNTRL NEB...AND EXPECT SIMILAR FALLING DEWPOINTS ACROSS NEB INTO WRN IA OVERNIGHT. TEMPS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FALL WELL INTO THE 50S...WITH GUSTS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS STILL HOVERING AROUND 10 KT. .LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EXPECT DRY OR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD EWD ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. HIGHS IN OUR AREA SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE LOWER AND MID 70S FRIDAY AFTN...THEN 75 TO 80 ON SATURDAY. MODELS HINT AT SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT PCPN NORTH OF WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE LIFTING NWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY... BUT FOR NOW WE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY. HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE 80S SUNDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WINDS. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT ON MONDAY IS PROBLEMATIC. BRISK SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS AND 850 MB TEMPS AHEAD OF FRONT SUGGEST HIGHS IN UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. 00Z GFS MOS LOOKS BETTER TODAY THAN IT DID YESTERDAY. THE ECMWF...GFS AND GEM ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE AREA NOW WILL MOVE EWD AS RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES BUILDS INTO SATURDAY. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT AND THEN PUSH OUT INTO THE PLAINS SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN OUR AREA TURNS FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A TROUGH DIGS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE 12Z GFS WAS A LITTLE STRONGER AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF IN REGARDS TO MOVING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH/WEAK CLOSED LOW INTO THE NRN PLAINS BY LATE MONDAY. WE GENERALLY REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MID WEEK AS A RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE SERN U.S. AND A TROUGH REMAINS TO OUR WEST. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES THAT FAR OUT...BUT THOSE ARE NOT CONSIDERED SIGNIFICANT FOR OUR AREA. IT LOOKS POTENTIALLY ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY MOVE UP INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. && .AVIATION... TAF SITES KOFK/KOMA/KLNK 18Z TAFS SKY CONDITIONS ARE IMPROVING ACROSS ALL TAF SITES...AND EXPECT CIGS TO LIFT/SCATTER THROUGH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. NWRLY WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KT OVERNIGHT...BUT EXPECT GUSTS TO RETURN BY LATE MORNING. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. IA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...MAYES LONG TERM....MILLER AVIATION...MAYES
FXUS63 KLBF 022013
AFDLBF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
240 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
AT 18Z...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN MONTANA. THE SURFACE FRONT HAD MADE ITS WAY THROUGH NEBRASKA
TO WESTERN IOWA AND EASTERN KANSAS. IN NEBRASKA...SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WERE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S WITH THE LOWEST VALUES IN THE
PANHANDLE. FARTHER OUT...THERE WAS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
GULF OF ALASKA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATED UPWARD MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR 43N/143W WITH
RIDGING PUSHING UP ALONG THE COAST OF WASHINGTON AND BRITISH
COLUMBIA.
&&
.SHORT RANGE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE FORECAST PROBLEM FOR TONIGHT IS THE TEMPERATURES WITH THE
CANADIAN HIGH AS IT SLIDES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN SOUTHEAST ALBERTA WERE IN THE 30S. WITH DRY AIR
AND DECREASING WIND...IT IS A PRETTY SAFE BET THAT THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WILL HAVE LOWS IN
THE 30S TONIGHT. STATISTICAL OUTPUT SHOWS LOWS IN NORTH PLATTE AND
OGALLALA 37-40. SINCE IT IS EARLY IN THE SEASON THOUGH...THE SOIL
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL PRETTY WARM. THAT SHOULD IMPEDE THE
TEMPERATURE DROP TONIGHT...SO ANY FROST THAT OCCURS IN THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY WILL BE SPOTTY AND NOT
WIDESPREAD. THEREFORE...WE ARE NOT PLANNING ANY ADVISORY FOR IT.
HOWEVER...WE WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HIGHLIGHTING THE
CONDITION AND INCLUDE IT IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE WARMER THAN TODAY AND LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE 40S.
.MEDIUM RANGE/EXTENDED...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND IN THE PANHANDLE WITH HIGHS 85 TO 90. IN CENTRAL AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ARE LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER. THEN...ANOTHER FRONT WILL
KNOCK A FEW DEGREES OFF TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME
MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE TEXAS GULF COAST AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WITH THE FRONT AND TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW FOCUSING THE PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE AREA...THE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION IN NEBRASKA WILL BE LOW. THERE MAY BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN NEBRASKA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO
AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT THE UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THAT
TIME RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...
NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW AT 20 TO 30 KTS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE CUMULUS FIELD IN THE WAKE OF THIS MORNING
COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL VFR CLOUDS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE SURFACE COOLS AROUND
SUNSET...THE SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR. COLD TEMPS TONIGHT MAY RESULT
IN LOCALIZED AREAS OF FROST BY EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ON GRASS
RUNWAYS IN FAVORED LOW LYING AREAS OF THE NEB PANHANDLE AND THE
PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. TOMORROW WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST...HOWEVER NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT/MEDIUM RANGE...SPRINGER
AVIATION...MASEK
FXUS65 KCYS 030353
AFDCYS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
953 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010
.UPDATE...METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES ON TRACK FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS AND
WINDS BASED ON TRENDS AND 00Z NAM MODEL AND GUIDANCE. FROST ADVISORY
ON TRACK. WILL NEED TO WATCH ALLIANCE CLOSELY AS THIS LOCATION
REALLY BOTTOMS OUT TEMPERATURE WISE IN THIS WEATHER SCENARIO.
SITUATION WELL HANDLED WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED
AT 301 PM TODAY. RUBIN
&&
.AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE. VFR AND NEARLY CLEAR SKIES WITH
THIN HIGH CLOUDS ABOVE 12000 FEET AGL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO EASTERN COLORADO FRIDAY MORNING
THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES FRIDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING. RUBIN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 709 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010/
AVIATION...00Z TAF ISSUANCE. VFR THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY SEPTEMBER
4TH. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH FEW IF ANY CLOUDS. RUBIN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA TONIGHT AND THEN ONTO
THE PLAINS FOR FRIDAY. THE FEATURE WILL BE REPLACED BY A SURFACE
LEE TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN WYOMING BORDER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE
ROCKIES WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CWA AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE DRY OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY AND AFTER A
COOL START FOR FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND AND WILL BE BACK
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE HOW COLD
THE LOWS WILL FALL TO TONIGHT. GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN ON THE
HIGH SIDE LATELY. WITH THE COLD AIR ADVECTION...LIGHT WINDS AND
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...MANY LOCATIONS WILL SEE AT
LEAST FROST IN LOW LYING AREAS. MODEL SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT 12Z. THE LOCATION OF THE FEATURE MAY BE
JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP LOWS FROM FALLING TOO FAR. LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL ALSO START THE RECOVERY IN
MANY PLACES LATE TONIGHT. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A FROST ADVISORY
FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES AS WELL AS
WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY FROM 09Z THROUGH 14Z. WILL ISSUE ANOTHER
STATEMENT TO MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF FROST IN LOW LYING AREAS
FOR THE REST OF THE CWA.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
SW FLOW WILL OCCUR ALOFT ON SUN AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM...AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE AT THIS TIME AS
RHS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE LOW. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE EVENING...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE WY PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE CWA
LATE SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON MORNING. SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON MON...BUT WILL END BY MON EVENING AS
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN ON TUES AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED ON WED AND THUR. A DISTURBANCE EJECTING OUT OF THE
MAIN LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON WED...WHICH WILL
AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL
THEN MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ON THUR...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THUR NIGHT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FROM 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
SUN...AROUND NORMAL MON AND TUES...AND 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED AND THUR.
AVIATION...00Z TAFS
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OVER THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY.
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS OVER THE EAST
PART OF THE CWA UNTIL SUNSET. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25
KNOTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON SATURDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SATURDAY OVER THE CWA TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY. ON THAT DAY...MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE BETWEEN 11 AND 16 PERCENT OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 30 MPH
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. SUNDAY WILL BE EVEN DRIER AND
WINDIER OVER THE CWA AND FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED BY
SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING FOR A RETURN TO COOLER WEATHER.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM FRIDAY TO 8 AM FRIDAY FOR WYZ104-WYZ105-
WYZ109-WYZ110-WYZ111-WYZ113-WYZ115-WYZ117.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEILAND
LONG TERM...KMD
FXUS63 KGLD 030430 AFDGLD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1030 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010 .DISCUSSION... 239 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010 1845 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING LONGWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS NORTHERN CONUS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS BOTH SW AND SE CONUS. CWA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON BACKSIDE OF TROUGH, WITH DRY AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO AREA. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE OVERNIGHT TEMPS, FOLLOWED BY RAPID WARMUP OVER THE WEEKEND. TONIGHT...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER AREA. A BIT CONCERNED THAT RUC WANTS TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER DEW PTS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S OVERNIGHT, BUT THE RUC ALSO IS NOT CAPTURING CURRENT DEWS IN THE LOW/MID 30S ACROSS NE COLO AND SW NEB WELL. BELIEVE THIS DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER DEW PTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S OVERNIGHT AND OVERALL WILL STAY THE COURSE WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW 40S NW ZONES TO THE MID/UPPER 40S SE ZONES. TOMORROW-MONDAY...GRADUAL WARMUP STARTS TOMORROW, WITH MORE RAPID WARMUP ENSUING OVER WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD AREA. HAVE TWEAKED HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES. QUESTIONS AS TO HOW WARM TO MAKE IT SUNDAY. RUN TO RUN MODEL COMPS SHOWS HIGHER THICKNESSES SUNDAY VERSUS PREVIOUS RUNS, MOS DEPICTS MID/UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA, AND LOCAL BIAS CORRECTIONS WOULD SUGGEST SOME AREAS APPROACHING IF NOT REACHING 100 DEGREES. WILL BUMP TEMPS TO THE MID/UPPER 90S IN MOST AREAS FOR NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE. FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MONDAY...TIMING DIFFERENCES WOULD HAVE AN EFFECT ON HIGHS, BUT CURRENT THINKING TO DROP TEMPS BY 5-10 DEGREES LOOKS GOOD. HAVE KEPT MONDAY DRY WITH SILENT POPS UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY WHEN BOTH EXT MODELS DEPICT A BIT OF QPF. IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ADVERTISING BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIGGING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER SE CONUS, WITH CWA UNDER SW FLOW ALOFT AND POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE PATTERN. THE GFS CLOSES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER CALIFORNIA WHEREAS THE EC KEEPS THE TROUGH OPEN, AND THUS THE GFS IS A BIT SLOWER IN ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. BIGGEST DIFF BTWN THE TWO MODELS IS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY, BUT HAVE BROADBRUSHED SLIGHT POPS BEGINNING TUE EVE THROUGH WED AS BOTH MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN PAINTING PRECIP DURING THIS PERIOD, WITH POSITION OF SFC FRONT IN QUESTION. 50 && .AVIATION... 1030 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010 FOR THE 06Z TAFS...VFR FOR KGLD AND KMCK. SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE SLIDING EAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS. LGT/VAR WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY AT KGLD BY 18Z AND KMCK AFTER 00Z. 07 && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...NONE. NE...NONE. CO...NONE. && $$
FXUS63 KGID 030529 AFDGID AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 1229 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010 .AVIATION...06Z TAF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD...LEAVING WINDS AS THE ONLY REAL ITEM OF INTEREST. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AROUND AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS. SPEEDS WILL PICK UP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS MIXING INCREASES...RESULTING IN GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THIS CORRIDOR OF STRONGER WINDS BEING MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE WILL SHIFT EAST OF KGRI AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING SPEEDS TO DROP TO BELOW 12 KTS. WINDS WILL THEN TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE EVENING AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS PASSES BY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE CWFA WITH SHARPLY LOWER DEWPOINTS /40S/ AND GUSTY WINDS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...BUT DROP OFF QUICKLY. MODELS SHOW A BIT OF GUSTINESS EARLY FRIDAY OVER AREAS EAST OF HIGHWAY 281...AND WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF THAT AREA WAS BREEZY /UP TO 25 MPH/ DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO LATER IN THE DAY AND WINDS WILL DROP OFF DURING THE DAY FROM WEST TO EAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REFLECT THE DRY AIR AND DIP INTO THE 40S AND 50S...AND HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE FOR MIDDLE 70S IN SOME AREAS FRIDAY. CERTAINLY BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS. THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A WARMING TREND AS SOUTHERLY WINDS START TO PICK UP. STRONG MID LEVEL CAP MOVES INTO THE CWFA BY SATURDAY EVENING...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE DRY FORECAST. THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES. OVERALL...ITS GOING TO BE A PRETTY NICE WEEKEND. LONG TERM...STARTING 12Z MONDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS CENTER UPON CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ALASKA...SOUTHWARD INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND BEFORE PUSHING INTO CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN RANGE MONDAY. BOTH THE EC AND OPERATIONAL GFS INDICATE A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL EJECT OUT FROM THE TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL SWING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG A 50KT JET STREAK...WHICH WILL IN TURN STRENGTHEN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS NOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY MONDAY...WITH THE SURFACE LOW THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ON INTO SOUTHERN CANADA OUT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE. WHILE THERE WERE DISAGREEMENTS YESTERDAY BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC REGARDING THE ASSOCIATED FROPA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW...BOTH MODELS NOW INDICATE THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...LIKELY CLEARING OUR ENTIRE CWA BY 06Z TUE. LONG TERM MODEL GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS THE SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN OR CENTRAL KANSAS TUESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED SECONDARY SHORT WAVE IS THEN EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE OF THE WESTERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH AND EJECT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND AS A RESULT...ANOTHER AREA OF SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO...THUS ALLOWING THE SURFACE FRONT OVER KANSAS TO SURGE NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BOTH THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND EC PRESENT PRECIPITATION TO PORTIONS OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY...FRONTAL TIMING APPEARS KEY TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION MONDAY AFTERNOON. NOW THAT THE EC AND OPERATIONAL GFS HAVE FALLEN IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER WILL GO AHEAD AND INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST FOR LOCATIONS CLOSEST TO THE BOUNDARY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE CWA INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...AND AN AXIS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT SETS UP IN THE 310-320K SURFACE RANGE PER THE EC. ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S C. THIS SHOULD YIELD MONDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S F. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED POST-FROPA ON TUESDAY...WITH REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...KB
FLUS43 KFSD 021622 HWOFSD HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 1120 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2010 SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098- IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-031200- AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA- CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE- DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON- IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN- LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN- OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN- SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON- 1120 AM CDT THU SEP 02 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA... SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON NORTHEAST OF A HURON TO SIOUX FALLS TO STORM LAKE IOWA LINE. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. WIND AND FOG... WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FROM CHAMBERLAIN AND GREGORY EAST INTO PARTS OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE THIS EVENING. FIRE DANGER... THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX WILL REACH HIGH TO VERY HIGH THIS AFTERNOON IN GREGORY COUNTY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. && FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SIOUXFALLS. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. $$
FLUS43 KOAX 022209 HWOOAX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE 509 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034- 042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>090-092-031215- MONONA-HARRISON-SHELBY-POTTAWATTAMIE-MILLS-MONTGOMERY-FREMONT- PAGE-KNOX-CEDAR-THURSTON-ANTELOPE-PIERCE-WAYNE-BOONE-MADISON- STANTON-CUMING-BURT-PLATTE-COLFAX-DODGE-WASHINGTON-BUTLER- SAUNDERS-DOUGLAS-SARPY-SEWARD-LANCASTER-CASS-OTOE-SALINE- JEFFERSON-GAGE-JOHNSON-PAWNEE- 509 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOST OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LABOR DAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THIS RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL STALL NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER AND THEN ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. $$ NEZ091-093-031215- NEMAHA-RICHARDSON- 509 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MINOR FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM AROUND BROWNVILLE DOWNSTREAM THROUGH RULO. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THIS RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE FRONT APPEARS IT WILL STALL NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER AND THEN ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MINOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER FROM BROWNVILLE DOWNSTREAM TO RULO INTO LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. $$ CHERMOK
FLUS43 KLBF 022034 HWOLBF HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 334 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-032045- SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN- GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON- LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER- WESTERN CHERRY- 334 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 /234 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED AREA OF PATCHY FROST OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER... HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE $$ MASEK
FLUS45 KCYS 022050 HWOCYS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 250 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010 NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>119-031015- DAWES-BOX BUTTE-SCOTTS BLUFF-BANNER-MORRILL-KIMBALL-CHEYENNE- NORTH SIOUX-SOUTH SIOUX-CONVERSE COUNTY LOWER ELEVATIONS- NIOBRARA COUNTY-NORTH LARAMIE RANGE- FERRIS/SEMINOE/SHIRLEY MOUNTAINS-SHIRLEY BASIN- CENTRAL LARAMIE RANGE AND SOUTHWEST PLATTE COUNTY- EAST PLATTE COUNTY-GOSHEN COUNTY-CENTRAL CARBON COUNTY- NORTH SNOWY RANGE FOOTHILLS-SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY- SIERRA MADRE RANGE-UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN-SNOWY RANGE- LARAMIE VALLEY-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE-SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE FOOTHILLS- CENTRAL LARAMIE COUNTY-EAST LARAMIE COUNTY- 250 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...EAST CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST WYOMING. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40 MPH. THE WINDS MAY PRODUCE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE PANHANDLE...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE WITH LIGHTWEIGHT OR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON WEST TO EAST ORIENTED HIGHWAYS. FROST WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES AS WELL AS WESTERN LARAMIE COUNTY. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THAT AREA BETWEEN 3 AM AND 8 AM. AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME OVER THE REST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM WESTERN WYOMING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING AND AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. && THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC...AND CLIMATE INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT... HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHEYENNE $$ WEILAND
FLUS43 KGLD 022230 HWOGLD HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 430 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-031200- YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON- SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA- DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW- 430 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010 /530 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$
FLUS43 KGID 021934 HWOGID HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 234 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 031200- PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 234 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA BEGINNING NEXT MONDAY...AND CONTINUE PERIODICALLY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS (ALL LOWERCASE) $$
FXUS64 KTSA 030440 AFDTSA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1140 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .AVIATION... CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR A KMLC-KFSM LINE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AT ALL AREA TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR KRVS AND KTUL. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRIEFLY REDUCE CONDITIONS INTO THE IFR AND MVFR RANGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ ..UPDATE... DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH ASSOCIATED BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM NW AR INTO EAST CENTRAL OK. SCATTERED STORMS ALSO CONTINUE FURTHER NORTH ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE AND THE LATEST NAM MAINTAINS THIS CONVECTION INTO NW ARKANSAS BEFORE DISSIPATING IT DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE UPDATED ZONE FORECAST WILL BE ISSUED ONCE THE CURRENT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH EXPIRES AT 10 PM. ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WOULD BE ISOLATED AND LIKELY BRIEF IN NATURE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK AND INTO WESTERN AR. UPDATED FORECAST WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP CHANCES THOUGH THE TREND OF DRYING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT REMAINS VALID. && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. AR...NONE. && $$ AVIATION...10
FXUS64 KOUN 030353 AFDOUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1053 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .AVIATION... RAIN/T-STORMS MAY LINGER IN THE KSPS AREA FOR THE 1ST COUPLE HRS... OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ERODING N TO S OVERNIGHT. LOW AND MID LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY FRIDAY THUS FEW CLOUDS IF ANY. WINDS DECREASING AND VEERING TO MORE E/SE FRIDAY EVENING WITH SFC RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE AREA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ UPDATE... STRONGEST STORMS ARE COMING DOWN AND WILL MOVE S OUT OF OUR TX ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO FIT CURRENT AND EXPECTED SHORT-TERM TRENDS. A FEW OF THE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER NE OK COULD BUILD BACK INTO PARTS OF NCENTRAL OK... OTHERWISE N AND W OK SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORMS. WW642 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP... WITH STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLEASANT WEATHER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. MODELS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA AND DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. WITH THE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 83 55 87 / 10 0 0 0 HOBART OK 58 84 56 87 / 10 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 63 87 58 90 / 100 10 0 0 GAGE OK 53 83 49 90 / 10 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 56 83 52 86 / 20 0 0 10 DURANT OK 65 86 58 88 / 60 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 23/24/24
FXUS64 KAMA 030454 AAD AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1154 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANDRADE && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ UPDATE... FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO REMOVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING...TAKING WITH IT THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH DEWPOINTS ALL READY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S. MINOR EDITS WERE MADE TO LOWER THE DEWPOINTS AND LOW TEMPS ESP ACROSS THE NORTHERN SPOTS. NO FURTHER UPDATES PLANNED ATTM. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ UPDATE... SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY AS FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED THE AREA. WILL LEAVE POPS ALONE ATTM BUT WILL MOST LIKELY TRIM/REMOVE THEM IN ANOTHER UPDATED LATER THIS EVENING. TAB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ AVIATION... SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TSTMS ARE WELL E AND S OF ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY MID EVENING...AND REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT REST OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. ANDRADE PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE. THEREFORE...HAVE TRIMED BACK TO POPS TO INCLUDE ONLY THE AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THERE IS A SEVERE THREAT FOR ANY AREAS SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...THUS THERE IS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY. THE CLEARING SKIES...DRY AIR ADVECTION...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE A GOOD SET UP FOR RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THUS UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A MUCH QUICKER WARM UP. THEREFORE...WENT NEAR OR ABOVE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT WEEK...THE GFS HAS TRENDED CLOSER TIO THE ECMWF...SHOWING THE PLUME OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...AS COMPARED TO THE FURTHER WEST SOLUTION IT SHOWED AT THE 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLY WEAK STATIONARY FRONT REMAINING GENERALLY OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITIONS OF BOTH FEATURES...HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SJOHNSON FIRE WEATHER... THE DRIER AIR THAT WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW 15 PERCENT TOMORROW. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH...BRINGING DRY AND WARM DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...ON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT AND WINDS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 15 MPH. CHANCES OF RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER WILL REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FMID WEEK. SJOHNSON && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$
FXUS64 KSHV 030205 CCA AFDSHV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 905 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .DISCUSSION... A FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION. CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS NEARLY DIMINISHED OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS EVENING...ONLY LEAVING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING CLEARLY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE NE AND INTO IO WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL MO AND INTO CENTRAL OK AND NORTHWEST TX. A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT AS SEEN ON AREA RADAR IMAGERY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DURING THE EARLY TO MID OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO REACH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWFA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO A SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE AIRMASS...IT WILL BE ALLOWED TO WEAKEN A BIT BEFORE ENTERING THE CWFA. HOWEVER...WILL NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY DIES DOWN. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TOO FAR INTO THE CWFA AS THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA. BUT OVERALL THE CURRENT POPS AND WX GRIDS REFLECT ALL OF THE CURRENT THINKING...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THESE. ANY RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE HWO FROM THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THAT AS WELL. THE PRIMARY CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING WERE TO TEMPERATURES. MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HAVE BEEN COOLING MORE QUICKLY THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. MOST LOCATIONS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO SEE THEIR FORECASTED LOWS. HOWEVER...HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS ACCORDINGLY AND BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS OVERALL IN DECENT SHAPE...WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE HERE OR THERE BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT AND POSTED TO THE WEB SHORTLY. /22/ && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS RETURNING AFTER 10Z. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY AS FROPA TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OBSERVED IN DEEP EAST TEXAS. /11/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 74 90 63 89 60 / 20 30 10 0 0 MLU 72 91 61 89 58 / 10 30 10 0 0 DEQ 69 88 54 88 52 / 60 30 0 0 0 TXK 70 88 58 86 57 / 30 30 10 0 0 ELD 70 89 57 86 54 / 20 30 10 0 0 TYR 72 88 61 88 60 / 40 20 10 0 0 GGG 73 90 60 88 58 / 30 20 10 0 0 LFK 75 91 64 91 59 / 20 30 20 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 22/11
FLUS44 KTSA 030245 HWOTSA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 945 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031000- ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK- CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK- LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK- OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK- PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK- WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR- 945 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. RISK...LIMITED. AREA...ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FAYETTEVILLE TO OKMULGEE. ONSET...ONGOING. FLASH FLOOD. RISK...LIMITED. AREA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. ONSET...ONGOING. SIGNIFICANT WINDS. RISK...LIMITED. AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ONSET...ONGOING. DISCUSSION... NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT... THOUGH THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING. ANY FURTHER SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL BE LIMITED WITH ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE FROM EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. MINOR URBAN FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PASS. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL. WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... MILD AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK RAISING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. $$
FLUS44 KOUN 030513
HWOOUN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1213 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010
OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1213 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WITH CHANCES DECREASING
WITH TIME. THE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATED AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY SEP 3.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...KEEPING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE WILL THEN RETURN...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT
5 AM FRIDAY. UNSCHEDULED UPDATES MAY ALSO BE ISSUED.
$$
FLUS44 KAMA 030346 AAB HWOAMA TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1045 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-031100- ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH- DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE- OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER- 1045 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. .DAY ONE... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ ANDRADE ANDRADE
FLUS44 KSHV 021721 HWOSHV HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1221 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072-LAZ001>003-010-017-OKZ077-TXZ096-097- 108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-031730- SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE- COLUMBIA-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-DE SOTO-SABINE LA-MCCURTAIN- RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR- MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES- SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX- 1221 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND FOR DEEP EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS OVER THE AREA. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...THEN DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL STRONGER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL BE AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING ACROSS OKLAHOMA. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER OKLAHOMA...AS THE THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT STILL GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... ISOLATED...TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS FRIDAY...AS THE COOL FRONT PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKY WARN NETWORKS...AND HAM RADIO OPERATORS...SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT. $$ ARZ073-LAZ004>006-011>014-018>022-031730- UNION AR-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-UNION LA-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON- OUACHITA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE- 1221 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM EL DORADO TO NATCHITOCHES AND POINTS EAST...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS FRIDAY...AS A COOL FRONT PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$ 24
FXUS64 KFWD 030422 AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1122 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .AVIATION... HAVE REMOVED TSRA FROM METROPLEX TAFS...AT MOST AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL KEEP VFR THROUGH PERIOD. ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE NAM WANTS TO DEVELOP SOME STORMS NEAR WACO LATE MORNING...SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THAT OVERNIGHT. && .UPDATE... SQUALL LINE REALLY FELL APART QUICKLY AS IT REACHED THE CWA. WILL LOWER POPS A BIT AND TONE DOWN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN OTHER PRODUCTS. OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING SOME SCATTERED UNORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REMAINING IN PLACE. TR.92 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ MCV FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ROTATE JUST WEST OF TARRANT COUNTY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES IN AN AREA OF HIGHER INSTABILITY. NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES...THE AIRMASS IS WORKED OVER BY THE MORNING CONVECTION AND TEMPERATURES ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 80S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLEAR IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH THE CLEARING LINE LOCATED FROM COMANCHE TO MINERAL WELLS TO GAINESVILLE. TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA HAVE CLIMBED UP NICELY INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES /SMALL AREAS WITH DIFFERENT STABILITIES AND THE MCV/ WILL ALL PLAY IMPORTANT ROLES WITH HOW EVERYTHING WILL PLAY OUT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. AT 20Z...THE FRONT WAS LOCATED IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND IS QUICKLY PUSHING SOUTH AS NORTH WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GUST IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS IN OKLAHOMA AS INHIBITION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. WITH HIGH CAPES AND 500 MB FLOW AROUND 20 KNOTS...STRONG UPDRAFTS SHOULD QUICKLY DEVELOP AFTER INITIATION. STORMS WILL INITIALLY HAVE A WIND THREAT BUT THEN MAY BE UNDERCUT BY THE FRONT AS IT QUICKLY MOVES SOUTH. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH THIS EVENING THE STORM MODE WILL MOST LIKELY BE MULTI-CELLULAR. TIMING OF THE FRONT/STORMS BRINGS IT TO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...INTO THE METROPLEX AROUND 3AM AND THEN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ZONES AFTER DAYBREAK. GIVEN OUR CURRENT ENVIRONMENT...AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE CURRENT CLEARING LINE WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. EXPECTING ANY ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE METROPLEX AND FURTHER SOUTH AS IT RUNS INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES POST FRONTAL TOMORROW MORNING. THE THETA-E BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL LAG BEHIND THE WIND SHIFT AT 925 AND 850 MB AFTER PUSHING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE NAM PICKS UP ON THIS AND SHOWS WIDESPREAD QPF THROUGH 21Z IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WILL GO WITH A 40/30 POP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. COOL/DRY AIR WILL FILTER IN SLOWLY BEHIND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT. SOME AREAS TODAY HAVE GOTTEN AN EARLY PREVIEW OF THE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 80S TO LOWER 90S AND WITH THE DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE LOWS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE 50S FOR MANY OUTLYING AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE AND RETURN TO THE MIDDLE 90S BY MONDAY. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY FROM THE SOUTH AS IT ROTATES AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS. WILL LEAVE THE 20/30 POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY- WEDNESDAY. 85/NH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 69 89 63 90 65 / 50 10 5 5 0 WACO, TX 72 88 62 89 61 / 40 30 5 5 0 PARIS, TX 69 86 58 85 58 / 50 10 5 5 5 DENTON, TX 69 88 58 90 59 / 60 10 5 5 0 MCKINNEY, TX 67 87 55 87 55 / 40 10 5 5 0 DALLAS, TX 71 87 64 90 66 / 40 10 5 5 0 TERRELL, TX 69 88 60 88 60 / 40 20 5 5 0 CORSICANA, TX 73 89 62 89 62 / 40 20 5 5 0 TEMPLE, TX 73 90 63 90 61 / 40 40 5 5 5 MINERAL WELLS, TX 67 88 56 89 60 / 70 10 5 5 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ /
FXUS64 KSHV 030205 CCA AFDSHV AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR AVIATION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 905 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .DISCUSSION... A FEW MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOUR STATE REGION. CONVECTION FROM THIS AFTERNOON HAS NEARLY DIMINISHED OVER THE FOUR STATE REGION THIS EVENING...ONLY LEAVING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING CLEARLY SHOWS THE SHORTWAVE PASSING ACROSS THE NE AND INTO IO WITH A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL MO AND INTO CENTRAL OK AND NORTHWEST TX. A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT AS SEEN ON AREA RADAR IMAGERY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA DURING THE EARLY TO MID OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL ALLOW CONVECTION TO REACH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CWFA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...AS THIS CONVECTION MOVES INTO A SLIGHTLY LESS FAVORABLE AIRMASS...IT WILL BE ALLOWED TO WEAKEN A BIT BEFORE ENTERING THE CWFA. HOWEVER...WILL NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEEING A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WITH WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN BEFORE THIS ACTIVITY DIES DOWN. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD NOT MAKE IT TOO FAR INTO THE CWFA AS THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA. BUT OVERALL THE CURRENT POPS AND WX GRIDS REFLECT ALL OF THE CURRENT THINKING...SO NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THESE. ANY RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS ALSO MENTIONED IN THE HWO FROM THIS AFTERNOON...SO NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THAT AS WELL. THE PRIMARY CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS EVENING WERE TO TEMPERATURES. MANY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HAVE BEEN COOLING MORE QUICKLY THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED. MOST LOCATIONS ARE STILL ON TRACK TO SEE THEIR FORECASTED LOWS. HOWEVER...HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES IN A FEW LOCATIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS ACCORDINGLY AND BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS OVERALL IN DECENT SHAPE...WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE HERE OR THERE BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT AND POSTED TO THE WEB SHORTLY. /22/ && .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH SOME MVFR CIGS RETURNING AFTER 10Z. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY AS FROPA TAKES PLACE THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY. SOME SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OBSERVED IN DEEP EAST TEXAS. /11/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 74 90 63 89 60 / 20 30 10 0 0 MLU 72 91 61 89 58 / 10 30 10 0 0 DEQ 69 88 54 88 52 / 60 30 0 0 0 TXK 70 88 58 86 57 / 30 30 10 0 0 ELD 70 89 57 86 54 / 20 30 10 0 0 TYR 72 88 61 88 60 / 40 20 10 0 0 GGG 73 90 60 88 58 / 30 20 10 0 0 LFK 75 91 64 91 59 / 20 30 20 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...NONE. LA...NONE. OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 22/11
FXUS64 KOUN 030353 AFDOUN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK 1053 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .AVIATION... RAIN/T-STORMS MAY LINGER IN THE KSPS AREA FOR THE 1ST COUPLE HRS... OTHERWISE MID/HIGH CLOUDS ERODING N TO S OVERNIGHT. LOW AND MID LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY FRIDAY THUS FEW CLOUDS IF ANY. WINDS DECREASING AND VEERING TO MORE E/SE FRIDAY EVENING WITH SFC RIDGE SETTLING OVER THE AREA. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ UPDATE... STRONGEST STORMS ARE COMING DOWN AND WILL MOVE S OUT OF OUR TX ZONES BY MIDNIGHT. GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO FIT CURRENT AND EXPECTED SHORT-TERM TRENDS. A FEW OF THE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS OVER NE OK COULD BUILD BACK INTO PARTS OF NCENTRAL OK... OTHERWISE N AND W OK SHOULD REMAIN DRY BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORMS. WW642 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ DISCUSSION... COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP... WITH STRONG STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS AND HAIL THE MAIN CONCERN. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO PLEASANT WEATHER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. MODELS SHOW SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING QUICKLY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LEADING TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA AND DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. WITH THE ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 83 55 87 / 10 0 0 0 HOBART OK 58 84 56 87 / 10 0 0 0 WICHITA FALLS TX 63 87 58 90 / 100 10 0 0 GAGE OK 53 83 49 90 / 10 0 0 0 PONCA CITY OK 56 83 52 86 / 20 0 0 10 DURANT OK 65 86 58 88 / 60 10 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ 23/24/24
FXUS64 KEWX 030504 AFDEWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 1204 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST THROUGH 11Z ACROSS ALL LOCAL SITES THEN MVFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COMES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. I -35 TERMINALS TO BE AFFECTED WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH CIGS OF 1000 TO 2000 FEET AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE I 35 LOCAL SITES FROM 19Z TO 23Z. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER... ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF WILL STREAM NORTHWARD AND INTERACT THE A COOLER AIR MASS AND INITIATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MOST SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ UPDATE... ADDED POPS TO THE SWRN COUNTIES AS WELL AS INCREASING POPS OVER THE SERN CWA AS CONVECTION WILL SHIFT IN THOSE DIRECTIONS WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND TOWARD AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE STILL IN THE LOWER 90S. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ AVIATION... SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ALONG I-35 TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE SAN MARCOS...NEW BRAUNFELS AND SAN ANTONIO AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATES...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ALONG THE I 35 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS DRT. ABOUT 09Z TO 12Z...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO GO DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS WHILE COMING BACK UP THE FOLLOWING HOUR. FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO COME ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY AND ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR FROM 19Z TO 23Z. THEREFORE...ADDED TEMPO GROUPS FOR ALL SITES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ DISCUSSION... THIS AFTERNOON A RAIN-COOLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT ORIGINATED FROM THE NORTH TEXAS MCS...WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND OUR NORTHEAST COUNTIES. THIS BOUNDARY WAS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE FORMING OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SEA BREEZE. WE EXPECTED THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEING SUSTAINED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MERGERS. THE STRONGER STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH. THE CONVECTION WILL WANE OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA WILL BE ENTERING THE HILL COUNTRY FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES. THUS THIS FCST WILL CLOSELY FOLLOW THE GFS MOS OUTPUT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPS WILL BE COOLER IN MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXPECTED PCPN. HIGHS OF FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO MID 90S ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY TO LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE 90S IN THE AFTERNOON FOR A MAJORITY OF THE REGION. ANOTHER PLEASANT NIGHT WILL FOLLOW WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING THE LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO RETURN TO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. RAIN CHANCES ALSO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATE CLOCKWISE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND TRAVERSE SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 75 92 68 92 67 / 20 50 10 - - AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 90 66 91 64 / 20 50 10 - - NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 93 69 92 67 / 20 50 20 - - BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 88 64 90 66 / 40 40 10 - - DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 93 70 90 71 / 20 40 30 - - GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 90 64 90 66 / 40 50 10 - - HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 74 91 68 92 68 / 40 50 20 - - SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 91 68 91 67 / 20 50 20 - - LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 91 70 91 66 / 20 50 20 - - SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 74 91 70 92 69 / 20 50 20 - - STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 93 70 93 69 / 40 50 20 - - && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 01/17
FXUS64 KCRP 030430 AAC AFDCRP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 1130 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 06Z TAFS. && .AVIATION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THIS COMPLEX WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD HELP KEEP FOG FROM FORMING...SO REMOVED MVFR VIS DUE TO FOG FROM THE TAFS. A COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WILL SLOWLY SLIDE DOWN INTO THE HILL COUNTRY ON FRIDAY AND HELP SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY INLAND. WITH THE FRONT SLIDING CLOSER TO THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING...SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CWA. SO LEFT VCSH WITH CB/S IN THE FORECAST FOR KALI AND KLRD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 78 92 76 92 73 / 20 30 20 30 10 VICTORIA 76 93 72 93 69 / 20 40 20 20 10 LAREDO 80 98 74 96 76 / 10 30 40 30 10 ALICE 75 94 74 95 72 / 10 30 30 30 10 ROCKPORT 83 90 78 92 76 / 20 30 20 20 10 COTULLA 75 94 72 95 71 / 40 40 30 10 10 KINGSVILLE 77 93 75 94 73 / 10 30 20 30 10 NAVY CORPUS 83 89 78 90 78 / 20 30 20 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ AK/84...AVIATION
FXUS64 KHGX 030446 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1146 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .AVIATION... THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE MID MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT HAS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF AND A WEAKENING UPPER LOW OVER NORTH TEXAS. THE WEAK RIDGE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL HELP PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE COASTAL AREAS FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING AFTERNOON. ALSO...A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH AND HELPS SWING THE WINDS GENERALLY AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST FOR FRIDAY. THESE TWO FEATURES MAY LIKELY HELP END THE RAIN THREAT BY THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD FROM THE NORTHEAST. THINK THAT ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN OVER THE FAR NORTH BEFORE SUNRISE AND MOST OTHER SITES AROUND SUNRISE. KSGR AND KLBX MAY NOT SEE SHOWERS UNTIL MID MORNING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT ONE OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATED BEST CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN MID MORNING AND MID AFTERNOON. DECIDED TO GO WITH A VICINITY FORECAST FOR NOW. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS. 40 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ UPDATE... EVENING UPDATE BELOW. DISCUSSION... CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE DOWNWARD AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING...TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS...3 TO 4 INCHES...FELL IN A FEW SPOTS FROM HARRIS COUNTY TO AUSTIN COUNTY TO COLORADO COUNTY. A WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND ON FRIDAY. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHTLY LOWER PW VALUES AT CRP AND A SLIGHT INCREASE AT LCH. PW VALUES ARE RIGHT AROUND 2.00 INCHES. THE FRONT WILL HAVE DECENT DYNAMICS TO WORK WITH ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE 18Z GFS IS MORE ROBUST WITH RAINFALL MATCHING UP A BIT BETTER WITH THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z NAM. UPPER LEVELS WINDS ARE DIVERGENT AND SE TX WILL LIE IN A WEAK RRQ. THINK RAIN CHANCES MIGHT NEED TO BE BUMPED UPWARD. AS FOR TONIGHT...WILL TWEAK SKY GRIDS BUT OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAS THINGS COVERED WELL. 43 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 75 91 67 90 65 / 30 30 20 10 10 HOUSTON (IAH) 76 92 71 92 66 / 20 50 20 10 10 GALVESTON (GLS) 81 90 77 89 75 / 20 40 20 10 10 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ DISCUSSION...38 AVIATION/MARINE...40
FXUS64 KAMA 030454 AAD AFDAMA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1154 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ANDRADE && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ UPDATE... FORECAST WAS RECENTLY UPDATED TO REMOVE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES THIS EVENING...TAKING WITH IT THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. DRY AIR IS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH DEWPOINTS ALL READY FALLING INTO THE LOWER 40S. MINOR EDITS WERE MADE TO LOWER THE DEWPOINTS AND LOW TEMPS ESP ACROSS THE NORTHERN SPOTS. NO FURTHER UPDATES PLANNED ATTM. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ UPDATE... SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FROM COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY AS FRONT HAS JUST ABOUT EXITED THE AREA. WILL LEAVE POPS ALONE ATTM BUT WILL MOST LIKELY TRIM/REMOVE THEM IN ANOTHER UPDATED LATER THIS EVENING. TAB PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ AVIATION... SFC COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TSTMS ARE WELL E AND S OF ALL TAF SITES. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BY MID EVENING...AND REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT REST OF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. ANDRADE PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ DISCUSSION... THE COLD FRONT IS THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE. THEREFORE...HAVE TRIMED BACK TO POPS TO INCLUDE ONLY THE AREAS SOUTH OF THE FRONT. THERE IS A SEVERE THREAT FOR ANY AREAS SOUTH OF THIS FRONT...THUS THERE IS A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR COLLINGSWORTH COUNTY. THE CLEARING SKIES...DRY AIR ADVECTION...AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE A GOOD SET UP FOR RAPIDLY DROPPING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. THUS UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND NAM SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE ROCKIES FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. AS A RESULT...EXPECT A MUCH QUICKER WARM UP. THEREFORE...WENT NEAR OR ABOVE GUIDANCE THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT WEEK...THE GFS HAS TRENDED CLOSER TIO THE ECMWF...SHOWING THE PLUME OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE EASTERN PANHANDLES...AS COMPARED TO THE FURTHER WEST SOLUTION IT SHOWED AT THE 00Z RUN. HOWEVER...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SURFACE TROUGH AND POSSIBLY WEAK STATIONARY FRONT REMAINING GENERALLY OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES. CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITIONS OF BOTH FEATURES...HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. SJOHNSON FIRE WEATHER... THE DRIER AIR THAT WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR OR BELOW 15 PERCENT TOMORROW. HOWEVER...LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MINIMAL. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH...BRINGING DRY AND WARM DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS A RESULT...ON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT AND WINDS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 15 MPH. CHANCES OF RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER WILL REDUCE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FMID WEEK. SJOHNSON && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. OK...NONE. && $$
FXUS64 KLUB 030455 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1155 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .AVIATION... CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS PUSHED SOUTH OF BOTH TERMINALS AND NO FURTHER STORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ALL NIGHT AND SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH A FINE DAY IN STORE. THERE IS SOME RISK OF A LOW VFR DECK OF CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THIS IS EVIDENT NE OF KLBB ON 11-3.9 UM IMAGERY. AT THIS POINT...SUSPECT THE CIGS WILL NOT DROP TO MVFR... BUT...ALAS...WITH THE RAINFALL THIS EVENING...IT IS POSSIBLE. 26 && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ SHORT TERM... THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS VALID...AND THE CURRENTLY PLEASANT WEATHER ON THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY DURING THE NEXT 1-4 HOURS. CUMULUS FIELDS/INCIPIENT THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND IN VICINITY OF THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT/FRONT NEAR PALO DURO/TULE CANYONS. OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN ARE THE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH/DRYLINE ATOP A DEEPLY MIXED PBL AND 40-50 DEGREE TEMP/TD SPREADS. STRONG PULSE-TYPE UPDRAFTS IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL CERTAINLY POSE A RISK OF DOWNBURSTS/LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS. OTHERWISE...ALL SOLUTIONS AGREE THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STORMS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS DISCUSSED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD STRONG COLD POOLS CONGEAL GIVEN THE DEEPLY MIXED AND HIGHLY UNSTABLE PRE-STORM ENVIRONMENT. IN THE AMBIENT POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...3-4MB/3HR PRESSURE RISES HAVE PERSISTED THROUGH THE DAY...DESPITE CURRENT DIURNAL PRESSURE MINIMUM. AS SUCH...OBSERVED WIND SPEEDS WITHIN A NARROW ZONE OF TIGHT MSLP GRADIENTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT NOW RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 KT. RUC AND NAM PROGGED GRADIENT/SURFACE WINDS AOA 30KT AND 850MB WINDS 40-50KT CONTINUE TO ARGUE FOR AT LEAST TRANSIENT/BRIEF ADVISORY LEVEL WIND SPEEDS /25-35 MPH RANGE/ OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. BY SUNRISE...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PROGRESSED WELL SOUTH TOWARD THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR...AND LINGERING SHOWERS/CONVECTION WILL BE ENDING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES. LONG TERM... LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST THIS WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. THE NEXT ITEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A TROUGH DIVING DOWN INTO THE SOUTHWEST US FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE DRAWING MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WITH LIFT ALSO SPREADING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...THERE COULD BE SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF CONVECTION AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE MODELS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN ENSEMBLE FORECASTS. JDV && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 94 53 79 51 85 / 30 20 0 0 0 TULIA 96 57 78 50 83 / 40 20 0 0 0 PLAINVIEW 97 58 77 52 84 / 30 20 0 0 0 LEVELLAND 97 59 78 52 86 / 30 30 10 0 0 LUBBOCK 99 60 79 55 85 / 30 30 10 0 0 DENVER CITY 97 60 80 55 86 / 30 50 10 0 0 BROWNFIELD 95 61 80 55 87 / 20 40 10 0 0 CHILDRESS 99 60 83 55 86 / 30 30 0 0 0 SPUR 96 63 80 57 87 / 20 40 10 0 0 ASPERMONT 101 65 83 60 87 / 10 60 10 0 0 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 99/99/26
FXUS64 KSJT 030538 AAB AFDSJT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1238 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010 .UPDATE... SEE AVIATION SECTION. && .AVIATION... A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PROGRSSING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. LEADING EDGE TO REACH THE KSJT TERMINAL BY 0630Z...AND KBBD BY 07Z. THE LEADING EDGE WILL BE MARKED BY GUSTY NORTH WINDS. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE HEAVY RAIN WHICH ACCOMPANIES THE THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD AND SHOULD REACH THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR BEFORE 10Z. A POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUD FIELD WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WITH MVFR CEILINGS. CLOUD CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB INTO THE VFR CATEGORY BY LATE MORNING. CLOUD COVERAGE WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA. NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ UPDATE... SEE AVIATION SECTION. AVIATION... WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH LATE EVENING. INCLUDING CB CLOUD GROUPS IN THE AREA TAFS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW THAT THE STORMS WILL DIRECTLY AFFECT ANY OF TERMINALS. COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE SOUTH INTO THE BIG COUNTRY BY MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH INTERSTATE 10 BY 10Z FRIDAY. A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHICH ACCOMPANIES THE STORMS...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND A POST-FRONTAL LOW CLOUD FIELD WILL ADVANCE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW CLOUD FIELD WILL LIKELY HAVE MVFR CEILINGS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...CLOUD COVERAGE WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...AS DRIER AIR FILTERS DOWN INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ SHORT TERM... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SAN ANGELO TO JUNCTION...FROM EARLIER CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN CENTRAL TEXAS. DUE TO THEIR SLOW MOVEMENT...THE MAIN THREATS FROM EARLY STORMS ARE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. THE STORMS ARE DIURNAL AND SHOULD DISSIPATE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MAIN WEATHER THREAT STILL TO COME TONIGHT. STRONG COLD FRONT 50 MILES SOUTH OF AMARILLO WILL MOVE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT. NAM BRINGS FRONT JUST NORTH OF A FISHER AND HASKELL COUNTIES AROUND 10 PM...ALONG I-20 AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN ALONG A SAN ANGELO TO BROWNWOOD LINE 4 AM. THERE IS LOT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. DAY 1 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK INDICATES A SLIGHT RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS FISHER... HASKELL...AND THROCKMORTON COUNTIES...WITH THREAT TRANSITIONING TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MAINLY ALONG THE FRONT AND POST FRONTAL. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CONCHO VALLEY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. LONG TERM... BY FRIDAY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WILL ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL. LOOKING FOR AN UNSEASONABLY COOL START TO THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA...AND AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMING GENERALLY TO THE UPPER 80S. THE 500MB HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING DRY AND UNDER A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE LATE SUNDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...DISPLACING THE UPPER HIGH TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY TUESDAY. GIVEN THE RESULTING MOISTURE FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH INTO PRIMARILY THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS...WE WILL SEE THE CHANCE OF RAINFALL RETURNING TO THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF AS THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BUILDS FURTHER WEST ALONG THE GULF COASTAL STATES TOWARD TEXAS. AS EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS DRY OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED...THE MONSOON RAINS WILL RETURN TO EXTREME WEST TEXAS AND THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ABILENE 56 87 64 93 68 / 0 10 10 10 10 SAN ANGELO 57 88 64 92 67 / 10 10 10 10 10 JUNCTION 59 90 63 93 69 / 10 10 10 10 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$
FXUS64 KMAF 030547
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1247 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH MAF AND INK TAF ISSUANCE AND WILL BE
THROUGH PEQ AND FST BY 08Z. WINDS WILL GUST OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
TO NEAR 30KTS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT THEN SETTLE TO A 15 TO
25KT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED SO CONFIDENCE IN PLACE AND TIMING IS FAIRLY LOW. ONLY
WENT WITH TEMPO AT MAF AND INK AND WILL ADD TO ANY OTHER TAF SITES
IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES. THERE IS A THREAT FOR BRIEF MVFR CIGS
FROM 09-15Z BUT DID NOT HAVE CONFIDENCE TO PUT IN FM GROUP. SKIES
WILL SCATTER LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS
SUBSIDING AND VEERING TO A MORE EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
HENNIG
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL NOON MDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
99
FXUS64 KEPZ 022119 AFDEPZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 315 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE BORDERLAND WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONT ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL COOL DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL. BY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STREAM TROPICAL MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT MOSTLY EAST OF DEMING. && .DISCUSSION... UPPER HIGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY WITH GENERALLY FEW CLOUDS OR RAIN. A COLD FRONT NOW INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL PUSH WEST ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE SAC MOUNTAINS MID EVENING AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER...AND THEN TO THE ARIZONA BORDER BY AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT IS RELATIVELY STABLE AND DRY AT LOW LEVELS. FAIR AMOUNT OF CU...MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON BUT THAT SHOULD BE ABOUT IT. AS FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS REGIME...DEW POINTS WILL INCREASE AND FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE SOME LIFT...SO EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL ABOUT 10-13 DEGREES ON FRIDAY...SO DESPITE GOOD COLD ADVECTION AND DESTABILIZATION ALOFT...LOW LEVEL STABILIZATION SHOULD INHIBIT MOST CONVECTION ON FRIDAY. WEEKEND SHOULD REMAIN QUIET WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. GFS ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING MONDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY BRING SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ECMWF SWEEPS THE MOISTURE PLUME THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST AS A BIT BETTER DEFINED UPPER SYSTEM DRIVES IT EASTWARD. GFS IS LESS DEFINED WITH UPPER ENERGY AND HENCE MOISTURE WILL STREAM UP PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW. THIS MEANS A BIT LONGER DURATION WITH THE GFS...BUT WITH BEST...OR ANY...CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY EAST OF DEMING. && .AVIATION...VALID 03/00Z-04/00Z... A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH REGION OVERNIGHT REACHING KTCS AROUND 06Z AND REMAINING TERMINALS AROUND 08Z-09Z. E TO NE WINDS OF 15G25KTS CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT THROUGH 15Z-18Z BEFORE SLOWLY TAPERING OFF. ISOLD TS WITH ISOLD MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE AFT 09Z...MAINLY OVER FAR SOUTHERN NM AND FAR W TX. && .FIRE WEATHER... COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT SHIFTING WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS COULD ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN REDEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY BUT MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 30-40 PERCENT RANGE. A 3-5 DEGREE WARMUP EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS. A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL HELP TO BRING A SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE TO THE AREA FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL HELP TO COOL TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 80S WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... EL PASO 69 87 65 89 67 / 20 10 10 10 10 SIERRA BLANCA TX 61 84 58 89 59 / 30 10 10 10 10 LAS CRUCES 66 86 62 89 64 / 20 10 10 10 10 ALAMOGORDO 62 85 58 88 60 / 20 10 10 10 10 CLOUDCROFT 46 63 39 68 43 / 30 10 10 10 10 TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 63 84 60 86 61 / 20 10 10 10 10 SILVER CITY 58 78 54 80 55 / 20 10 10 10 10 DEMING 64 87 60 89 62 / 20 10 10 10 10 LORDSBURG 64 87 60 89 62 / 20 10 10 10 10 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && $$ HEFNER/GRZYWACZ
FXUS64 KLCH 030453 AFDLCH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 1153 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .DISCUSSION... FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE GFS GLOBAL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THE NAM REGIONAL GUIDANCE IN DEPICTING A MODEST ADVECTIVE MOISTENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. WITH THE OVERNIGHT BECALMING OF THE WINDS...LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. BRIEF IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN. IN THE SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH CHICAGO THROUGH ST. LOUIS THROUGH LUBBOCK TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST REACHING SHREVEPORT BY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY... BEFORE REACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY EARLY EVENING FRIDAY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SET OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ UPDATE...RADAR NOW SHOWING FCST AREA DOWN TO JUST A FEW PINPOINT SHOWERS OVER VERNON PARISH. MAIN RAINS FOCUSED ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LATEST NAM SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THAT AREA. OTHERWISE GRIDS/ZONES REMAIN THE SAME. MARCOTTE PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ AVIATION... NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EMANATING AWAY FROM THEIR PARENT THUNDERSTORMS SUGGEST THAT MOST CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE COMING TO AN END WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR THIS EVENING...THE NAM REGIONAL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MODEST ADVECTIVE MOISTENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA. WITH THE LATE EVENING RELAXING OF THE WINDS...LOW CLOUDS MAY FORM...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. BRIEF IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR DAWN. IN THE SHORT TERM...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH CHICAGO THROUGH ST. LOUIS THROUGH LUBBOCK TEXAS THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH AND EAST REACHING SHREVEPORT BY EARLY MORNING FRIDAY... BEFORE REACHING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY EARLY EVENING FRIDAY. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SET OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TRARES PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010/ DISCUSSION... RADAR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FORT POLK TO MORGAN CITY. DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH OF THIS LINE WHERE SURFACE OBS SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S HAS KEPT CONVECTION AT BAY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS...WITH SURFACE OBS INDICATING A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER STRETCHING FROM SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY TO NORTH OF LUBBOCK. MODELS INDICATE THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BARREL SOUTHWARD AND REACH OUR CWA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...GFS INDICATES MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND WILL INDICATE A BIT HIGHER COVERAGE OF POPS IN NORTHERN ZONES. FRONT TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS BEFORE STALLING...WITH MODELS DEPICTING A VERY DRY AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S FILTERING ACROSS THE AREA. GFS INDICATES PWATS WILL FALL TO NEAR 1 INCH OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AND EVEN BELOW 0.5 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES BY SATURDAY...WITH MOS GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR ALL LOCATIONS BY SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE ONCE AGAIN NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD OVER THE WEEKEND BUT STILL REMAIN ABOVE GUIDANCE. REGARDLESS...THESE WILL BE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES SEEN IN THE CWA SINCE MAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT A RAPID AIRMASS CHANGE AS A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5 INCHES MOVES OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...WITH PWATS RISING TO WELL ABOVE 2 INCHES FOR ALL ZONES BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THUS HAVE SHOWN A RETURN TO CLIMO TEMPS AND POPS BEGINNING ON LABOR DAY. WITH A STRONG DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS AS WELL...PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL PROVIDE FOR TYPICAL NOCTURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER INLAND AREAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MARINE... LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK...A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PUSH BACK INTO THE REGION...BRINGING A RETURN OF ONSHORE FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... KLCH 75 93 70 91 66 / 20 20 20 10 10 KBPT 76 93 71 91 66 / 20 20 20 10 10 KAEX 72 94 65 90 60 / 10 20 10 0 0 KLFT 74 93 70 91 66 / 20 20 20 10 10 && .LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...NONE. TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$
FXUS64 KBRO 030202 AFDBRO AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 830 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 7 AM SATURDAY/...A COUPLE OF MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE UPDATE THIS EVENING. REMOVED MENTION OF PCPN FOR MOST INLAND LOCALES AS SEA BREEZE TYPE SHOWERS FROM EARLIER TODAY HAVE DIMINISHED. WILL BE LEFT WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY OVRNGT INTO FRI MRNG. MID LVL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH MID LVL LOW APPROACHING THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WEAKNESS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE IN CENTRAL TX MOVG SWD WITH ASSOC CONV ACROSS HILL COUNTRY THIS EVE DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONV IN NORTHERN TX. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SWD THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HRS GETTING CLOSE TO IF NOT ENTERING THE NORTHERN FA LATE IN THE PERIOD OR BEGINNING OF LONG TERM PERIOD. SHOWERS AND TSTMS INCREASE THRU THE DAYTIME FRI ACROSS THE CWA AS FRONT REMAINS POISED TO THE NORTH WITH SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AND APPROACH OF MID LVL LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE READINGS AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL THRU THE PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /7 AM SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST TO THE NORTH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE ACROSS THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK CAUSING THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS IN THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BECOMING SOUTHEAST BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. && .MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH 7 AM SATURDAY...THE 8 PM OBSERVATION FROM BUOY020 INDICATED WINDS WERE EAST AROUND 14 KTS AND SEAS WERE AROUND 3 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 8 SECONDS. WEAK TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LWR TX COASTAL WATERS THRU THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WITH BROAD LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AND EASTERLY LLV FLOW OVRNGT INTO FRI. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH WILL ALLOW LOW LVL WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHEAST WITH TIME BY FRI NGT INTO EARLY SAT. THIS SFC FEATURE COMBINED WITH A MID LVL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THRU THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...OVERALL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS THRU EARLY SAT. 7 AM SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE MARINE AREAS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY SHIFTING THE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. LOW TO MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MARINE AREAS SATURDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. && .AVIATION...THE 3 LOCAL TAF SITES ARE REPORTING CLEAR SKIES WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE BREEZE THIS EVENING. FAIRLY QUIET CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVRNGT UNDERNEATH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LIGHT WINDS. A FEW STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS COULD BE POSSIBLE AROUND KBRO EARLY IN THE MRNG WITH GENERAL SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING BY MID TO LATE MRNG ELSEWHERE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN POSSIBLE THRU FRI AFTN. LIGHT WINDS FRI MRNG WILL BECOME MODERATE FROM THE E TO NE THRU THE DAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD WITH SCT TO BKN CU DECKS DEVELOPING BY LATE MRNG AND PERSISTING THRU LATE AFTN/EARLY EVE. && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BROWNSVILLE 57/65
FLUS44 KFWD 030401 HWOFWD HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1101 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-040415- MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN- HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS- ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL- JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO- FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE- LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON- 1101 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 ON LABOR DAY...AND AREA WIDE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$
FLUS44 KSHV 021721 HWOSHV HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA 1221 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 ARZ050-051-059>061-070>072-LAZ001>003-010-017-OKZ077-TXZ096-097- 108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-031730- SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE- COLUMBIA-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-DE SOTO-SABINE LA-MCCURTAIN- RED RIVER-BOWIE-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR- MARION-SMITH-GREGG-HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES- SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX- 1221 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND FOR DEEP EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS OVER THE AREA. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS TO 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...THEN DIMINISHING THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...AN ADDITIONAL STRONGER AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WILL BE AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING ACROSS OKLAHOMA. SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER OKLAHOMA...AS THE THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE...BUT SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT STILL GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... ISOLATED...TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS FRIDAY...AS THE COOL FRONT PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS...SKY WARN NETWORKS...AND HAM RADIO OPERATORS...SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT. $$ ARZ073-LAZ004>006-011>014-018>022-031730- UNION AR-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-UNION LA-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON- OUACHITA-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE- 1221 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT FROM EL DORADO TO NATCHITOCHES AND POINTS EAST...AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS FRIDAY...AS A COOL FRONT PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$ 24
FLUS44 KOUN 030513
HWOOUN
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1213 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010
OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-031200-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-
ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-
WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-CLEVELAND-
POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-
COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-FOARD-WILBARGER-
WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
1213 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2010
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
NO ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA AND ALL OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...WITH CHANCES DECREASING
WITH TIME. THE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHLY ELEVATED AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AND COOLER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS IN
BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.
PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT FRIDAY SEP 3.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
A DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...KEEPING PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.
MOISTURE WILL THEN RETURN...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.
THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT
5 AM FRIDAY. UNSCHEDULED UPDATES MAY ALSO BE ISSUED.
$$
FLUS44 KEWX 020940 HWOEWX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX 440 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-031100- LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA- GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE- MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA- FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT- 440 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAY TWO FRIDAY... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT FRIDAY. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. .DAYS THREE THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$
FLUS44 KCRP 020923 HWOCRP HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX 423 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-030930- BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS- BAYS AND WATERWAYS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO PORT O'CONNOR- COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM PORT ARANSAS TO MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL- JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN- 423 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS AND THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 DEGREES CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 110 DEGREES AT TIMES. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 AND 109 WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. $$ TE/GW
FLUS44 KHGX 021145 HWOHGX HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 645 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-031145- AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND- GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA- MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON- WHARTON- 645 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES TODAY. PERSONS WHO WILL BE OUTDOORS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD SHOULD TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR AIR CONDITIONING. DO NOT LEAVE CHILDREN OR PETS UNATTENDED FOR ANY LENGTH OF TIME IN VEHICLES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS DAYTIME HEATING INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE. GUSTY WINDS... CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH THREE...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD-TO- GROUND LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS. .DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$
FLUS44 KAMA 030346 AAB HWOAMA TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX 1045 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-031100- ARMSTRONG-BEAVER-CARSON-CIMARRON-COLLINGSWORTH-DALLAM-DEAF SMITH- DONLEY-GRAY-HANSFORD-HARTLEY-HEMPHILL-HUTCHINSON-LIPSCOMB-MOORE- OCHILTREE-OLDHAM-POTTER-RANDALL-ROBERTS-SHERMAN-TEXAS-WHEELER- 1045 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. .DAY ONE... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AREA WIDE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. $$ ANDRADE ANDRADE
FLUS44 KLUB 030227 HWOLUB HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 927 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 TXZ021>044-040230- PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE- FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING- YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL- 927 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. $$
FLUS44 KSJT 021953 HWOSJT HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 253 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139- 140-154-155-168>170-032000- FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO- CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD- TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE- MASON- 253 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS EXCEEDING 60 MPH AND DEADLY LIGHTNING. ALSO...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WE MAY NEED TO ACTIVATE SPOTTERS THIS EVENING IN THE BIG COUNTRY. $$
FLUS44 KMAF 021915 HWOMAF HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 215 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-031915- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES- DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL- VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS- LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN- DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU- BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS- 215 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 /115 PM MDT THU SEP 2 2010/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY WITH THESE STORMS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH WILL BE LIKELY FOR GAPS AND PASSES. WINDS MAY REACH UP TO 30 MPH IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN... SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO... AND THE UPPER TRANS PECOS. $$ THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/ HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND
FLUS44 KEPZ 021718 HWOEPZ HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 1112 AM MDT THU SEP 2 2010 NMZ022>025-030>032-TXZ055-056-031715- SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/LOWER GILA REGION-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES REGION- TULAROSA BASIN/SOUTHERN DESERT-SOUTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS- SOUTHWEST DESERT/BOOTHEEL-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN- SOUTHERN DESERT-EL PASO-HUDSPETH- 1112 AM MDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN MAINLY HUDPSETH COUNTY AND EASTERN OTERO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD BE LIMITED MOSTLY TO MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EAST OF DEMING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTERS SHOULD REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER OR FLOODING TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AND THIS OFFICE. $$
FLUS44 KLCH 020944 HWOLCH HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 444 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055- TXZ180>182-201-215-216-031000- SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD- ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA- LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY- LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE- 444 AM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA... SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING IT TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS FORECAST TO FILTER OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EACH MORNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA. AFTER THE DRY WEEKEND...ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN OF SMALL RAIN CHANCES. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED $$ 25
FLUS44 KBRO 030240 AAA HWOBRO HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX 940 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-TXZ248>257-031100- LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO- LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX- LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX- COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE OUT 20 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD OUT 20 NM- WATERS FROM PORT MANSFIELD TO THE RIO GRANDE EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM- WATERS FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT MANSFIELD EXTENDING FROM 20 TO 60 NM-ZAPATA-JIM HOGG-BROOKS-KENEDY-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY- INLAND CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON- 940 PM CDT THU SEP 2 2010 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE LAGUNA MADRE. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. $$